This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/may/31/market-rebound-italian-fears-ease-business-live
The article has changed 21 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 5 | Version 6 |
|---|---|
| Markets make tentative rebound as Italian fears ease - business live | Markets make tentative rebound as Italian fears ease - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Markets are still managing to hold onto their gains - just - on hopes that the Italian political crisis can be resolved before too long. Here is our latest report on the developments: | |
| The leader of the Italian far-right party the League, Matteo Salvini, cancelled political rallies to return to Rome early on Thursday, in what was seen as a sign that a weeks-long political impasse that has left the country without a fully-functioning government for months might soon be coming to an end. | |
| Salvini was heading back to the capital to meet with his coalition partner, Luigi Di Maio, the 31-year-old head of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, after the Italian president gave the pair more time to form a government. | |
| Italian press reports indicated that any agreement to form a new populist government involving the League, formerly known as the Lega Nord, and M5S would include the nomination – again – of Giuseppe Conte, a formerly obscure law professor, to serve as prime minister. | |
| But the two populists, Di Maio and Salvini, were expected to back down on their earlier insistence that the 81-year-old Eurosceptic Paolo Savona, who had called Italy’s adoption of the euro a “historic mistake”, serve as finance minister. | |
| There were also small indications that the populists would try to assure markets that they were not planning any big moves to try to hasten an Italian exit out of the euro, a fear that roiled markets this week. | |
| The full story is here: | |
| Given the controversy over the comments from male executives making excuses for why there are now women on their boards, the fact that the new member of the Bank of England’s MPC is male hardly helps matters. | Given the controversy over the comments from male executives making excuses for why there are now women on their boards, the fact that the new member of the Bank of England’s MPC is male hardly helps matters. |
| Worse - the shortlist for the appointment included four women and one man. And the man was given the job. From the Treasury release: | Worse - the shortlist for the appointment included four women and one man. And the man was given the job. From the Treasury release: |
| The release also says: | The release also says: |
| The Treasury is committed to appointing a diverse range of people to public appointments, including at the Bank of England. The Treasury continues to work to attract the broadest range of suitable applicants for posts. As part of this recruitment process, the Chief Economic Advisor at the Treasury and chair of the interview panel contacted 87 potential applicants to inform them of the vacancy, of whom 44 were women. | The Treasury is committed to appointing a diverse range of people to public appointments, including at the Bank of England. The Treasury continues to work to attract the broadest range of suitable applicants for posts. As part of this recruitment process, the Chief Economic Advisor at the Treasury and chair of the interview panel contacted 87 potential applicants to inform them of the vacancy, of whom 44 were women. |
| Bank of England put Jonathan Haskel on the MPC,* 27 applicants in total* Shortlist was Haskel and, er, four women... pic.twitter.com/4T04l6RfnF | Bank of England put Jonathan Haskel on the MPC,* 27 applicants in total* Shortlist was Haskel and, er, four women... pic.twitter.com/4T04l6RfnF |
| Could Haskel also be hawkish? David Owen, chief european financial economist at Jefferies, says: | Could Haskel also be hawkish? David Owen, chief european financial economist at Jefferies, says: |
| His expertise will also be invaluable when it comes to assessing how much spare capacity there is in the UK economy, as well as trend GDP growth, both key when looking at monetary policy. | His expertise will also be invaluable when it comes to assessing how much spare capacity there is in the UK economy, as well as trend GDP growth, both key when looking at monetary policy. |
| Jonathan Haskel’s recent book “Capitalism Without Capital: The Rise of the Intangible Economy” highlights the growing use of things that we cannot really measure accurately in the production process in the UK. Everything being equal, this would suggest that labour productivity is stronger than official estimates suggest and like Ian McCafferty (who leaves the BoE in August) will vote for a rate rise when he joins the MPC. | Jonathan Haskel’s recent book “Capitalism Without Capital: The Rise of the Intangible Economy” highlights the growing use of things that we cannot really measure accurately in the production process in the UK. Everything being equal, this would suggest that labour productivity is stronger than official estimates suggest and like Ian McCafferty (who leaves the BoE in August) will vote for a rate rise when he joins the MPC. |
| New member appointed to #BOE #MPC; replaces Ian #McCafferty from 1 Sep. Will be interesting to see if changes voting balance on MPC given McCafferty has been repeatedly at hawkish end. Jonathan #Haskel appointed to Bank of England’s MPC https://t.co/jcPV94ss6r via @financialtimes | New member appointed to #BOE #MPC; replaces Ian #McCafferty from 1 Sep. Will be interesting to see if changes voting balance on MPC given McCafferty has been repeatedly at hawkish end. Jonathan #Haskel appointed to Bank of England’s MPC https://t.co/jcPV94ss6r via @financialtimes |
| The government has appointed Jonathan Haskel, a professor of economics at Imperial College Business School, as the newest member of the Bank of England’s rate setting Monetary Policy Committee. | The government has appointed Jonathan Haskel, a professor of economics at Imperial College Business School, as the newest member of the Bank of England’s rate setting Monetary Policy Committee. |
| Haskel will serve a three year term as an external member and will start on 1 September, when Ian McCafferty’s term ends. | Haskel will serve a three year term as an external member and will start on 1 September, when Ian McCafferty’s term ends. |
| In his Imperial College profile, Haskel says: | In his Imperial College profile, Haskel says: |
| My main research interests are productivity, innovation, intangible investment and growth. I currently study (a) how much firms investment in “intangible” or “knowledge” assets, such as software, R&D and new business processes (b) how much such investment contributes to economic growth as whole and (c) what public policy implications there might be, especially for science policy. This work uses a mix of data at the levels of company, individual, industry and whole economy. | My main research interests are productivity, innovation, intangible investment and growth. I currently study (a) how much firms investment in “intangible” or “knowledge” assets, such as software, R&D and new business processes (b) how much such investment contributes to economic growth as whole and (c) what public policy implications there might be, especially for science policy. This work uses a mix of data at the levels of company, individual, industry and whole economy. |
| Economist Bert Colijn at ING Bank said the eurozone inflation figure puts the European Central Bank in an awkward position: | Economist Bert Colijn at ING Bank said the eurozone inflation figure puts the European Central Bank in an awkward position: |
| As this jump in inflation just thinly masks underlying core weakness and uncertainty about the economy is high, it is unlikely to convince the ECB to normalise policy more quickly.... | As this jump in inflation just thinly masks underlying core weakness and uncertainty about the economy is high, it is unlikely to convince the ECB to normalise policy more quickly.... |
| [The] core inflation reading is still below where we would expect it to be with the improving labour market and increased selling prices indicated in business surveys. And, as selling price expectations have been weakening in the recent soft patch of economic data, it does not seem like we are at the start of a marked increase in inflation. | [The] core inflation reading is still below where we would expect it to be with the improving labour market and increased selling prices indicated in business surveys. And, as selling price expectations have been weakening in the recent soft patch of economic data, it does not seem like we are at the start of a marked increase in inflation. |
| The understatement of recent months was also helped by a weakening euro, which dampened some of the effects from the higher oil price. Petrol prices jumped significantly in May, on the back of an oil price of around $80 per barrel for most of the month and a weakening euro. | The understatement of recent months was also helped by a weakening euro, which dampened some of the effects from the higher oil price. Petrol prices jumped significantly in May, on the back of an oil price of around $80 per barrel for most of the month and a weakening euro. |
| Be careful what you wish for, ECB. After years of pushing for inflation to return to just under 2%, it could not have come at a more difficult time. Eurozone financial market turmoil has returned because of Italian politics this week and it is very difficult to see how the Italian political situation is going to play out. Economic data has been weakening over the past months, and the ECB is eager to determine whether this is just a soft patch. Finally, the US seems on the brink of announcing tariffs on European steel and aluminium, which clouds the exports outlook and could have an additional inflationary impact if the trade conflict gets out of hand. | Be careful what you wish for, ECB. After years of pushing for inflation to return to just under 2%, it could not have come at a more difficult time. Eurozone financial market turmoil has returned because of Italian politics this week and it is very difficult to see how the Italian political situation is going to play out. Economic data has been weakening over the past months, and the ECB is eager to determine whether this is just a soft patch. Finally, the US seems on the brink of announcing tariffs on European steel and aluminium, which clouds the exports outlook and could have an additional inflationary impact if the trade conflict gets out of hand. |
| The ECB therefore now has to decide whether it will provide certainty straight away by announcing an extension to QE or take a “wait and see” approach at the June meeting. Then it could just hint at an extension while taking another six weeks to see how the political situation in Italy and the trade conflict with the US play out, and take in more economic data. | The ECB therefore now has to decide whether it will provide certainty straight away by announcing an extension to QE or take a “wait and see” approach at the June meeting. Then it could just hint at an extension while taking another six weeks to see how the political situation in Italy and the trade conflict with the US play out, and take in more economic data. |
| Eurozone inflation rose by more than expected in May, partly due to the recent surge in oil prices. | Eurozone inflation rose by more than expected in May, partly due to the recent surge in oil prices. |
| The increase towards the European Central Bank’s target comes as it wants to run down its stimulus programme, but faces the prospect of market turbulence disturbing its plans. | The increase towards the European Central Bank’s target comes as it wants to run down its stimulus programme, but faces the prospect of market turbulence disturbing its plans. |
| The cost of living in the 19 eurozone countries rose from 1.2% in April to 1.9% in May, according to an initial estimate from Eurostat, higher than the forecasts of around 1.6%. | The cost of living in the 19 eurozone countries rose from 1.2% in April to 1.9% in May, according to an initial estimate from Eurostat, higher than the forecasts of around 1.6%. |
| Energy prices rose by 6.1% compared to 2.6% in April, while food was 2.6% higher, uup from 2.4%. | Energy prices rose by 6.1% compared to 2.6% in April, while food was 2.6% higher, uup from 2.4%. |
| Excluding energy and food prices, inflation rose from 1.1% to 1.3%. | Excluding energy and food prices, inflation rose from 1.1% to 1.3%. |
| Meanwhile unemployment in the eurozone fell from 8.6% in March to 8.5% in April. | Meanwhile unemployment in the eurozone fell from 8.6% in March to 8.5% in April. |
| A UK interest rate rise in August is by no means a done deal, says ING Bank economist James Smith. Commenting on the credit figures, he says: | A UK interest rate rise in August is by no means a done deal, says ING Bank economist James Smith. Commenting on the credit figures, he says: |
| It’s not something markets or analysts typically spend much time looking at each month, but the unexpectedly sharp fall in consumer credit in March was probably a key factor in the Bank of England’s decision to keep rates on hold in May. | It’s not something markets or analysts typically spend much time looking at each month, but the unexpectedly sharp fall in consumer credit in March was probably a key factor in the Bank of England’s decision to keep rates on hold in May. |
| Admittedly the reasons for this sudden decline were fairly unclear, and the latest figures released today show that the amount of unsecured consumer credit supplied fully recovered in April, rising by £1.8 billion. This tentatively suggests that the fall was simply a blip, perhaps related to the wider economic slowdown in March (although it’s not entirely clear why the bad weather would have resulted in such a sharp change). | Admittedly the reasons for this sudden decline were fairly unclear, and the latest figures released today show that the amount of unsecured consumer credit supplied fully recovered in April, rising by £1.8 billion. This tentatively suggests that the fall was simply a blip, perhaps related to the wider economic slowdown in March (although it’s not entirely clear why the bad weather would have resulted in such a sharp change). |
| We still think this is a story worth keeping an eye on over the next couple of months. A net 39% of banks said they tightened up on credit availability in the first quarter according to a Bank of England survey. If credit growth were to slow further, it would no doubt be a bad omen for growth - particularly as, of what little spending there has been over the past year, much of it appears to have been financed by borrowing. | We still think this is a story worth keeping an eye on over the next couple of months. A net 39% of banks said they tightened up on credit availability in the first quarter according to a Bank of England survey. If credit growth were to slow further, it would no doubt be a bad omen for growth - particularly as, of what little spending there has been over the past year, much of it appears to have been financed by borrowing. |
| Meanwhile consumers continue to remain cautious. While household incomes are no longer being squeezed quite as much as before, shoppers are now being confronted with higher petrol prices, and the latest confidence surveys suggest individuals remain pessimistic about the economic situation overall. | Meanwhile consumers continue to remain cautious. While household incomes are no longer being squeezed quite as much as before, shoppers are now being confronted with higher petrol prices, and the latest confidence surveys suggest individuals remain pessimistic about the economic situation overall. |
| These cracks forming in the retail sector remain a big risk to the Bank of England outlook. While we are inclined to think policymakers have a preference to hike rates again in August if economic data allows (particularly given the better wage growth trend), this is certainly not a done deal. | These cracks forming in the retail sector remain a big risk to the Bank of England outlook. While we are inclined to think policymakers have a preference to hike rates again in August if economic data allows (particularly given the better wage growth trend), this is certainly not a done deal. |
| As one committee member said recently, the cost of waiting a bit longer before hiking rates is relatively low. | As one committee member said recently, the cost of waiting a bit longer before hiking rates is relatively low. |
| Is Sir Dave Ramsden of the Bank of England around to explain how an extra £1.8 billion of unsecured lending in April is "weak credit growth" please? | Is Sir Dave Ramsden of the Bank of England around to explain how an extra £1.8 billion of unsecured lending in April is "weak credit growth" please? |
| The independent economist is referring to remarks made earlier this month at at select committee hearing, when Sir Dave said there was a risk households were spending less than the Bank had expected - as reported by the Financial Times (£). | The independent economist is referring to remarks made earlier this month at at select committee hearing, when Sir Dave said there was a risk households were spending less than the Bank had expected - as reported by the Financial Times (£). |
| Speaking of credit, there has been a spike in borrowing by UK consumers in April after a slowdown the previous month blamed on the snowy weather. | Speaking of credit, there has been a spike in borrowing by UK consumers in April after a slowdown the previous month blamed on the snowy weather. |
| Consumer credit lending rose by a higher than expected £1.832bn, the biggest increase since November 2016, compared to an increase of just £425m in March. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a rise of £1.3bn. | Consumer credit lending rose by a higher than expected £1.832bn, the biggest increase since November 2016, compared to an increase of just £425m in March. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a rise of £1.3bn. |
| The number of mortgages approved slipped from 62,802 in March to 62,455, less than the expected 63,000. Net mortgage lending rose by £3.894bn. | The number of mortgages approved slipped from 62,802 in March to 62,455, less than the expected 63,000. Net mortgage lending rose by £3.894bn. |
| Here’s our story on the Financial Conduct Authority clamping down on high cost credit: | Here’s our story on the Financial Conduct Authority clamping down on high cost credit: |
| The City watchdog is planning a price cap for rent-to-own retailers as part of a crackdown on high-cost credit and overdrafts to save consumers more than £200m a year. | The City watchdog is planning a price cap for rent-to-own retailers as part of a crackdown on high-cost credit and overdrafts to save consumers more than £200m a year. |
| Although stopping short of capping charges on overdrafts, the Financial Conduct Authority outlined a series of measures on Thursday amid growing calls to protect vulnerable consumers. | Although stopping short of capping charges on overdrafts, the Financial Conduct Authority outlined a series of measures on Thursday amid growing calls to protect vulnerable consumers. |
| The changes, the result of an 18-month review by the regulator, come as the Bank of England becomes increasingly concerned about rapid growth in personal borrowing, which is returning to levels unseen since the financial crisis. The Hollywood actor Michael Sheen, debt charities and the Labour party have applied significant pressure on the regulator to act. | The changes, the result of an 18-month review by the regulator, come as the Bank of England becomes increasingly concerned about rapid growth in personal borrowing, which is returning to levels unseen since the financial crisis. The Hollywood actor Michael Sheen, debt charities and the Labour party have applied significant pressure on the regulator to act. |
| The FCA said it would consider introducing a price cap for the rent-to-own sector, which includes firms such as BrightHouse, from as early as April next year, although it warned it would need to consult on the measure with the industry first. | The FCA said it would consider introducing a price cap for the rent-to-own sector, which includes firms such as BrightHouse, from as early as April next year, although it warned it would need to consult on the measure with the industry first. |
| The full report is here: | The full report is here: |
| More positive news for Italy: | More positive news for Italy: |
| "We are looking to buy short-term Italian bonds now," Atsushi Tachibana, CIO of Japan's $707 billion insurance fund Kampo, tells Reuters pic.twitter.com/jEZPrAVAYF | "We are looking to buy short-term Italian bonds now," Atsushi Tachibana, CIO of Japan's $707 billion insurance fund Kampo, tells Reuters pic.twitter.com/jEZPrAVAYF |