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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/23/venezuela-dictator-democracy-nicolas-maduro-venezuelans
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| Venezuela has fallen to a dictator. But we can help to restore democracy | Venezuela has fallen to a dictator. But we can help to restore democracy |
| (4 days later) | |
| The descent of Venezuela into a dictatorship has resembled the fable of the boy that cried wolf. Back in July 2000, when Hugo Chávez won his first re-election, many in the opposition, surprised by his sudden rise in popularity, claimed electoral fraud. Since then, it seems, the norm has been for the opposition to accuse the government of stealing elections, without presenting enough evidence to gain the support of the international community. This has made it difficult for many outside Venezuela to label the regime a dictatorship. Until now. | The descent of Venezuela into a dictatorship has resembled the fable of the boy that cried wolf. Back in July 2000, when Hugo Chávez won his first re-election, many in the opposition, surprised by his sudden rise in popularity, claimed electoral fraud. Since then, it seems, the norm has been for the opposition to accuse the government of stealing elections, without presenting enough evidence to gain the support of the international community. This has made it difficult for many outside Venezuela to label the regime a dictatorship. Until now. |
| It has never been clearer that Nicolás Maduro – who cynically described this weekend’s vote as “a triumph of democracy” – is a dictator. Dozens of countries throughout Europe and the Americas warned that the fraudulent presidential elections should not occur and are now refusing to recognise the results. | It has never been clearer that Nicolás Maduro – who cynically described this weekend’s vote as “a triumph of democracy” – is a dictator. Dozens of countries throughout Europe and the Americas warned that the fraudulent presidential elections should not occur and are now refusing to recognise the results. |
| We are not dealing with an authoritarian government that, like Chávez’s, still managed to loosely colour between the lines of democracy and the rule of law. This is a textbook dictatorship, with assassinations, torture and sexual abuse of political prisoners, violent censorship of the press, and a sociopathic strategy to use the hunger of its own citizens as a tool for political control. So, in the face of all this, what can we do to help restore democracy in Venezuela? | We are not dealing with an authoritarian government that, like Chávez’s, still managed to loosely colour between the lines of democracy and the rule of law. This is a textbook dictatorship, with assassinations, torture and sexual abuse of political prisoners, violent censorship of the press, and a sociopathic strategy to use the hunger of its own citizens as a tool for political control. So, in the face of all this, what can we do to help restore democracy in Venezuela? |
| 1. Give up on the idea of a popular uprising or a coup | 1. Give up on the idea of a popular uprising or a coup |
| In Venezuela we used to say that the “revolution” would reach its end el día que bajen los cerros (the day the slums join the protests). Over the past four years, however, people from Venezuela’s most impoverished neighbourhoods have protested over shortages of food and medicines, rising inflation and the government’s unwillingness to curb crime – and this has only led to increased repression by the security forces. | In Venezuela we used to say that the “revolution” would reach its end el día que bajen los cerros (the day the slums join the protests). Over the past four years, however, people from Venezuela’s most impoverished neighbourhoods have protested over shortages of food and medicines, rising inflation and the government’s unwillingness to curb crime – and this has only led to increased repression by the security forces. |
| Now, when many Venezuelans barely have the energy to try to feed themselves, it is very unlikely that a popular uprising will end well. As for a coup, one has to wonder why military forces involved in human rights abuses and drug trafficking would want to depose Maduro – and how that could ever lead to democracy. | Now, when many Venezuelans barely have the energy to try to feed themselves, it is very unlikely that a popular uprising will end well. As for a coup, one has to wonder why military forces involved in human rights abuses and drug trafficking would want to depose Maduro – and how that could ever lead to democracy. |
| 2. Embrace the opposition | 2. Embrace the opposition |
| The democratic world must recognise the national assembly as the only legitimate government of Venezuela, and work with it to draw up a plan towards democratic transition. The assembly was elected in December 2015, in a vote that was universally recognised as free and fair, and the opposition controls 67% of seats. Yes, these politicians have made their share of mistakes, and sometimes their internal bickering pushes away Venezuelan voters, but they are still the only legally elected officials in the country. | The democratic world must recognise the national assembly as the only legitimate government of Venezuela, and work with it to draw up a plan towards democratic transition. The assembly was elected in December 2015, in a vote that was universally recognised as free and fair, and the opposition controls 67% of seats. Yes, these politicians have made their share of mistakes, and sometimes their internal bickering pushes away Venezuelan voters, but they are still the only legally elected officials in the country. |
| 3. Avoid unilateral actions | 3. Avoid unilateral actions |
| For various reasons, the US has led the response against Maduro. This is not productive, especially while someone as divisive as Donald Trump runs the White House. Efforts need to be coordinated by a wide coalition that includes the Latin American countries most affected by the Venezuelan exodus, and European countries with strong historical ties such as Spain, Portugal and Italy. | For various reasons, the US has led the response against Maduro. This is not productive, especially while someone as divisive as Donald Trump runs the White House. Efforts need to be coordinated by a wide coalition that includes the Latin American countries most affected by the Venezuelan exodus, and European countries with strong historical ties such as Spain, Portugal and Italy. |
| 4. Strengthen the ‘smart sanctions’ regime | 4. Strengthen the ‘smart sanctions’ regime |
| The US, EU and some Latin American countries have approved targeted sanctions that prevent Venezuelan government officials from owning property or doing business in their jurisdictions. The list of sanctioned officials needs to grow, and there must be stronger enforcement. The US also introduced wider economic sanctions that prevent Venezuela from selling off debt or assets in the US. Despite what some Maduro apologists say, these sanctions are not to blame for the state of Venezuela’s economy. The economic pressure needs to continue – hopefully without ever reaching a full ban on Venezuelan oil exports, which would decimate the country. | The US, EU and some Latin American countries have approved targeted sanctions that prevent Venezuelan government officials from owning property or doing business in their jurisdictions. The list of sanctioned officials needs to grow, and there must be stronger enforcement. The US also introduced wider economic sanctions that prevent Venezuela from selling off debt or assets in the US. Despite what some Maduro apologists say, these sanctions are not to blame for the state of Venezuela’s economy. The economic pressure needs to continue – hopefully without ever reaching a full ban on Venezuelan oil exports, which would decimate the country. |
| 5. Support international justice | 5. Support international justice |
| The preliminary examination by the prosecutor of the international criminal court into alleged human rights abuses by the Venezuelan security forces may be slow, but it would have a massive impact on the regime to see some of its leaders indicted at The Hague. | The preliminary examination by the prosecutor of the international criminal court into alleged human rights abuses by the Venezuelan security forces may be slow, but it would have a massive impact on the regime to see some of its leaders indicted at The Hague. |
| 6. Engage with China, Russia and Iran | 6. Engage with China, Russia and Iran |
| There is a long list of issues upon which both Europe and the US don’t see eye to eye with these countries. But if we could negotiate with them to limit their support for Maduro, it would be a huge step towards democracy in Venezuela. | There is a long list of issues upon which both Europe and the US don’t see eye to eye with these countries. But if we could negotiate with them to limit their support for Maduro, it would be a huge step towards democracy in Venezuela. |
| 7. Use all this pressure to make free and fair elections possible | 7. Use all this pressure to make free and fair elections possible |
| Many Venezuelans are so desperate that they believe that the only solution is for Trump to send in the Marines. We’ve already seen how ineffective the “surgical strikes” against Afghanistan and Iraq were. As decades of research into regime change have shown, the only way to guarantee a democratic future for Venezuela is through a peaceful transition. The international community must pressure Maduro into accepting new elections, with a new national electoral council, guaranteed freedoms and transparency, and proper international monitoring. This is the only path towards democracy. | Many Venezuelans are so desperate that they believe that the only solution is for Trump to send in the Marines. We’ve already seen how ineffective the “surgical strikes” against Afghanistan and Iraq were. As decades of research into regime change have shown, the only way to guarantee a democratic future for Venezuela is through a peaceful transition. The international community must pressure Maduro into accepting new elections, with a new national electoral council, guaranteed freedoms and transparency, and proper international monitoring. This is the only path towards democracy. |
| • Reynaldo Trombetta is a Venezuelan journalist | • Reynaldo Trombetta is a Venezuelan journalist |
| Venezuela | Venezuela |
| Opinion | Opinion |
| Americas | Americas |
| Nicolás Maduro | Nicolás Maduro |
| Human rights | Human rights |
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