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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
|---|---|
| Tories take four-point lead over Labour in latest survey | Tories take four-point lead over Labour in latest survey |
| (about 2 months later) | |
| The Tories have opened up a four-point lead over Labour – the biggest since last year’s general election – as Remain voters appear to be losing faith in the ability of Jeremy Corbyn’s party to handle Brexit. | The Tories have opened up a four-point lead over Labour – the biggest since last year’s general election – as Remain voters appear to be losing faith in the ability of Jeremy Corbyn’s party to handle Brexit. |
| The latest monthly Opinium/Observer poll puts the Conservatives on 43% (up three points) while Labour is down one on 39%. The Liberal Democrats are on 6% (down one), two ahead of Ukip (also down one). | The latest monthly Opinium/Observer poll puts the Conservatives on 43% (up three points) while Labour is down one on 39%. The Liberal Democrats are on 6% (down one), two ahead of Ukip (also down one). |
| Despite the improvement in the Conservatives’ overall support, the leadership ratings of the two party leaders remain little changed. | Despite the improvement in the Conservatives’ overall support, the leadership ratings of the two party leaders remain little changed. |
| The rating for Theresa May remains the same as a month ago (-8%, the result of subtracting the number of people who think she is doing badly from those who think she is performing well). Corbyn has improved slightly from -19% last month to -18% this month. | The rating for Theresa May remains the same as a month ago (-8%, the result of subtracting the number of people who think she is doing badly from those who think she is performing well). Corbyn has improved slightly from -19% last month to -18% this month. |
| The Lib Dem leader, Sir Vince Cable, has enjoyed a marked surge since the local elections earlier this month, improving his rating from -18% in April to -8% now. | The Lib Dem leader, Sir Vince Cable, has enjoyed a marked surge since the local elections earlier this month, improving his rating from -18% in April to -8% now. |
| When voters are asked who would make the best prime minister, May’s lead has risen from 12 to 13 points over the past month, with 36% saying they would prefer her in Number 10, against 23% for Corbyn. | When voters are asked who would make the best prime minister, May’s lead has risen from 12 to 13 points over the past month, with 36% saying they would prefer her in Number 10, against 23% for Corbyn. |
| Corbyn wise to keep his powder dry over Brexit negotiations | Letters | Corbyn wise to keep his powder dry over Brexit negotiations | Letters |
| On Brexit, both leaders are struggling to impress, but May again comes out ahead. Some 32% approve of the way the prime minister is handling Brexit against 44% who disapprove. Just 19% approve of Corbyn’s performance on Brexit compared with 48% who disapprove. | On Brexit, both leaders are struggling to impress, but May again comes out ahead. Some 32% approve of the way the prime minister is handling Brexit against 44% who disapprove. Just 19% approve of Corbyn’s performance on Brexit compared with 48% who disapprove. |
| Strikingly, May appears to be impressing far more leave voters than Corbyn is enthusing remainers – 40% of leavers back May over Brexit, while only 26% of remainers think Corbyn is doing well on the issue. | Strikingly, May appears to be impressing far more leave voters than Corbyn is enthusing remainers – 40% of leavers back May over Brexit, while only 26% of remainers think Corbyn is doing well on the issue. |
| The polling suggests opinion is shifting in favour of the UK staying in the single market, a position strongly opposed by most Tories. | The polling suggests opinion is shifting in favour of the UK staying in the single market, a position strongly opposed by most Tories. |
| Corbyn has also refused to back staying in the single market, saying its membership could threaten many of the economic policies Labour wishes to implement if and when it comes to power. In January 2017, only 32% of voters said staying in the single market should be prioritised over ending freedom of movement. Now 40% take that view. | Corbyn has also refused to back staying in the single market, saying its membership could threaten many of the economic policies Labour wishes to implement if and when it comes to power. In January 2017, only 32% of voters said staying in the single market should be prioritised over ending freedom of movement. Now 40% take that view. |
| Support for a second referendum has remained unchanged since a year ago with 37% backing the idea and 49% opposing it. | Support for a second referendum has remained unchanged since a year ago with 37% backing the idea and 49% opposing it. |
| Politics | Politics |
| Observer Opinium politics polls | Observer Opinium politics polls |
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