Why I Am Dreading Netanyahu’s Departure

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/14/opinion/netanyahu-israel-departure-dread.html

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TEL AVIV — It is time to prepare for an Israel without Benjamin Netanyahu. I’m dreading it — and you should, too.

Of course, in a democratic country no leader lasts forever. So for Mr. Netanyahu to be replaced eventually is the normal and desirable course of politics. It’s also a topic that is much on Israelis’ minds these days. The prime minister is the subject of a number of corruption investigations, and there’s talk of him being forced out or losing an early election (though an early election was avoided this week).

Still, if you want to see Israel succeed, you should pause before getting too excited about this looming departure. That’s because Mr. Netanyahu has two things that his successor — no matter who that might be — will not have: vast experience and meaningful achievements.

Mr. Netanyahu is already the second-longest-serving prime minister in Israel’s 70-year history. Only the state’s founder, David Ben-Gurion, served longer. And he is a master of the political game. No one becomes prime minister in a parliamentary system by accident. No one is able to form coalitions and sustain them without being canny, ruthless and formidable.

Mr. Netanyahu has it all, and then some. He failed as a leader in the 1990s and recovered. From 2003 to 2005 he was a masterful finance minister — one of the few to hold the thankless job of budgetary naysayer and emerge politically unscarred. As prime minister, he has led Israel through diplomatic negotiations, military operations and financial upheavals.

Israel will, of course, survive without him. But Mr. Netanyahu, as long as he is not forced out, is undisputedly the most experienced leader Israelis have in stock. In fact, he is the only one with real experience. The details and names can be a bore, but those who hope to succeed him are a former media personality who served briefly and unsuccessfully as finance minister, a former minister for environmental protection whose party got tired of him within a few months of taking over and an education minister with a lot of ambition but few supporters.

Within Mr. Netanyahu’s own party, Likud, there is a former minister of education who quit politics a few years ago and has been waiting on the sidelines, a transportation minister with experience as agriculture minister and the speaker of the Knesset.

Successful prime ministers come in many shapes but usually share two main characteristics: experience in security and foreign policy, and intimate familiarity with the nuts and bolts of parliamentary politics. Whoever ends up replacing Mr. Netanyahu is going to be one of the least experienced and commanding prime ministers in Israel’s history — that is, aside from Mr. Netanyahu himself when he first took office.

Mr. Netanyahu would probably be the first to admit that history has been unkind to inexperienced Israeli leaders. There are calmer countries, in which one can have less experience and learn on the job. There are countries that don’t have an array of enemies seeking their destruction, that aren’t situated in a treacherous region and that don’t face a constant barrage of crises. And then there is Israel. Here, the prime minister must hit the ground running or face calamity.

The second half of the 1990s was a master class in Israeli politics and political novices. First, Mr. Netanyahu, at the time a junior diplomat, was elected in 1996. His term was tumultuous, and after three years he was thrown out of office by the voters. He was replaced by another newcomer: Ehud Barak, a decorated and respected general with little aptitude for political life. Mr. Barak survived for about a year before his coalition collapsed. As he was unceremoniously replaced, the Palestinian intifada raged across Israel.

After less than five years — the total time of both their governments — Israel came back to its senses by electing Ariel Sharon. Mr. Sharon was both an experienced military man and a crafty political tactician. Israel needed someone to trust in uncertain times, and he was there.

Alas, uncertain times persist. Iran is making inroads in the region, Russia is suddenly calling the shots, and in the United States an unpredictable president surprises the world on a weekly basis. There are many good reasons to want Mr. Netanyahu’s long hold on power to end. But it’s hard to resist the sentiment that circumstances like these require a steady hand. They call for a leader who already made his share of mistakes and learned his share of painful lessons.

It is too early to count Mr. Netanyahu out, as the columnist Bret Stephens wisely wrote in these pages. If an early election is called, most polls predict that he would win another round. If he is indicted, he might still be able to persuade his coalition partners to wait for a court verdict before forcing him out.

The public supports him not just because of his many achievements as prime minister but also because the alternatives don’t seem better: Another young, inexperienced leader? Another novice who will lose his coalition within two years? Another political amateur who will learn on the job? Do we really need another 1996 model of Mr. Netanyahu when we have the smarter, more powerful, 2018 model?