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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/08/the-guardian-view-on-boris-johnson-and-brexit-crazy-is-as-crazy-does
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| The Guardian view on Boris Johnson and Brexit: crazy is as crazy does | The Guardian view on Boris Johnson and Brexit: crazy is as crazy does |
| (2 months later) | |
| It is sometimes said that the first rule of politics is to learn to count the numbers. In a hung parliament, this is a particularly important lesson to grasp. When there is no automatic government majority, as at present, MPs in the House of Commons hold far more power. Last week, MPs used that muscle to defeat the government on a big issue: the transparency of tax havens, snubbing serious efforts by Theresa May behind the scenes to change the outcome. On Wednesday MPs may do the same thing again, this time on amendments to the data protection bill. These would restore the Leveson inquiry’s sanctions against news organisations that do not sign up to an approved independent regulator and would revive the “Leveson part 2” inquiry. The government whips are understandably very worried. | It is sometimes said that the first rule of politics is to learn to count the numbers. In a hung parliament, this is a particularly important lesson to grasp. When there is no automatic government majority, as at present, MPs in the House of Commons hold far more power. Last week, MPs used that muscle to defeat the government on a big issue: the transparency of tax havens, snubbing serious efforts by Theresa May behind the scenes to change the outcome. On Wednesday MPs may do the same thing again, this time on amendments to the data protection bill. These would restore the Leveson inquiry’s sanctions against news organisations that do not sign up to an approved independent regulator and would revive the “Leveson part 2” inquiry. The government whips are understandably very worried. |
| But the power of the House of Commons in such cases is as nothing to the power that MPs can potentially exert over the Brexit terms in the weeks and months ahead. This is a rule of politics that Mrs May, at least, seems to understand – it is why she went for an early election last year – but her Brexiter ministers and backbenchers do not. It has come to a head over the issue of customs arrangements between Britain and the EU after Brexit. Mrs May wants to leave the customs union but to create a customs partnership with the EU with technological enforcement. She is trying to craft a compromise that might win the support of a Commons majority without destroying her government. The Brexiter ministers and backbenchers appear not to care about that. | But the power of the House of Commons in such cases is as nothing to the power that MPs can potentially exert over the Brexit terms in the weeks and months ahead. This is a rule of politics that Mrs May, at least, seems to understand – it is why she went for an early election last year – but her Brexiter ministers and backbenchers do not. It has come to a head over the issue of customs arrangements between Britain and the EU after Brexit. Mrs May wants to leave the customs union but to create a customs partnership with the EU with technological enforcement. She is trying to craft a compromise that might win the support of a Commons majority without destroying her government. The Brexiter ministers and backbenchers appear not to care about that. |
| Last week, the balance of power in the cabinet Brexit committee shifted against Mrs May after Amber Rudd’s resignation. Yet ministers remain divided. The issue is unresolved within the government, even before any formal negotiations begin with the EU. Yesterday, in an interview given to the Daily Mail while in America at the weekend, Boris Johnson mocked Mrs May’s attempts to craft a customs partnership as “crazy”. Traditionally that would be a double sacking offence, first for breaching collective responsibility, and second for attacking the prime minister while abroad. Instead the Brexiters attacked the business secretary Greg Clark for daring to restate the government’s existing position. Mrs May is too weak to enforce the usual rules. She should not allow Mr Johnson to humiliate her. But she may yet have her revenge. | Last week, the balance of power in the cabinet Brexit committee shifted against Mrs May after Amber Rudd’s resignation. Yet ministers remain divided. The issue is unresolved within the government, even before any formal negotiations begin with the EU. Yesterday, in an interview given to the Daily Mail while in America at the weekend, Boris Johnson mocked Mrs May’s attempts to craft a customs partnership as “crazy”. Traditionally that would be a double sacking offence, first for breaching collective responsibility, and second for attacking the prime minister while abroad. Instead the Brexiters attacked the business secretary Greg Clark for daring to restate the government’s existing position. Mrs May is too weak to enforce the usual rules. She should not allow Mr Johnson to humiliate her. But she may yet have her revenge. |
| That is because she may yet win what is, in effect, her negotiation with her own party. She can do the arithmetic that the hard Brexiters, egged on by the Mail and other rightwing papers, ignore. She knows that most Labour MPs and most of the other opposition parties will vote against the kind of customs proposal that Mr Johnson and his allies want to put forward. She knows that the harder the Brexit the foreign secretary and his allies try to secure, the more that it will push pro-European Tory moderates to vote with the opposition. If that happens Mrs May knows she will lose votes on the Brexit terms but will win any confidence vote that might follow. Such a scenario looms ever closer. The House of Lords has made a dozen big amendments to the EU withdrawal bill, including on the customs union. More government defeats came on Tuesday as the Lords voted to continue post-Brexit links with EU agencies and, led by no less a figure than the Duke of Wellington, voted to remove the March 2019 deadline date from the bill in case a delay proves necessary. | That is because she may yet win what is, in effect, her negotiation with her own party. She can do the arithmetic that the hard Brexiters, egged on by the Mail and other rightwing papers, ignore. She knows that most Labour MPs and most of the other opposition parties will vote against the kind of customs proposal that Mr Johnson and his allies want to put forward. She knows that the harder the Brexit the foreign secretary and his allies try to secure, the more that it will push pro-European Tory moderates to vote with the opposition. If that happens Mrs May knows she will lose votes on the Brexit terms but will win any confidence vote that might follow. Such a scenario looms ever closer. The House of Lords has made a dozen big amendments to the EU withdrawal bill, including on the customs union. More government defeats came on Tuesday as the Lords voted to continue post-Brexit links with EU agencies and, led by no less a figure than the Duke of Wellington, voted to remove the March 2019 deadline date from the bill in case a delay proves necessary. |
| Mrs May may try to delay Commons votes on these and other bills in order to avoid her Waterloo and put pressure on wavering pro-Europeans. Yet those who can count know there is a soft Brexit majority in the Commons and that it is increasingly likely to deliver Brexit terms that will upset the Brexiters. That may even happen in the so-called “meaningful vote” of the final terms. If the Tory Brexiters were serious, they would therefore support Mrs May on the customs issue. Not to do so makes it more likely that the Commons will vote for an even softer Brexit. But the Brexiters are not united. They have differing goals. They are damaging the Tory party more than they are damaging the case for a soft Brexit. This is good news for those of us who, if there must be a Brexit at all, support the softest possible version. | Mrs May may try to delay Commons votes on these and other bills in order to avoid her Waterloo and put pressure on wavering pro-Europeans. Yet those who can count know there is a soft Brexit majority in the Commons and that it is increasingly likely to deliver Brexit terms that will upset the Brexiters. That may even happen in the so-called “meaningful vote” of the final terms. If the Tory Brexiters were serious, they would therefore support Mrs May on the customs issue. Not to do so makes it more likely that the Commons will vote for an even softer Brexit. But the Brexiters are not united. They have differing goals. They are damaging the Tory party more than they are damaging the case for a soft Brexit. This is good news for those of us who, if there must be a Brexit at all, support the softest possible version. |
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