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How Theresa May benefits from letting Amber Rudd remain in firing line Theresa May benefits from Amber Rudd remaining in line of fire
(about 3 hours later)
Amber Rudd will be back at the dispatch box in the House of Commons on Monday afternoon, delivering yet another apology for her handling of the Windrush scandal – and trying to explain away the leaked targets memo.Amber Rudd will be back at the dispatch box in the House of Commons on Monday afternoon, delivering yet another apology for her handling of the Windrush scandal – and trying to explain away the leaked targets memo.
The beleaguered home secretary will face a stream of hostile questions from Diane Abbott on Labour’s frontbench, Yvette Cooper from her usual perch a few rows back and the Tottenham MP David Lammy, whose impassioned campaigning on the issue is widely respected at Westminster.The beleaguered home secretary will face a stream of hostile questions from Diane Abbott on Labour’s frontbench, Yvette Cooper from her usual perch a few rows back and the Tottenham MP David Lammy, whose impassioned campaigning on the issue is widely respected at Westminster.
But a much clearer signal of whether Rudd can survive may be behind her, in the number and demeanour of her own colleagues who turn up to show their support. At moments like this, political friends can really matter.But a much clearer signal of whether Rudd can survive may be behind her, in the number and demeanour of her own colleagues who turn up to show their support. At moments like this, political friends can really matter.
Her defence against the claim that she must have known about targets for removing migrants from the UK was already evident in Sunday’s outing by Brandon Lewis, the former immigration minister who is now Tory party chairman.Her defence against the claim that she must have known about targets for removing migrants from the UK was already evident in Sunday’s outing by Brandon Lewis, the former immigration minister who is now Tory party chairman.
Lewis barely sounded convinced himself by what he must have known was a weak defence of his former boss. While Rudd had known about, and indeed set, an “ambition” for removing more illegal immigrants, he insisted she had no idea that it had been cascaded down to individual Home Office outposts as a series of targets.Lewis barely sounded convinced himself by what he must have known was a weak defence of his former boss. While Rudd had known about, and indeed set, an “ambition” for removing more illegal immigrants, he insisted she had no idea that it had been cascaded down to individual Home Office outposts as a series of targets.
Even on the narrow point of whether Rudd knew targets existed – and thus misled parliament when she told the home affairs select committee “that is not how we operate” – it seemed flimsy.Even on the narrow point of whether Rudd knew targets existed – and thus misled parliament when she told the home affairs select committee “that is not how we operate” – it seemed flimsy.
But Rudd’s survival does not rest purely on her handling of the Windrush fiasco, as she herself has called it, and her Commons outings since.But Rudd’s survival does not rest purely on her handling of the Windrush fiasco, as she herself has called it, and her Commons outings since.
With fresh Windrush injustices still emerging almost daily, and a growing sense that other groups may well also have been snared in the teeth of the “hostile environment”, Theresa May will be cautious about allowing her home secretary to return to the backbenches.With fresh Windrush injustices still emerging almost daily, and a growing sense that other groups may well also have been snared in the teeth of the “hostile environment”, Theresa May will be cautious about allowing her home secretary to return to the backbenches.
Rudd is a lightning rod for public discontent and has loyally made her repeated apologies without allowing the blame to fall on to the prime minister and the tone and policies May set in her six years at the Home Office.Rudd is a lightning rod for public discontent and has loyally made her repeated apologies without allowing the blame to fall on to the prime minister and the tone and policies May set in her six years at the Home Office.
Rudd had been deemed a potential leadership rival. Allowing her to continue to take incoming fire, particularly as it undermines her reputation for brisk, well-briefed competence, must be highly tempting.Rudd had been deemed a potential leadership rival. Allowing her to continue to take incoming fire, particularly as it undermines her reputation for brisk, well-briefed competence, must be highly tempting.
And of course, as with every issue in this parliament, Brexit is relevant, too.And of course, as with every issue in this parliament, Brexit is relevant, too.
Backbench remainers, including Nicky Morgan, Anna Soubry and Nicholas Soames, threw their weight behind Rudd on Friday night after the long wait for a response from the Home Office to the leaked memo ended with the promise of a(nother) statement to parliament.Backbench remainers, including Nicky Morgan, Anna Soubry and Nicholas Soames, threw their weight behind Rudd on Friday night after the long wait for a response from the Home Office to the leaked memo ended with the promise of a(nother) statement to parliament.
That’s partly because they like Rudd – and believe the scandal ultimately reflects the illiberal policies championed by May. They fear any successor could be less likely to challenge the inclusion of students in the net migration target, for example.That’s partly because they like Rudd – and believe the scandal ultimately reflects the illiberal policies championed by May. They fear any successor could be less likely to challenge the inclusion of students in the net migration target, for example.
But it is also because she has been their doughtiest champion inside cabinet in the tug-of-war over how close Britain should remain to the European Union after Brexit.But it is also because she has been their doughtiest champion inside cabinet in the tug-of-war over how close Britain should remain to the European Union after Brexit.
The latest example came this weekend in reports that Rudd would be open to an arrangement with the EU that would replicate key elements of freedom of movement.The latest example came this weekend in reports that Rudd would be open to an arrangement with the EU that would replicate key elements of freedom of movement.
May would most likely feel obliged to replace her with another remainer to avoid upsetting the delicate balance at the top table and avoid tipping the balance in key parliamentary Brexit votes by creating another backbench rebel.May would most likely feel obliged to replace her with another remainer to avoid upsetting the delicate balance at the top table and avoid tipping the balance in key parliamentary Brexit votes by creating another backbench rebel.
But in the key arguments inside cabinet, a newbie might lack the power base to be influential for some time - and Britain’s negotiating position is being fought over now.But in the key arguments inside cabinet, a newbie might lack the power base to be influential for some time - and Britain’s negotiating position is being fought over now.
The fraught debate about the customs union is expected to come to a head this Wednesday at a meeting of the Brexit “war cabinet”, with May under intense pressure from leavers, and rumours that one or more could be prepared to walk.The fraught debate about the customs union is expected to come to a head this Wednesday at a meeting of the Brexit “war cabinet”, with May under intense pressure from leavers, and rumours that one or more could be prepared to walk.
With a threatened cabinet revolt on her hands, May is unlikely to deny Rudd the opportunity to keep throwing herself at the enemy, if she is prepared do so.With a threatened cabinet revolt on her hands, May is unlikely to deny Rudd the opportunity to keep throwing herself at the enemy, if she is prepared do so.
The mood among senior Conservatives this weekend was that for this and other reasons, the home secretary could still weather the storm, although one remarked acidly: “She’ll have to come up with a better line than I’ve heard so far.”The mood among senior Conservatives this weekend was that for this and other reasons, the home secretary could still weather the storm, although one remarked acidly: “She’ll have to come up with a better line than I’ve heard so far.”
On Monday afternoon, Rudd will need all the parliamentary friends she can muster as she faces the challenging task of insisting her “ambition” of boosting the number of people removed from Britain by 10% had nothing to do with the conditions that led to the Windrush crisis.On Monday afternoon, Rudd will need all the parliamentary friends she can muster as she faces the challenging task of insisting her “ambition” of boosting the number of people removed from Britain by 10% had nothing to do with the conditions that led to the Windrush crisis.
And with victims still coming forward with personal stories Rudd herself has called “heartbreaking”, the pressure for her to take full responsibility by stepping aside may yet prove irresistible.And with victims still coming forward with personal stories Rudd herself has called “heartbreaking”, the pressure for her to take full responsibility by stepping aside may yet prove irresistible.
Amber RuddAmber Rudd
Theresa MayTheresa May
ConservativesConservatives
Immigration and asylumImmigration and asylum
Commonwealth immigrationCommonwealth immigration
BrexitBrexit
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