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| Key conclusions from a hazy night in English local elections | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Labour made limited progress, but failed to produce the kind of surge that would allow the party to claim it is a government-in-waiting. The party gained control of Plymouth, winning four seats in the town where the member of parliament is a Conservative, Johnny Mercer, showing Labour can do well outside the capital. Denying the Tories overall control in Trafford (by gaining four council seats) was exactly as party sources were predicting. But Labour lost control of Derby, where the Jeremy Corbyn-supporting Chris Williamson is an MP, and lost Nuneaton and Bedworth for only the second time in 44 years after the Tories gained eight seats. The pollster Michael Thrasher forecast that if there were a general election based on these results, Labour would end up with a similar number of seats to the 262 the party won in 2017. | Labour made limited progress, but failed to produce the kind of surge that would allow the party to claim it is a government-in-waiting. The party gained control of Plymouth, winning four seats in the town where the member of parliament is a Conservative, Johnny Mercer, showing Labour can do well outside the capital. Denying the Tories overall control in Trafford (by gaining four council seats) was exactly as party sources were predicting. But Labour lost control of Derby, where the Jeremy Corbyn-supporting Chris Williamson is an MP, and lost Nuneaton and Bedworth for only the second time in 44 years after the Tories gained eight seats. The pollster Michael Thrasher forecast that if there were a general election based on these results, Labour would end up with a similar number of seats to the 262 the party won in 2017. |
| The antisemitism row hurt Labour. In London, Labour failed to win in Barnet – which would have required a 1.6% swing – because of voter concerns about antisemitism on the fringes of the party. In one seat, West Hendon, the party lost three seats to the Conservatives, who gained 10 percentage points. Labour also failed to win Wandsworth and Westminster. They would have taken significant swings of 7.5% and 8.8% respectively but expectations were high. In Wandsworth, for so long a flagship Tory borough, Labour can be pleased to have gained seven seats but the party needed at least three more. | The antisemitism row hurt Labour. In London, Labour failed to win in Barnet – which would have required a 1.6% swing – because of voter concerns about antisemitism on the fringes of the party. In one seat, West Hendon, the party lost three seats to the Conservatives, who gained 10 percentage points. Labour also failed to win Wandsworth and Westminster. They would have taken significant swings of 7.5% and 8.8% respectively but expectations were high. In Wandsworth, for so long a flagship Tory borough, Labour can be pleased to have gained seven seats but the party needed at least three more. |
| Theresa May can be modestly relieved, although the results do not point to her party winning an overall Westminster majority. Thrasher concluded for Sky News that May’s Tories would end up with 305 seats if the local election results were translated into a Westminster vote, down 12 and well below the 326 required for an overall majority. The party won five seats to gain control of Basildon, helped by the collapse of Ukip, which lost all five seats it was contesting. In Peterborough, a single seat gain gave the party overall control. Despite the loss of seats in Wandsworth and Westminster, the party comfortably held on to Hillingdon, where the local MP and shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, had campaigned. The party did not appear to lose any seats due to the Windrush crisis, but Brexit weighed heavily, with the Liberal Democrats gaining Richmond, in south-west London, where 69% had voted to remain in the EU. | Theresa May can be modestly relieved, although the results do not point to her party winning an overall Westminster majority. Thrasher concluded for Sky News that May’s Tories would end up with 305 seats if the local election results were translated into a Westminster vote, down 12 and well below the 326 required for an overall majority. The party won five seats to gain control of Basildon, helped by the collapse of Ukip, which lost all five seats it was contesting. In Peterborough, a single seat gain gave the party overall control. Despite the loss of seats in Wandsworth and Westminster, the party comfortably held on to Hillingdon, where the local MP and shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, had campaigned. The party did not appear to lose any seats due to the Windrush crisis, but Brexit weighed heavily, with the Liberal Democrats gaining Richmond, in south-west London, where 69% had voted to remain in the EU. |
| The Lib Dems enjoyed the smallest of revivals but the party remains far off the vote share it had before entering the coalition government. The party swept home in Richmond, gaining 22 seats to take overall control, helped by a pact with the Greens which saw that party gain four. The Tories lost 32 in a borough where Zac Goldsmith was re-elected as a Conservative MP in 2017. The Lib Dems held on to neighbouring Sutton council despite a Conservative charge, and Eastleigh on the south coast, but elsewhere Vince Cable’s party showed no signs of enjoying the sort of recovery that would see it turn into a strong force at Westminster. Nonetheless, the Thrasher projection did suggest it would add 14 seats in the Commons, taking it to 26. | The Lib Dems enjoyed the smallest of revivals but the party remains far off the vote share it had before entering the coalition government. The party swept home in Richmond, gaining 22 seats to take overall control, helped by a pact with the Greens which saw that party gain four. The Tories lost 32 in a borough where Zac Goldsmith was re-elected as a Conservative MP in 2017. The Lib Dems held on to neighbouring Sutton council despite a Conservative charge, and Eastleigh on the south coast, but elsewhere Vince Cable’s party showed no signs of enjoying the sort of recovery that would see it turn into a strong force at Westminster. Nonetheless, the Thrasher projection did suggest it would add 14 seats in the Commons, taking it to 26. |
| Ukip is collapsing into irrelevance, and the Tories appeared to scoop up more of their votes than other parties. Four years ago Ukip gained 17% of the vote in the local elections, but by 8am on Friday it had won only two seats. Its loss of seats in Basildon benefited the Tories. Jonathan Carr-West, the chief executive of the Local Government Information Unit, said: “We seem to be seeing an entrenchment of the status quo; a divided Britain in which big cities vote Labour and everywhere else votes Conservative.” | Ukip is collapsing into irrelevance, and the Tories appeared to scoop up more of their votes than other parties. Four years ago Ukip gained 17% of the vote in the local elections, but by 8am on Friday it had won only two seats. Its loss of seats in Basildon benefited the Tories. Jonathan Carr-West, the chief executive of the Local Government Information Unit, said: “We seem to be seeing an entrenchment of the status quo; a divided Britain in which big cities vote Labour and everywhere else votes Conservative.” |
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