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| Scottish nationalists are salivating over the Brexit spoils | |
| (3 days later) | |
| Like a drunk man leaving the dance floor, the UK’s slow, anarchic exit from the EU continues and the Scottish nationalists can scarce believe the abundance of fresh opportunities that have landed at their feet. Their biggest task now is to decide how to deploy them and when? | Like a drunk man leaving the dance floor, the UK’s slow, anarchic exit from the EU continues and the Scottish nationalists can scarce believe the abundance of fresh opportunities that have landed at their feet. Their biggest task now is to decide how to deploy them and when? |
| More than three years after the first referendum on Scottish independence, the 45% who voted to leave the UK have never wavered, with polls consistently showing a slight increase. On its own, this ought to concern unionists. They had convinced themselves that a Tory resurgence in Scotland had occurred under Ruth Davidson’s energetic leadership and that this had finally put independence beyond the reach of the nationalists for the time being. However, the “resurgence” had been built on sand. The new intake of Scottish Tory MPs and local councillors began to resemble a 19th-century freak-show accompanied by an unlovely symphony of flutes and banjos; accordingly, they have since assumed their normal third place in the polls. | More than three years after the first referendum on Scottish independence, the 45% who voted to leave the UK have never wavered, with polls consistently showing a slight increase. On its own, this ought to concern unionists. They had convinced themselves that a Tory resurgence in Scotland had occurred under Ruth Davidson’s energetic leadership and that this had finally put independence beyond the reach of the nationalists for the time being. However, the “resurgence” had been built on sand. The new intake of Scottish Tory MPs and local councillors began to resemble a 19th-century freak-show accompanied by an unlovely symphony of flutes and banjos; accordingly, they have since assumed their normal third place in the polls. |
| At the same time, the UK government’s chaotic and feckless approach to Brexit has unravelled gloriously before Scottish nationalist eyes. Each week brings a fresh windfall and these are being banked by SNP strategists. Boris Johnson’s unhinged speech last week failed to mention the critical post-Brexit relationship between the north and south of Ireland. Yet any ringfenced status for Ulster in respect of trade and a border with the Republic of Ireland would be at the expense of Scotland and seen to be so. | At the same time, the UK government’s chaotic and feckless approach to Brexit has unravelled gloriously before Scottish nationalist eyes. Each week brings a fresh windfall and these are being banked by SNP strategists. Boris Johnson’s unhinged speech last week failed to mention the critical post-Brexit relationship between the north and south of Ireland. Yet any ringfenced status for Ulster in respect of trade and a border with the Republic of Ireland would be at the expense of Scotland and seen to be so. |
| Not that the Irish are complaining much. They are already relishing the prospect of being accorded their own special status within the EU as its main English-speaking trading post and one happily located at the heart of the British Isles. Last year, Ireland made a formal bid for the European Medicines Agency to relocate to Dublin from its London office. This was part of an EU-wide feeding frenzy to snap up the spoils of Brexit at the expense of the UK. In the event, it lost out to Amsterdam. | Not that the Irish are complaining much. They are already relishing the prospect of being accorded their own special status within the EU as its main English-speaking trading post and one happily located at the heart of the British Isles. Last year, Ireland made a formal bid for the European Medicines Agency to relocate to Dublin from its London office. This was part of an EU-wide feeding frenzy to snap up the spoils of Brexit at the expense of the UK. In the event, it lost out to Amsterdam. |
| Thus, an agency with around 800 high-earning and taxpaying employees will leave the UK. Many of the UK nationals on its staff won’t locate and will become unemployed. The European Banking Authority has gone the same way. This might even cost lives as the British Medical Association seeks to plug the huge gaps in validating medicines that will ensue. The trickle will soon become a spate. | Thus, an agency with around 800 high-earning and taxpaying employees will leave the UK. Many of the UK nationals on its staff won’t locate and will become unemployed. The European Banking Authority has gone the same way. This might even cost lives as the British Medical Association seeks to plug the huge gaps in validating medicines that will ensue. The trickle will soon become a spate. |
| Underpinning all of this is the recent economic impact report that showed every region of the UK and Scotland would suffer grievously as a result of Brexit. This was the report whose existence the Brexit secretary, David Davis, had denied and which Theresa May had tried to suppress. | Underpinning all of this is the recent economic impact report that showed every region of the UK and Scotland would suffer grievously as a result of Brexit. This was the report whose existence the Brexit secretary, David Davis, had denied and which Theresa May had tried to suppress. |
| The hard-right vanguard driving Brexit had expected the remaining 27 EU states to fragment and waver in the face of the UK’s democratically backed resolve. They would fall into two camps – those with a surplus and those with a deficit – and begin to falter. This was to grievously underestimate the sense of unity and purpose of the remaining states. Do these people never read the European press? | The hard-right vanguard driving Brexit had expected the remaining 27 EU states to fragment and waver in the face of the UK’s democratically backed resolve. They would fall into two camps – those with a surplus and those with a deficit – and begin to falter. This was to grievously underestimate the sense of unity and purpose of the remaining states. Do these people never read the European press? |
| The Brexiters are deluding themselves, too, if they don’t believe the EU will warn their main trading partners to make life as difficult as possible for the UK in trade negotiations. May might talk fondly of a warm and friendly post-Brexit relationship with the EU but that ship sailed as soon as the likes of Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox began to squawk. The collective arrogance of these men has hardened the resolve of the EU. | The Brexiters are deluding themselves, too, if they don’t believe the EU will warn their main trading partners to make life as difficult as possible for the UK in trade negotiations. May might talk fondly of a warm and friendly post-Brexit relationship with the EU but that ship sailed as soon as the likes of Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox began to squawk. The collective arrogance of these men has hardened the resolve of the EU. |
| The SNP is now faced with a dilemma, although it is one it could only have dreamed of a year ago, when May refused to permit a second independence referendum. Her reasons for rejecting the sovereign will of the Scottish parliament then were that for the good of the entire UK, Brexit trumped everything. That’s going well, isn’t it? | The SNP is now faced with a dilemma, although it is one it could only have dreamed of a year ago, when May refused to permit a second independence referendum. Her reasons for rejecting the sovereign will of the Scottish parliament then were that for the good of the entire UK, Brexit trumped everything. That’s going well, isn’t it? |
| So, does the SNP go for an early referendum in spring 2019 or wait two years, when the full extent of the Brexit apocalypse will have become apparent to all? The smart money favours the latter. With that option, though, comes the uncertainty of a Holyrood election that may not deliver an overall pro-independence majority. Both options will be scrutinised in the forthcoming contest to be SNP deputy leader. | So, does the SNP go for an early referendum in spring 2019 or wait two years, when the full extent of the Brexit apocalypse will have become apparent to all? The smart money favours the latter. With that option, though, comes the uncertainty of a Holyrood election that may not deliver an overall pro-independence majority. Both options will be scrutinised in the forthcoming contest to be SNP deputy leader. |
| From this position, the Scottish nationalists can only lose the second independence referendum. One prominent west of Scotland financial figure I spoke to last week is moving to a pro-independence position, having voted No in 2014. “Brexit has removed the union’s most potent weapon in any new referendum. The nationalists can now afford to be realistic about the risks of independence. For no matter how big are the risks, they are as nothing compared to life outside the EU.” He didn’t even get round to mention the resurgent price of oil or recent discovery of new oilfields off the Scottish coast. | From this position, the Scottish nationalists can only lose the second independence referendum. One prominent west of Scotland financial figure I spoke to last week is moving to a pro-independence position, having voted No in 2014. “Brexit has removed the union’s most potent weapon in any new referendum. The nationalists can now afford to be realistic about the risks of independence. For no matter how big are the risks, they are as nothing compared to life outside the EU.” He didn’t even get round to mention the resurgent price of oil or recent discovery of new oilfields off the Scottish coast. |
| A network of Yes groups all across Scotland has begun to regroup and reform. I was sent a list of more than 150 of them and this was by no means complete. This time, they will be demanding more autonomy from SNP central control. There will be no further need for a white paper as Brexit has already fulfilled much of the promise of the first one. If Yes activists and their internet wing can stop their abuse of independence supporters who do not favour the SNP, then independence is theirs for the taking. | A network of Yes groups all across Scotland has begun to regroup and reform. I was sent a list of more than 150 of them and this was by no means complete. This time, they will be demanding more autonomy from SNP central control. There will be no further need for a white paper as Brexit has already fulfilled much of the promise of the first one. If Yes activists and their internet wing can stop their abuse of independence supporters who do not favour the SNP, then independence is theirs for the taking. |
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