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Britain faces tax rises to eliminate deficit; trade war fears weigh on markets - business live Britain faces tax rises to eliminate deficit; trade war fears weigh on markets - as it happened
(about 1 hour later)
And finally, Wall Street has closed lower for the third day running.
Dow closes more than 200 points lower, as Boeing slides on fears of a China trade war https://t.co/mn8zwQpLFs pic.twitter.com/ugGU45h4Nx
Jitters over the possibility of a trade war with China saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average finish 247 points lower at 24,759.39, a drop of 1%.
The S&P 500 lost 0.6%, while the Nasdaq dipped by 0.2%.
Traders are now pondering the prospect of Larry Kudlow joining the White House; as a critic of tariffs, could he steer Trump away?
"My immediate reaction was, 'Yes, I'm honored to take the job'," says Larry Kudlow, President Trump's choice for chair of the National Economic Council. pic.twitter.com/s9wPEvZKcC
Here’s our news story about Kudlow’s appointment:
That’s all for tonight. GW
Three-quarters of the 30 stocks on the Dow Jones industrial average are now in the red, pulling the index down by 253 points, or just over 1%.Three-quarters of the 30 stocks on the Dow Jones industrial average are now in the red, pulling the index down by 253 points, or just over 1%.
Chemicals group DowDuPont is now leading the selloff, down 1.95%, followed by airline maker Boeing (-1.8%), consumer goods producer Johnson & Johnson (-1.3%) and pharmaceuticals firm Pfizer.Chemicals group DowDuPont is now leading the selloff, down 1.95%, followed by airline maker Boeing (-1.8%), consumer goods producer Johnson & Johnson (-1.3%) and pharmaceuticals firm Pfizer.
The prospect of an escalating trade war, involving China, is worrying Wall Street.The prospect of an escalating trade war, involving China, is worrying Wall Street.
Yesterday, it was reported that Donald Trump was seeking to impose tariffs on up to $60bn of Chinese imports, and could target the technology and telecommunications sectors.Yesterday, it was reported that Donald Trump was seeking to impose tariffs on up to $60bn of Chinese imports, and could target the technology and telecommunications sectors.
Boeing could be a major casualty if China retaliated, explained Richard Aboulafia of consulting firm Teal Group Corporation to the New York Times:Boeing could be a major casualty if China retaliated, explained Richard Aboulafia of consulting firm Teal Group Corporation to the New York Times:
The likelihood of retaliation by their biggest single market, China, elevates this from an irritant to potentially disastrous, if not catastrophic.The likelihood of retaliation by their biggest single market, China, elevates this from an irritant to potentially disastrous, if not catastrophic.
“A trade war is the simplest way to cut off this fantastic growth they have enjoyed.”“A trade war is the simplest way to cut off this fantastic growth they have enjoyed.”
More here: Trump’s Tariffs Make Boeing a Potential Target in a Trade WarMore here: Trump’s Tariffs Make Boeing a Potential Target in a Trade War
Donald Trump appears to have a new economic adviser, less than a week after Gary Cohn resigned, according to reports from America.Donald Trump appears to have a new economic adviser, less than a week after Gary Cohn resigned, according to reports from America.
CNBC is reporting that Larry Kudlow, the Wall Street economist-turned-TV commentator has accepted the post, and will be named on Thursday.CNBC is reporting that Larry Kudlow, the Wall Street economist-turned-TV commentator has accepted the post, and will be named on Thursday.
BREAKING: President Trump to name Larry Kudlow NEC chairman as early as tomorrow, sources say. https://t.co/SDzQDl7MGu pic.twitter.com/dxwkDNFhTjBREAKING: President Trump to name Larry Kudlow NEC chairman as early as tomorrow, sources say. https://t.co/SDzQDl7MGu pic.twitter.com/dxwkDNFhTj
Reuters has more info:Reuters has more info:
Trump told reporters on Tuesday that Kudlow, a Republican who served as an economic adviser to former President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s and also worked on Wall Street, had “a very good chance” at being selected to replace Cohn.Trump told reporters on Tuesday that Kudlow, a Republican who served as an economic adviser to former President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s and also worked on Wall Street, had “a very good chance” at being selected to replace Cohn.
Kudlow, an informal advisor to Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, had criticized the president’s decision last week to place steep tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum, saying they would harm steel-consuming producers. Cohn also opposed the tariffs.Kudlow, an informal advisor to Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, had criticized the president’s decision last week to place steep tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum, saying they would harm steel-consuming producers. Cohn also opposed the tariffs.
But Trump said on Wednesday that Kudlow had “come around” to view tariffs as a useful tool for renegotiating trade deals.But Trump said on Wednesday that Kudlow had “come around” to view tariffs as a useful tool for renegotiating trade deals.
After a bright start, the FTSE 100 ended the day down 6 points, or 0.1%.After a bright start, the FTSE 100 ended the day down 6 points, or 0.1%.
The Europe-wide Stoxx 600 dipped by 0.15%.The Europe-wide Stoxx 600 dipped by 0.15%.
Trade war fears are swirling through the markets again, warns David Madden of CMC Markets.Trade war fears are swirling through the markets again, warns David Madden of CMC Markets.
Growing fears of a trade war is weighing on US stocks, and indices like the Dow Jones are losing ground quickly. Dealers are fearful that China will react to President Trump’s tariffs by imposing levies on the aerospace industry, and Boeing shares have taken a hit.Growing fears of a trade war is weighing on US stocks, and indices like the Dow Jones are losing ground quickly. Dealers are fearful that China will react to President Trump’s tariffs by imposing levies on the aerospace industry, and Boeing shares have taken a hit.
Update: the markets are turning south, after Donald Trump threw more fuel on investors’ trade war fears.Update: the markets are turning south, after Donald Trump threw more fuel on investors’ trade war fears.
Having opened higher, the Dow is now down almost 300 points in New York. Boeing, the aircraft maker, is driving the sell off.Having opened higher, the Dow is now down almost 300 points in New York. Boeing, the aircraft maker, is driving the sell off.
Europe has handed back its earlier gains too.Europe has handed back its earlier gains too.
This comes after Trump tweeted a threat to take more action on trade, amid speculation of new tariffs on China.This comes after Trump tweeted a threat to take more action on trade, amid speculation of new tariffs on China.
We cannot keep a blind eye to the rampant unfair trade practices against our Country!We cannot keep a blind eye to the rampant unfair trade practices against our Country!
European and US stock markets are mostly higher today.European and US stock markets are mostly higher today.
Despite the IFS’s gloomy prognosis on Britain’s finances, the FTSE 100 index of major blue-chip companies has gained 28 points, or 0.4%. Prudential is leading the way, up 6.5%, after announcing plans to split itself in two.Despite the IFS’s gloomy prognosis on Britain’s finances, the FTSE 100 index of major blue-chip companies has gained 28 points, or 0.4%. Prudential is leading the way, up 6.5%, after announcing plans to split itself in two.
Shares are also up across Europe, after ECB president Mario Draghi gave a dovish speech this morning.Shares are also up across Europe, after ECB president Mario Draghi gave a dovish speech this morning.
Draghi insisted that eurozone monetary policy ‘will remain patient, persistent and prudent’ - which weakened the euro, helping exporters.Draghi insisted that eurozone monetary policy ‘will remain patient, persistent and prudent’ - which weakened the euro, helping exporters.
The US stock market has also opened a little higher, as traders tried to focus on economic fundamentals rather than the chaos in the White House following Rex Tillerson’s sacking yesterday.The US stock market has also opened a little higher, as traders tried to focus on economic fundamentals rather than the chaos in the White House following Rex Tillerson’s sacking yesterday.
John McDonnell MP, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, has responded to the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ report into the UK’s finances:John McDonnell MP, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, has responded to the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ report into the UK’s finances:
“The IFS today confirmed the further bad news working families face after nearly eight years of Tory economic failure. Despite the Chancellor’s spin yesterday, the IFS has revealed that there may be £30 billion of new tax rises and spending cuts to come.“The IFS today confirmed the further bad news working families face after nearly eight years of Tory economic failure. Despite the Chancellor’s spin yesterday, the IFS has revealed that there may be £30 billion of new tax rises and spending cuts to come.
“Under the Tories, it won’t be the richest who are hit by these tax rises and austerity cuts, but the poorest – largely families and children – who will bear the brunt of their heartless economic plans.“Under the Tories, it won’t be the richest who are hit by these tax rises and austerity cuts, but the poorest – largely families and children – who will bear the brunt of their heartless economic plans.
“The next Labour government will end austerity and build an economy that works for the many, not the few.”“The next Labour government will end austerity and build an economy that works for the many, not the few.”
In other news, American retail sales has fallen for the third month running.In other news, American retail sales has fallen for the third month running.
It’s a small drop - just 0.1% in February - but also the third decline in a row, for the first time since 2012.It’s a small drop - just 0.1% in February - but also the third decline in a row, for the first time since 2012.
Economist had expected a rise of 0.3%, so this may signal that US consumers aren’t quite as optimistic as thought. The report shows that demand for big-ticket items, such as cars, declined.Economist had expected a rise of 0.3%, so this may signal that US consumers aren’t quite as optimistic as thought. The report shows that demand for big-ticket items, such as cars, declined.
US retail sales have definitely flattened out over the last three months. It does happen from time to time, even during an ongoing upswing and households maybe needed a breather after the Q4 spending surge (annualised 3m/3m growth was 7.7% in Nov and 3.0% in Feb). pic.twitter.com/s81bM0m4n6US retail sales have definitely flattened out over the last three months. It does happen from time to time, even during an ongoing upswing and households maybe needed a breather after the Q4 spending surge (annualised 3m/3m growth was 7.7% in Nov and 3.0% in Feb). pic.twitter.com/s81bM0m4n6
Here’s our news story on the IFS’s spring statement analysis:Here’s our news story on the IFS’s spring statement analysis:
Breaking away from Britain’s finances, we have bad news from the retail sector.
Toys R Us is shutting all 100 of its UK stores after administrators failed to find a buyer for the collapsed retailer - meaning 3,000 jobs are being lost.
Moorfields, who took control of Toys R Us late last month, has been unable to find a buyer for Toys R Us.
Press Association has more details:
It is thought that Moorfields will now begin a six-week “wind down” of the store estate.
Moorfields will begin with the closure of at least 26 loss-making stores earmarked late last year, when Toys R Us pushed through a restructuring before its demise.
An official announcement is expected later on Wednesday.
Over in parliament, Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are clashing over NHS spending (and other issues). My colleague Andy Sparrow is covering all the action in his Politics liveblog:
The Treasury has responded to the IFS’s analysis, pointing out that the deficit has fallen steadily in recent years.
A spokesperson says:
“Our balanced approach has reduced the deficit while also cutting taxes for over 30 million people and investing in our vital public services. We are training more doctors, more schools are rated as outstanding and we are funding the second largest defence budget in NATO.
Thanks to the hard work of the British people we will now see the first sustained fall in debt in 17 years.”
Yesterday, the Office for Budget Responsibility reported that Britain’s current budget (day-to-day spending, rather than investment) will move into surplus in the next financial year.
The IFS’s verdict might come as a nasty surprise to readers of the Daily Express, who woke up to the promise of tax cuts today.
But as the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg points out, some politicians have been suggesting taxes may have to rise to cover the NHS’s demands :
Not so surprising some in govt are talking about tax rises - that light at the end of the tunnel is pretty faint https://t.co/jCEwkxEkx4
Economics journalist Dharshini David points out that Britain might actually need to raise more than £40bn in extra taxes (£30bn to eliminate the deficit, plus £11bn to address the ageing population).
That’s a substantial bill for each adult:
so to balance budget, maintain spending as % GDP & provide for health/social care/pension costs of aging population, every adult in UK will need to pay extra £800/yr in tax by 2025 https://t.co/bpuQAwUYIK
So much for Hammond’s promise of light at the end of the tunnel....
Wednesday’s Daily EXPRESS: “At Last! Tax Cuts On Way” #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/401XBmpyWY
Britain could avoid the need to hike taxes by £30bn if it abandoned the aim of eliminating the deficit by the mid-2020s.
Recent history shows that deficit reduction targets are more honoured in the breach than in the observance (George Osborne’s original plan was to balance the books two years ago).
The IFS’s Carl Emmerson suspects that the government won’t balance the books by 2025. But even if it doesn’t, there are many “significant and politically difficult” challenges to be addressed, given the rising spending needs, looming welfare cuts, pressure on public services, and Brexit.
Overall, regardless of whether or not the deficit is eliminated by mid-2020s the UK public finances face substantial pressures with many significant and politically difficult long-term fiscal challenges ahead that need addressing #SpringStatement https://t.co/rD31y9SBOz
The IFS’s Carl Emmerson is outlining how Britain’s public sector has faced sustained pressures in recent years, with the health and prison services seeing particular strain.
He’s also showing how the ageing population will put more demands on public services, making it even harder to cut the deficit or resist tax rises.
NHS is dealing with a sustained period of historically tight spending settlements #SpringStatement pic.twitter.com/6DCabKOBNN
Pressure on public services especially visible in prisons with rises in assaults on staff and prisoners, and prisoner self-harm @instituteforgov #SpringStatement pic.twitter.com/ISoJIE07cB
We would need a substantial increase in spending as a percentage of national income to meet pressure of demographic changes #SpringStatement https://t.co/rD31y9SBOz pic.twitter.com/6HFcq20hRL
The IFS also remind us that three-quarters of the savings from welfare cuts announced since July 2015 have not yet hit (as Resolution pointed out earlier).
Three quarters of the welfare cuts announced since 2015 are yet to take effect. In other words big benefit cuts still to come pic.twitter.com/5jdpuMEAae
The IFS’s Paul Johnson ends his presentation by urging us all to focus on the reality of Britain’s financial situation.
Don’t be lured by the “spin and bluster of politicians on all sides” who pretend there are easy solutions, that the promised land is just around the corner, or that they can reinvent the laws of economics, Johnson says, concluding:
There aren’t. It isn’t. And they can’t.
The IFS’s Helen Miller is tweeting some key points from the IFS’s report - none of them are very pleasant reading, alas.
Meeting the govt target to get a balanced budget would require an additional £18bn of cuts #SpringStatement pic.twitter.com/uwth6zNLYx
The size of the state as a share of the national income is only just back to its pre-crisis level. But while we are spending a greater share on some areas such as health and overseas aid, we are spending a lower share elsewhere #SpringStatement pic.twitter.com/DVuf9oxXc5
Now to the challenges ahead. In my opinion the biggest ones are around how we're going to deal with growing pressures on public spending and weaknesses in tax system - will we get serious about tackling these? #SpringStatement pic.twitter.com/TcgIRgxUg2
Surveys are starting to show growing public support for more tax & spend. What we need to see now is more debate about who should be paying more tax - the income rich, the wealthly, the old, all of us? 'someone else' is not a good answer pic.twitter.com/bTnI50K956
The IFS has also warned that it will be difficult for the government to raise taxes, especially if Brexit drives EU citizens away.
Director Paul Johnson says:
He [Philip Hammond] has been unable to tackle the problems posed by the increasing numbers of self employed and company owner managers, who pay less tax than similarly remunerated employees: the cost of this is forecast to grow from a bit over £10 billion now to around £15 billion or so in five years time.
He – like his predecessor – looks wholly unable to maintain the real value of fuel duties. By taking huge numbers of people out of the income tax net, while raising tax on those with the highest incomes, we have become very dependent on a very small number of taxpayers to pay a very large fraction of the overall tax bill. That may be desirable on distributional grounds, but it makes tax revenues very sensitive to the incomes and behaviour of a small number of people. If high paid jobs (and EU citizens, who are well represented among high earners in the UK) relocate elsewhere the consequences for the Exchequer will be severe.