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Brexit weekly briefing: Irish border problem dominates debate Brexit weekly briefing: Irish border problem dominates debate
(about 1 month later)
Welcome to the Guardian’s weekly Brexit briefing. If you would like to receive it as a weekly email, please sign up here. You can also catch up with our Brexit Means … podcast right here.Welcome to the Guardian’s weekly Brexit briefing. If you would like to receive it as a weekly email, please sign up here. You can also catch up with our Brexit Means … podcast right here.
Also, producing the Guardian’s independent, in-depth journalism takes time and money. We do it because we believe our perspective matters and it may be your perspective, too. If you value our Brexit coverage, please become a Guardian supporter. Thank you.Also, producing the Guardian’s independent, in-depth journalism takes time and money. We do it because we believe our perspective matters and it may be your perspective, too. If you value our Brexit coverage, please become a Guardian supporter. Thank you.
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The seemingly insoluble problem of the Irish border once more dominated the week. First, Theresa May denied talk of a climbdown, amid reports that cabinet Brexiters had “reluctantly accepted” the UK would have to stay in the customs union after 2020 while the technology is developed to make a soft border possible.The seemingly insoluble problem of the Irish border once more dominated the week. First, Theresa May denied talk of a climbdown, amid reports that cabinet Brexiters had “reluctantly accepted” the UK would have to stay in the customs union after 2020 while the technology is developed to make a soft border possible.
Then, at an EU summit in Sofia, the Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, raised the prospect of the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal unless UK government infighting over the issue can be stopped, saying the EU and Dublin had “yet to see anything that remotely approaches” a way out of the impasse.Then, at an EU summit in Sofia, the Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, raised the prospect of the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal unless UK government infighting over the issue can be stopped, saying the EU and Dublin had “yet to see anything that remotely approaches” a way out of the impasse.
After a 45-minute bilateral, Varadkar said there had been some “new thinking” from May: if an agreement is not reached to avoid border checks, the UK apparently now hopes to continue applying EU tariffs until it is. But amid general EU scepticism about Britain’s proposed new border backstop arrangement, he suggested checks would still be needed if the UK left the single market.After a 45-minute bilateral, Varadkar said there had been some “new thinking” from May: if an agreement is not reached to avoid border checks, the UK apparently now hopes to continue applying EU tariffs until it is. But amid general EU scepticism about Britain’s proposed new border backstop arrangement, he suggested checks would still be needed if the UK left the single market.
Meanwhile, a survey on attitudes to Brexit in Northern Ireland, which voted 56% to remain and 44% to leave in 2016, found it would now vote 69%-31% in favour of staying, with substantial support for keeping the customs union and single market.Meanwhile, a survey on attitudes to Brexit in Northern Ireland, which voted 56% to remain and 44% to leave in 2016, found it would now vote 69%-31% in favour of staying, with substantial support for keeping the customs union and single market.
The study showed “intense opposition” to north-south and east-west checks, plus “significant” support for illegal or extreme protests against any border controls, particularly among Catholics who dominate the border communities.The study showed “intense opposition” to north-south and east-west checks, plus “significant” support for illegal or extreme protests against any border controls, particularly among Catholics who dominate the border communities.
Finally, figures from Companies House showed French, Belgian and Dutch companies registered between 38% and 52% fewer businesses in the UK in 2016-17 than the previous financial year, mirroring a 90% collapse in foreign direct investment into the UK last year after a bumper year in 2016.Finally, figures from Companies House showed French, Belgian and Dutch companies registered between 38% and 52% fewer businesses in the UK in 2016-17 than the previous financial year, mirroring a 90% collapse in foreign direct investment into the UK last year after a bumper year in 2016.
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In the Guardian, Nesrine Malik argues that Jeremy Corbyn has to do the detail on Brexit. The Labour leader’s position on leaving the EU remains ambiguous, she says, perhaps because he doesn’t care very much:In the Guardian, Nesrine Malik argues that Jeremy Corbyn has to do the detail on Brexit. The Labour leader’s position on leaving the EU remains ambiguous, she says, perhaps because he doesn’t care very much:
Brexit is quite far down his list of priorities. His view of challenging the government does not involve spending lots of time bogged down in technical detail about the Irish border. And that’s fine. Indifferent Corbyn is not necessarily a bad thing – the reason he became popular in the first place is because he had not been swallowed up by the dulling obligations of technocracy, nor did he have the detached tone of other Labour figures who lost the pulse of the party’s voters. Corbyn’s strength remains in his ability to focus on issues such as job security. But his changeability and inconsistent engagement on Brexit also plays into what could be seen as his greatest weakness: that he is only a flagship values politician, valuable on the backbenches but not interested in the mundane daily grind of government. Corbyn is NHS, austerity, nationalisation, social housing. He is Stop The War and nuclear disarmament … I sympathise with indifferent Corbyn. Brexit came out of the blue, within a year of his election as party leader. It hijacked a space that could have been utilised for returning Labour to its socialist roots and mounting a credible challenge against the Tories, which was all he ever wanted. But now it’s here, he has a chance to burnish his leadership credentials, be forensic, adopt a firm stance (be it hard or soft Brexit) and prove he can do detail as well as drama.Brexit is quite far down his list of priorities. His view of challenging the government does not involve spending lots of time bogged down in technical detail about the Irish border. And that’s fine. Indifferent Corbyn is not necessarily a bad thing – the reason he became popular in the first place is because he had not been swallowed up by the dulling obligations of technocracy, nor did he have the detached tone of other Labour figures who lost the pulse of the party’s voters. Corbyn’s strength remains in his ability to focus on issues such as job security. But his changeability and inconsistent engagement on Brexit also plays into what could be seen as his greatest weakness: that he is only a flagship values politician, valuable on the backbenches but not interested in the mundane daily grind of government. Corbyn is NHS, austerity, nationalisation, social housing. He is Stop The War and nuclear disarmament … I sympathise with indifferent Corbyn. Brexit came out of the blue, within a year of his election as party leader. It hijacked a space that could have been utilised for returning Labour to its socialist roots and mounting a credible challenge against the Tories, which was all he ever wanted. But now it’s here, he has a chance to burnish his leadership credentials, be forensic, adopt a firm stance (be it hard or soft Brexit) and prove he can do detail as well as drama.
In the New Statesman, Stephen Bush says there is no way Brexit will be over by March 2019:In the New Statesman, Stephen Bush says there is no way Brexit will be over by March 2019:
I went away last week and as far as I can tell, the only change in the Brexit debate is a new piece of jargon: ‘max fac’, the latest abbreviation for some half-baked scheme of the government’s that won’t work and can’t be reconciled with its own red lines. And the bad news is anyone thinking we are more than “half way there” to the end of it all is kidding themselves. The UK took the best part of a decade to fully join the EU after 1973 and will be lucky not to take a decade or more to leave it. The complexity of exiting the bloc is only part of the problem: adding to the the difficulty of negotiating Brexit is the fraught parliamentary arithmetic. And while most people aren’t basing their voting intention on their referendum vote, enough are that it is hard to see how another election will resolve that question. If anything, it may deepen the deadlock: you may end up with no viable government at all. But regardless, it shows that the idea, still commonly aired by Conservative MPs, that Brexit will be ‘over’ in March 2019 and they can get back to other things is wildly optimistic. Brexit is the UK’s national project for the foreseeable future.I went away last week and as far as I can tell, the only change in the Brexit debate is a new piece of jargon: ‘max fac’, the latest abbreviation for some half-baked scheme of the government’s that won’t work and can’t be reconciled with its own red lines. And the bad news is anyone thinking we are more than “half way there” to the end of it all is kidding themselves. The UK took the best part of a decade to fully join the EU after 1973 and will be lucky not to take a decade or more to leave it. The complexity of exiting the bloc is only part of the problem: adding to the the difficulty of negotiating Brexit is the fraught parliamentary arithmetic. And while most people aren’t basing their voting intention on their referendum vote, enough are that it is hard to see how another election will resolve that question. If anything, it may deepen the deadlock: you may end up with no viable government at all. But regardless, it shows that the idea, still commonly aired by Conservative MPs, that Brexit will be ‘over’ in March 2019 and they can get back to other things is wildly optimistic. Brexit is the UK’s national project for the foreseeable future.
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A reasonable leaver finally throws in the towel:A reasonable leaver finally throws in the towel:
Since it appears we're no longer leaving the EU for 10yrs or more I'm ceasing all discussion of Brexit on twitter unless & until we go back to leaving (who knows - we might, any time), or until we come to Brexit2 discussions in a few years' time. Bye bye FBPE-ers. It was a blast.Since it appears we're no longer leaving the EU for 10yrs or more I'm ceasing all discussion of Brexit on twitter unless & until we go back to leaving (who knows - we might, any time), or until we come to Brexit2 discussions in a few years' time. Bye bye FBPE-ers. It was a blast.
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