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Syria 'deconfliction hotline' in use by Russia and US, says Kremlin Syria crisis: US concerned military strike would 'escalate out of control'
(about 5 hours later)
Russia and the US are using a “deconfliction” telephone line for Syria, the Kremlin has said, as tensions mount over the prospect of a US strike on Russia’s Middle East ally. James Mattis, the US defense secretary, has said Washington is still looking for evidence on who carried out Saturday’s chemical weapons attack in Damascus and said his main concern about a military response was how to stop it “escalating out of control”.
“The line exists and it is active. In general, the line is used by both sides,” the Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters. However, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, said on Thurday that his government had “proof” that the government of Bashar al-Assad was responsible for the attack, which is reported to have killed about 50 people and affected hundreds more.
The US has threatened retaliation after a chemical attack at the weekend on Douma, a town in eastern Ghouta, outside Damascus. NBC and CNN quoted US officials as saying that blood and urine samples from the victims of Saturday’s attack showed traces of chlorine and a nerve agent, and that US intelligence had other evidence pointing to the regime’s culpability, which would be presented to the president.
But Mattis’s cautious tone on Thursday echoed a morning tweet by Donald Trump that appeared to walk back his threat of imminent action 24 hours earlier.
On Wednesday, the president tweeted that US missiles “will be coming” and told Russia, which has forces in Syria, to “get ready”. But the next morning, Trump tweeted that he “never said when an attack on Syria would take place”. An attack, the president said “ could be very soon or not so soon at all!”
In testimony to the House armed services committee, Mattis said that tweet meant that Trump “has not made a decision”. He pointed out that Trump would meet his top national security advisers at the White House on Thursday afternoon where he would be presented with a full range of options.
Analysts said the more measured tone suggested that the US and allies were prepared to take longer to ready a more comprehensive, multi-phase attack than the US missile salvo launched last April after a previous poison gas attack, while building pressure on Russia to rein in the regime’s worst atrocities and accept Assad’s departure as part of a Syrian political settlement.
At the UN, the Russian envoy, Vassily Nebenzia, said Russia’s “immediate priority is to avert the danger of war”.
Asked if he was referring to a war between the United States and Russia, Nebenzia told reporters: “We cannot exclude any possibilities unfortunately because we saw messages that are coming from Washington. They were very bellicose.”
Nebenzia added: “They know we are there. I wish there was dialect though the proper channels on this to avert any dangerous developments. The danger of escalation is higher than simply Syria because our military are there. So the situation is very dangerous.”
In Washington, Mattis voiced similar concerns.
“My strategic concern is how to we keep this from escalating out of control, if you get my drift,” he told members of Congress. In another marked contrast with Trump’s remarks on Saturday’s poison gas attack in Douma, Mattis said he believed chemical weapons had been used, but “we are looking for evidence” on who was responsible. Trump has blamed Assad and Russia for backing him.
Macron, who has repeatedly insisted that proven use of chemical weapons in Syria was a “red line” for France, said on Thursday that his government would decide its response “in due course”.
“We have the proof that last week chemical weapons were used – at least chlorine – and that they were used by the Assad regime,” Macron told a TV interviewer.
The French president said one of his aims in Syria was to “remove the regime’s chemical attack capabilities” once all information had been checked. But Macron repeated that he wanted to also avoid “an escalation”.
He said: “France will in no way allow an escalation or anything that would harm regional stability, but we cannot allow regimes that believe they can act with impunity to violate international law in the worst possible way.”
In London, Theresa May convened a cabinet meeting on Thursday afternoon that was expected to sign off on UK participation in US-led air strikes.
Inspectors from the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) were due to arrive in Damascus on Thursday, but they are not due to visit the site of the attack – until Saturday.
Mattis said repeatedly he believed use of chemical weapons was “inexcusable” and required a forceful response.
Asked about a legal justification for punitive strikes, he pointed to the presence of US troops in Syria, who could be vulnerable. He said: “We don’t have to wait until a chemical attack, when [chemical weapons] are be used in the same theatre we are operating in.”
The Kremlin said on Thursday that Russia and the US were currently using a “deconfliction” telephone line for Syria,
In theory there are three alternative responses - the first a punitive strike such as the US attack on the Shayrat air base in April 2017 that saw 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles hit the the air base in response to a chemical weapons attack.In theory there are three alternative responses - the first a punitive strike such as the US attack on the Shayrat air base in April 2017 that saw 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles hit the the air base in response to a chemical weapons attack.
The second level of attack is to seek to prevent Syria attempting to use chemical weapons again by destroying the relevant facilities, the means of delivery and imposing a punishment.The second level of attack is to seek to prevent Syria attempting to use chemical weapons again by destroying the relevant facilities, the means of delivery and imposing a punishment.
The third level of activity is to seek to weaken the entire Assad military infrastructure or even attack Assad's presidential palace, as well as Syrian military headquarters. The third level of activity is to seek to weaken the entire Assad military infrastructure or even attack Assad's presidential palace, as well as Syrian military headquarters. 
But there is no appetite in Western capitals to forcibly dislodge Assad from office, even if there may be an unspoken wish to change the way the Syrian government negotiates at UN peace talks in Geneva.But there is no appetite in Western capitals to forcibly dislodge Assad from office, even if there may be an unspoken wish to change the way the Syrian government negotiates at UN peace talks in Geneva.
On Thursday, Donald Trump appeared to row back on the prospect of an imminent strike with a tweet that said action could take place “very soon or not so soon at all”. Mike Pompeo, the CIA director and Trump’s pick for secretary of state, appeared to affirm at his confirmation hearing reports that about 200 Russian mercenaries were killed in a February clash with US-led forces in Syria. The deconfliction line between the US and Russian militaries was used during that incident.
On Wednesday he had warned Russia to “get ready” for a missile attack on its ally Syria, suggesting imminent retaliation. But on Thursday he wrote that he “never said when an attack on Syria would take place”. Nicholas Heras, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security, says that the US and its allies appeared to be preparing a more comprehensive assault on the sinews of Assad powers than the single Tomahawk missile barrage against a Syrian air base last year.
President Emmanuel Macron said France, a possible partner in US action, had proof the Syrian government carried out the chemical attack and would decide whether to strike back when all the necessary information had been gathered. “If you are going to conduct a campaign that goes beyond the strike in April, you need to plan out who does what,” Heras said. “What are the range of targets and who is responsible for putting a bomb on them? If they are going to do saturation strikes, they have to go after the air defences so that planes can come in to do really specific targeting. The more planes you see in the battlespace the more clear it will be multiple-day deep targeted campaign.”
The Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, said western threats to strike were based on “lies”, and that the west was lashing out after it lost its “bet” on opposition forces in eastern Ghouta. Heras said that the deliberative approach is also aimed at ratcheting up pressure on Vladimir Putin, to end his unstinting support of Assad.
The deconfliction hotline was established in 2016 between US central command in Qatar and its Russian equivalent in Syria. It is used to prevent a direct clash between US and Russian forces in the Syrian conflict, where Russia is backing the Assad government and the US supports some opposition forces. “They are trying to give time for Russia to come to the conclusion that the US and France and UK are serious,” he said. “Trump has entered his hard negotiation phase and is personally pissed off with Putin about this. He is asking: what are you dong to put Assad to heel and put him into retirement?”
Dozens of Russian mercenaries and other Assad supporters were killed at a Kurdish base earlier this year after an ill-fated assault backed by US airpower. The deconfliction line was used during that clash.
On Thursday, Peskov sidestepped more detailed questions about the discussions over the expected US strike, saying only that “both sides are using the line”.
In April 2017 the Russian military threatened to close the line after Trump ordered a missile strike against a Syrian airbase involved in a chemical attack. Moscow did not follow up the threat.
At the United Nations security council earlier this week, both Russia and the group of western allies led by the US voted against each other’s proposals for setting up a body dedicated to investigating the repeated use of poison gas in Syria.
On Thursday, the Russian foreign ministry called for the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons to deploy specialists before an expected missile strike by US forces, possibly supported by France and the UK.
“Any delay in visiting the location of the alleged incident could lead to another reckless move of Washington, which already fired missiles on Syria’s Shayrat airbase in April 2017 in violation of the UN charter and international law,” the ministry said in a statement.
There were signs that Moscow was already preparing for a missile strike. Satellite images released by the Israeli company ImageSat International showed ships had been deployed from Russia’s naval base in the Syrian city of Tartus.There were signs that Moscow was already preparing for a missile strike. Satellite images released by the Israeli company ImageSat International showed ships had been deployed from Russia’s naval base in the Syrian city of Tartus.
Russian media, including the respected business daily Kommersant, reported on Thursday that Russian officials were in contact with the Pentagon over the potential strikes and expected to receive coordinates of the targets before any attack.Russian media, including the respected business daily Kommersant, reported on Thursday that Russian officials were in contact with the Pentagon over the potential strikes and expected to receive coordinates of the targets before any attack.
SyriaSyria
US militaryUS military
RussiaRussia
Middle East and North AfricaMiddle East and North Africa
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