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| Could Grenfell cost the Tories control of Kensington and Chelsea? | Could Grenfell cost the Tories control of Kensington and Chelsea? |
| (7 months later) | |
| In a church hall on a pretty Chelsea side-street lined with stuccoed Victorian houses, the local great and good gathered for a hustings before this week’s council elections. | In a church hall on a pretty Chelsea side-street lined with stuccoed Victorian houses, the local great and good gathered for a hustings before this week’s council elections. |
| There were grumbles about local planning and the proposed Crossrail station on Kings Road but, surprisingly for a borough which has been so traumatised by the tragedy, the Grenfell fire barely got a mention. | There were grumbles about local planning and the proposed Crossrail station on Kings Road but, surprisingly for a borough which has been so traumatised by the tragedy, the Grenfell fire barely got a mention. |
| “It does make me wonder whether they’re more concerned about hanging baskets than they are about what happened there,” said one attendee. “It felt like a different world.” | “It does make me wonder whether they’re more concerned about hanging baskets than they are about what happened there,” said one attendee. “It felt like a different world.” |
| A few days later, at the other end of the borough and just a couple of hundred metres from the burnt-out shell of the tower, Jeremy Corbyn addressed dozens of placard-waving activists. | A few days later, at the other end of the borough and just a couple of hundred metres from the burnt-out shell of the tower, Jeremy Corbyn addressed dozens of placard-waving activists. |
| “We’re going to put the government on notice,” the Labour leader announced to cheers. “And the council!” remarked one supporter. | “We’re going to put the government on notice,” the Labour leader announced to cheers. “And the council!” remarked one supporter. |
| While psephologists and political analysts have been predicting results across the country, nobody is very keen to call Kensington and Chelsea. | While psephologists and political analysts have been predicting results across the country, nobody is very keen to call Kensington and Chelsea. |
| Even one of the most senior officials at the town hall is reluctant to be drawn. “I wouldn’t put money on it either way,” he said. | Even one of the most senior officials at the town hall is reluctant to be drawn. “I wouldn’t put money on it either way,” he said. |
| On paper it looks like an almost insurmountable challenge for Labour, which holds just 11 seats to the Tories’ 37, all clustered in the poorer northern wards while the wealthier south remains true blue. Labour would have to take 15 more seats – overturning huge majorities in some – to win control. | On paper it looks like an almost insurmountable challenge for Labour, which holds just 11 seats to the Tories’ 37, all clustered in the poorer northern wards while the wealthier south remains true blue. Labour would have to take 15 more seats – overturning huge majorities in some – to win control. |
| But many believe that the tide is turning. Labour’s Emma Dent Coad sent shockwaves through the local Tory establishment when she won Kensington at the 2017 general election, primarily on the back of Brexit in one of the most remain-supporting constituencies in the country. | But many believe that the tide is turning. Labour’s Emma Dent Coad sent shockwaves through the local Tory establishment when she won Kensington at the 2017 general election, primarily on the back of Brexit in one of the most remain-supporting constituencies in the country. |
| Then came the horrors of the Grenfell fire, which killed 71 people, and the woefully inadequate response from the town hall which saw even national Tory politicians heaping on the criticism. | Then came the horrors of the Grenfell fire, which killed 71 people, and the woefully inadequate response from the town hall which saw even national Tory politicians heaping on the criticism. |
| Jackie Michael, 57, who has lived in the north of the borough for more than a decade, said: “It is inconceivable that the Tories hang on to the council after the disastrous way they responded to the fire. All you need to do is look up, and you see the tower. It’s a constant symbol of their ineptitude.” | Jackie Michael, 57, who has lived in the north of the borough for more than a decade, said: “It is inconceivable that the Tories hang on to the council after the disastrous way they responded to the fire. All you need to do is look up, and you see the tower. It’s a constant symbol of their ineptitude.” |
| But Robert Atkinson, Labour group leader on the council, is cautious. “In the last 12 months we’ve made astonishing progress in all areas of K&C and while we may not take the council this time, we’re certainly going to come close to it,” he told the Guardian. “But there will be future elections and we will then be starting from a much stronger position.” | But Robert Atkinson, Labour group leader on the council, is cautious. “In the last 12 months we’ve made astonishing progress in all areas of K&C and while we may not take the council this time, we’re certainly going to come close to it,” he told the Guardian. “But there will be future elections and we will then be starting from a much stronger position.” |
| Labour faces new challenge from old foes in Tower Hamlets vote | |
| Party insiders believe the most likely outcome is that it piles on votes in wards it already holds, while picking up a few extra seats in those which are currently split between the two main parties, although not enough to take control. “But we’re fighting seriously in wards where we haven’t fought for years,” said one Labour candidate. | Party insiders believe the most likely outcome is that it piles on votes in wards it already holds, while picking up a few extra seats in those which are currently split between the two main parties, although not enough to take control. “But we’re fighting seriously in wards where we haven’t fought for years,” said one Labour candidate. |
| They also play down the relevance of Dent Coad’s victory. “It’s not quite as revolutionary as people think,” said one, suggesting the outspoken MP fears she may not win a second time so is keeping her options open by standing again for the council. | They also play down the relevance of Dent Coad’s victory. “It’s not quite as revolutionary as people think,” said one, suggesting the outspoken MP fears she may not win a second time so is keeping her options open by standing again for the council. |
| Momentum has been out in force and, although Corbyn was campaigning in Ladbroke Grove, so far he has stayed away from the south of the borough. “I don’t think it would help if he was seen down the Kings Road,” said one party insider. | Momentum has been out in force and, although Corbyn was campaigning in Ladbroke Grove, so far he has stayed away from the south of the borough. “I don’t think it would help if he was seen down the Kings Road,” said one party insider. |
| Back in Chelsea, however, Labour is knocking on some doors it never has before. Activists report that some lifelong Tory voters think the council’s handling of Grenfell has been a disgrace, but concede that the most they can hope for is that they stay at home on Thursday. | Back in Chelsea, however, Labour is knocking on some doors it never has before. Activists report that some lifelong Tory voters think the council’s handling of Grenfell has been a disgrace, but concede that the most they can hope for is that they stay at home on Thursday. |
| The local Conservative party was condemned for its insensitivity in November for sending out a questionnaire in one of the richest parts of the borough asking people to rate the importance of Grenfell as an issue alongside rubbish collections and parking. | The local Conservative party was condemned for its insensitivity in November for sending out a questionnaire in one of the richest parts of the borough asking people to rate the importance of Grenfell as an issue alongside rubbish collections and parking. |
| But some voters think that enough is enough. “The council has spent a fortune on big new homes for Grenfell victims. Why are they still complaining? It’s about time the self-flagellation stopped,” said one. | But some voters think that enough is enough. “The council has spent a fortune on big new homes for Grenfell victims. Why are they still complaining? It’s about time the self-flagellation stopped,” said one. |
| The rentquake will punish the Tories at the ballot box | Suzanne Moore | |
| Labour is attempting to stir up anti-Brexit sentiment among the thousands of European citizens who live in the borough – many of them in Chelsea - and who make up almost a fifth of the electorate. | Labour is attempting to stir up anti-Brexit sentiment among the thousands of European citizens who live in the borough – many of them in Chelsea - and who make up almost a fifth of the electorate. |
| “Don’t overlook the fury of the Europeans,” said one candidate. “Usually these people don’t think local government matters. So we hope some can be prodded into casting a protest vote.” | “Don’t overlook the fury of the Europeans,” said one candidate. “Usually these people don’t think local government matters. So we hope some can be prodded into casting a protest vote.” |
| The biggest issues that come up on the doorstep in this part of the borough, however, are planning and parking. John Miller, 72, a retired accountant, said: “While we all recognise how terrible Grenfell was, I think any council would have struggled to deal with it. I am more likely to judge them on how they look after our public realm and our streets.” | The biggest issues that come up on the doorstep in this part of the borough, however, are planning and parking. John Miller, 72, a retired accountant, said: “While we all recognise how terrible Grenfell was, I think any council would have struggled to deal with it. I am more likely to judge them on how they look after our public realm and our streets.” |
| Whatever the result, the incoming council is going to look very different to the old one, with 17 Tory councillors not standing for re-election. Some have retired, others have stepped down over the fire and its aftermath. | Whatever the result, the incoming council is going to look very different to the old one, with 17 Tory councillors not standing for re-election. Some have retired, others have stepped down over the fire and its aftermath. |
| The Tory leader, Elizabeth Campbell, who took over after the fire, has been campaigning “all over the borough”, perhaps mindful of the damage done when she admitted she had never been inside a tower block before Grenfell. | The Tory leader, Elizabeth Campbell, who took over after the fire, has been campaigning “all over the borough”, perhaps mindful of the damage done when she admitted she had never been inside a tower block before Grenfell. |
| She is reluctant to comment on whether the tragedy – or the fact that some victims are still waiting for new permanent homes – will affect her electoral chances. “I can’t predict things. I can only just work as hard as I can, so we will see. Ask me afterwards,” she said in one interview. | She is reluctant to comment on whether the tragedy – or the fact that some victims are still waiting for new permanent homes – will affect her electoral chances. “I can’t predict things. I can only just work as hard as I can, so we will see. Ask me afterwards,” she said in one interview. |
| Daniel Moylan, a former deputy leader of the council who is standing down as councillor this time, is also hedging his bets. “It will be tough for the Conservatives. We could lose some seats but it will be difficult for Labour to take control of the council,” he said. “It would be a political tsunami if we lost. Though, of course, tsunamis do happen.” | Daniel Moylan, a former deputy leader of the council who is standing down as councillor this time, is also hedging his bets. “It will be tough for the Conservatives. We could lose some seats but it will be difficult for Labour to take control of the council,” he said. “It would be a political tsunami if we lost. Though, of course, tsunamis do happen.” |
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