It's time for Ireland to deliver a credible climate plan

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/08/its-time-for-ireland-to-deliver-a-credible-climate-plan

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Last week the Irish Environmental Protection Agency confirmed that Ireland will miss its 2020 international emissions target by a wide margin. The goal is 20% cuts on 2005 levels; in reality we’re on track for 1%.

It further predicted that the gap between stated ambition and reality will, if anything, widen over the coming years. Starting from 2020 this will almost certainly mean fines – potentially of millions of euros – being levied by the European commission.

Plans such as a 20% increase in milk production to satisfy export markets in China and beyond point Ireland unambiguously in the wrong direction. Peat, the most dirty fuel of all, is still commercially extracted and burned to produce some of the country’s electricity. As well as increasing our carbon footprint it degrades our national ecosystems. Microgeneration of electricity cannot be pushed back on to the grid, even for free, making Ireland a sore thumb anomaly internationally and curtailing domestic renewables uptake. Electric vehicle take-up remains abysmally low. Ireland has a lot to do just to play catch-up, let alone take a leadership role, in tackling climate change.

Ireland has also been heavily in the news recently over the referendum to repeal the eighth amendment, which prohibited abortion. The role of the Citizens’ Assembly, an exercise in deliberative democracy, in the process has, quite rightly, been lauded. It proved that given time, access to expert evidence, the absence of the proverbial megaphones of vested interests, and a conducive environment to discuss issues, citizens can, and will, come to informed and nuanced opinions.

Less well known, at least outside Ireland, is that the assembly have considered a number of additional topics. These included how the state can help make Ireland a leader in tackling climate change. As noted already, Ireland’s progress to date on this issue has been wholly inadequate.

It was my privilege to serve on the expert advisory group of the assembly for its climate deliberations. Citizens were presented over two weekends with what amounted to a crash course in, not just the evidence basis for climate change, but also what critical aspects of their life, such as energy, transport, agriculture, and our homes might look like 30 years hence, were Ireland to become a leader in tackling climate change. They were also shown inspiring present day exemplars such as the Dublin fire brigade station that has gone carbon neutral, through community owned renewable energy efforts in Tipperary, to organic low-impact farmers.

Crucially, these discussions were undertaken without the voices of vested interests, from both ends of the spectrum. These all too often tend to obfuscate, and discussions of climate change in the public sphere turn into a slanging match.

At the end of the two weekends citizens voted on a range of questions. If the citizens are as representative of broader society as implied by the eight amendment deliberations, where the assembly ballot results almost exactly matched the referendum result, then the results were awe-inspiring. They should act as a real wake-up call to both the current government and future governments. Every single question given to the citizens attained at least 80% agreement. Most attained close to unanimous agreement.

Real efforts were made to ensure that the questions given were balanced and nuanced and properly reflected trade-offs that would be required in the real-world. There were no questions, for example, about subsidies without a commensurate counterweight of a source of increased revenues to cover the costs.

But they also recognised aspects such as equity that could and should be achieved. So, for example, there was a question around raising taxes on carbon intensive activities. But the funds would then be ringfenced and used to enable the transition to lower-intensity activities, with priority given to those in fuel poverty and community owned activities.

The citizens were almost unanimous in desiring an act similar to the UK Climate Change Act with a watchdog similar to the Climate Change Committee charged with setting sector-wise targets but given real teeth – the ability to sue the government or other public bodies for non-conformance.

The citizens also voted strongly for the imposition of tax and subsidy basis for the farming sector to penalise carbon intensive activities and encourage more climate friendly behaviours in the sector. They also wanted Ireland to reimagine its approach to transport, in both urban and rural areas.

The recently unveiled 2040 strategy of the government, if enacted in full, starts to make substantive progress in addressing many, but by no means all, of the issues raised. But, unless and until strategy is translated into action and results across successive governments the jury must remain out.

There is clearly an enormous appetite to make Ireland live up to its reputation as the emerald island by being a leader in addressing climate change. Citizens recognised the competitive advantages of energy independence and first mover advantage, as well as co-benefits such as air quality improvements.

Will our politicians give the same due diligence to the Citizens’ Assembly’s climate change considerations as the eighth amendment? Time will tell.

• Peter Thorne is the director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units at Maynooth University and a coordinating lead author on the IPCC sixth assessment report