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What is the current state of the migration crisis in Europe? What is the current state of the migration crisis in Europe?
(7 days later)
Three years after Europe’s biggest influx of migrants and refugees since the second world war, tensions between EU member states over how to handle irregular immigration from outside the bloc – mainly from the Middle East and Africa – are rising again. More than three years after Europe’s biggest influx of migrants and refugees since the second world war, tensions between EU member states over how to handle irregular immigration from outside the bloc – mainly from the Middle East and Africa – remain high.
What is the scale of migration?What is the scale of migration?
Numbers are sharply down from their 2015-16 peak because of an EU deal with Turkey, new border fences in the Balkans, and a bilateral arrangement between Italy and Libya. The UNHCR says Spain has welcomed 9,500 irregular migrants so far this year, Greece 12,000 and Italy 15,300. But the underlying factors that have led to more than 1.8 million migrants coming to Europe since 2014 have not gone away; most observers believe it is only a matter of time before the number of arrivals picks up again. Numbers are sharply down from their 2015-16 peak because of a 2016 EU deal with Turkey, new border fences in the Balkans, and a 2017 bilateral arrangement between Italy and Libya, but have begun creeping up again.
The UNHCR says Spain has welcomed 56,200 irregular migrants arriving by sea so far this year, Greece 28,700 and Italy 22,500. Overland arrivals in Greece have also climbed sharply to 14,000, a three-fold increase on the same period last year.
The underlying factors that have led to more than 1.8 million migrants coming to Europe since 2014 have not gone away; most observers believe it is only a matter of time before the number of arrivals picks up significantly once more.
Why is it a problem?Why is it a problem?
Everyone agrees Europe needs to urgently overhaul its asylum and immigration rules. At present Italy and Greece take most of the strain because of their geographical position and the fact that, under EU law, asylum seekers must lodge their applications in the first EU country they enter. However, no one can agree how to do it: some countries are pushing for tougher external border controls, others for fairer distribution of new arrivals. Any solution will have to somehow balance the concerns of the “frontline” southern states with those of the wealthier northern “destination” states, but also deal with the flat refusal of hardline central and eastern European governments such as Hungary and Poland to be pushed into accepting any migrants at all. Everyone agrees Europe needs to urgently overhaul its asylum and immigration rules. At present Spain, Italy and Greece take most of the strain owing to their geographical position on the Mediterranean Sea and the fact that, under EU law, asylum seekers must lodge their applications in the first EU country they enter.
However, no one can agree on what to do: some countries want tougher external border controls, others fairer distribution of new arrivals. Any solution will have to balance the concerns of “frontline” southern states with those of wealthier northern “destination” states, while dealing with the refusal of hardline central and eastern ones (such as Hungary and Poland) to accept any migrants at all.
What is the wider political context?What is the wider political context?
With anti-immigration sentiment on the rise across the continent, the far-right League party of Matteo Salvini, which campaigned on a pledge to send 500,000 irregular migrants home, has entered government in Italy. The similarly rightwing, populist Freedom party is sharing power in Austria. In Germany – which welcomed more than 1 million migrants in 2015 under Angela Merkel’s open-door policy – the rightwing nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) made major gains. This has put the chancellor’s centre-right CDU and especially its Bavarian CSU sister party, which faces regional elections in October, under intense pressure to tighten the country’s immigration laws. With anti-immigration sentiment on the rise across the continent, the presence in Italy’s government of the far-right League party of Matteo Salvini, which campaigned on a pledge to send 500,000 irregular migrants home, is making itself felt. The similarly rightwing, populist Freedom party is sharing power in Austria.
What sparked the latest flare-up? In Germany – which welcomed more than 1 million migrants in 2015 under Angela Merkel’s open-door policy – the rightwing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party has kept immigration firmly at the top of the political agenda. After a series of electoral setbacks, the chancellor has said she will not stand again. Polling shows immigration and terrorism remain EU citizens’ top concerns.
Salvini barred a migrant rescue ship carrying 629 people from entering any Italian port. After Malta followed suit, the Aquarius is heading for Spain, welcomed by the newly formed government of the centre-left prime minister, Pedro Sanchez. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, called Italy’s move “cynical and irresponsible”, prompting a major diplomatic row between the two countries. At the same time, Germany’s hardline CSU interior minister, Horst Seehofer, has demanded the right to turn migrants away at Germany’s borders – a proposal Merkel has rejected because she wants a Europe-wide solution. Where do things stand?
Fewer people are making the journey across the Mediterranean, but the proportion of those losing their lives while trying has risen sharply: so far in 2018, more than 21,000 people have made the crossing, and more than 1,250 have died.
Amid a string of high-profile cases of migrant rescue boats left drifting at sea, NGO vessels have all but disappeared from the main migration routes to Italy following Salvini’s announcement after taking office this summer that he was closing Italian ports to non-Italian rescue vessels.
European leaders papered over their divisions at a crunch summer summit but have so far dodged any formal agreement on refugee quotas, with central states rejecting any form of mandatory action.
What will happen now?What will happen now?
Merkel’s conservative CDU-CSU bloc is teetering on the brink, threatening her coalition government. Austria, Italy and Germany are exploring proposals for an “axis of the willing” against illegal immigration. France is also talking to Italy about “joint initiatives”. The German chancellor has said solving the question is “a litmus test for Europe’s cohesion and future” that will demand a strong, collective response. Spain has warned that one of the bloc’s core principles – freedom of movement – is at risk. An EU summit in Brussels on 28 and 29 June is due to discuss new rules to ease the burden on frontline states, but agreement is far from certain. Merkel is on record as saying the future of the European Union hinges on whether it can find answers to the “vital questions” posed by migration, but although leaders agree on the need to ease the burden on Italy and Greece, details are scarce.
Efforts will be shared, but only voluntarily. Members are to take in rescued migrants and establish centres to assess asylum claims on their soil, and the bloc will explore regional processing platforms in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Niger and Tunisia.
But so far none of these countries have agreed to help, while a couple have ruled themselves out. Meanwhile Hungary’s leader, Viktor Orbán, is leading a call among some states for a “strong border” to stop an “invasion”. Nothing is yet settled.
MigrationMigration
European UnionEuropean Union
GermanyGermany
ItalyItaly
EuropeEurope
FranceFrance
Middle East and North AfricaMiddle East and North Africa
analysisanalysis
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