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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
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| Balancing act May must perform to create a clear Brexit plan | Balancing act May must perform to create a clear Brexit plan |
| (2 months later) | |
| Theresa May hopes to emerge from Chequers on Friday evening with her cabinet intact and a clear Brexit plan, but she faces an all but impossible balancing act. Here are some of the forces she must weigh: | Theresa May hopes to emerge from Chequers on Friday evening with her cabinet intact and a clear Brexit plan, but she faces an all but impossible balancing act. Here are some of the forces she must weigh: |
| Mogglodytes | Mogglodytes |
| Jacob Rees-Mogg’s punchy Telegraph article on Monday, warning the prime minister she could meet the fate of Robert Peel, was the clearest indication yet that hardline Brexiters would be willing to bring down the government, rather than accept a Norway-style deal that left Britain inside – or almost inside – the single market. | Jacob Rees-Mogg’s punchy Telegraph article on Monday, warning the prime minister she could meet the fate of Robert Peel, was the clearest indication yet that hardline Brexiters would be willing to bring down the government, rather than accept a Norway-style deal that left Britain inside – or almost inside – the single market. |
| They could do so by making clear they have a bloc of MPs large enough to vote down any version of the withdrawal agreement they dislike – whatever the consequences. | They could do so by making clear they have a bloc of MPs large enough to vote down any version of the withdrawal agreement they dislike – whatever the consequences. |
| As Prof Philip Cowley, of Queen Mary University of London, puts it: “if they really are prepared to blow the bloody doors off, it doesn’t take very many of them.” | As Prof Philip Cowley, of Queen Mary University of London, puts it: “if they really are prepared to blow the bloody doors off, it doesn’t take very many of them.” |
| Vote Leave veterans | Vote Leave veterans |
| Part of the aim of Rees-Mogg and his colleagues in the European Research Group is to stiffen the sinews of their representatives inside the room at Chequers – in particular the “three Brexiteers” Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Liam Fox. | Part of the aim of Rees-Mogg and his colleagues in the European Research Group is to stiffen the sinews of their representatives inside the room at Chequers – in particular the “three Brexiteers” Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Liam Fox. |
| May’s decision to announce a a £20bn funding boost for the NHS and publicly tie it to a “Brexit dividend” – validating the notorious £350m a week Vote Leave bus pledge – was widely read as a sop to Johnson and his colleagues, to prepare them for compromises to come. | May’s decision to announce a a £20bn funding boost for the NHS and publicly tie it to a “Brexit dividend” – validating the notorious £350m a week Vote Leave bus pledge – was widely read as a sop to Johnson and his colleagues, to prepare them for compromises to come. |
| It is unclear what the red lines of this group are and what would persuade them to pull the trigger on their strongest weapon: resignation. Certainly they would be wary of any major concessions on migration, but Downing Street has pushed back against the idea that it is preparing to cave in on freedom of movement. | It is unclear what the red lines of this group are and what would persuade them to pull the trigger on their strongest weapon: resignation. Certainly they would be wary of any major concessions on migration, but Downing Street has pushed back against the idea that it is preparing to cave in on freedom of movement. |
| Johnson, whose leadership star has waned after dodging the Heathrow vote and being overheard saying “fuck business”, is said by friends to have no intention of walking out. But if the trio united around opposition to aspects of May’s plan, and collectively cried betrayal, it could be disastrous for her. | Johnson, whose leadership star has waned after dodging the Heathrow vote and being overheard saying “fuck business”, is said by friends to have no intention of walking out. But if the trio united around opposition to aspects of May’s plan, and collectively cried betrayal, it could be disastrous for her. |
| Heart of Remain | Heart of Remain |
| Philip Hammond, whose department Boris Johnson memorably described as the “heart of remain”, has kept a low profile in the most recent bout of Brexit infighting. | Philip Hammond, whose department Boris Johnson memorably described as the “heart of remain”, has kept a low profile in the most recent bout of Brexit infighting. |
| But he and business secretary Greg Clark have played a long game over the past two years, believing that over time the realities of negotiating – and input from business groups and others – would exert intense pressure on the Leavers to compromise. | But he and business secretary Greg Clark have played a long game over the past two years, believing that over time the realities of negotiating – and input from business groups and others – would exert intense pressure on the Leavers to compromise. |
| They argue that they have won a series of battles since July 2016, including over the need for a transition period, meant to end in December 2020, to avoid a “cliff-edge” in March next year. | They argue that they have won a series of battles since July 2016, including over the need for a transition period, meant to end in December 2020, to avoid a “cliff-edge” in March next year. |
| Clark argued publicly on Sunday that this might now need to be extended. The cabinet remainers believe the longer the argument plays out, the softer the Brexit – provided Britain stays in the single market, or something close to it, in the meantime. | Clark argued publicly on Sunday that this might now need to be extended. The cabinet remainers believe the longer the argument plays out, the softer the Brexit – provided Britain stays in the single market, or something close to it, in the meantime. |
| David Davis | David Davis |
| Theresa May’s determination to keep her Brexit secretary onside was laid bare last month when he insisted on not one but two one-to-one meetings with her to negotiate the detailed wording of the backstop for Northern Ireland, while rumours swirled in Westminster that he was ready to quit. | Theresa May’s determination to keep her Brexit secretary onside was laid bare last month when he insisted on not one but two one-to-one meetings with her to negotiate the detailed wording of the backstop for Northern Ireland, while rumours swirled in Westminster that he was ready to quit. |
| Davis has had more meetings with May in recent days and has been signing off the briefing papers for Chequers, prepared by his department and the Cabinet Office team of May’s Europe advisor, Ollie Robbins; but his favoured Brexit is a Canada-style trade deal, a long way from the softer approach she appears to be moving towards. | Davis has had more meetings with May in recent days and has been signing off the briefing papers for Chequers, prepared by his department and the Cabinet Office team of May’s Europe advisor, Ollie Robbins; but his favoured Brexit is a Canada-style trade deal, a long way from the softer approach she appears to be moving towards. |
| Neither is he a fan of fudge: Davis pushed May to publish the Brexit white paper before last week’s European Council meeting, so is likely to be reluctant to accept further equivocation. | Neither is he a fan of fudge: Davis pushed May to publish the Brexit white paper before last week’s European Council meeting, so is likely to be reluctant to accept further equivocation. |
| Swing voters | Swing voters |
| Friday’s meeting includes May’s entire cabinet - not just the smaller Brexit subcommittee, which has at times been deadlocked. That means the balance of power between hard and soft Brexiteers is much harder to judge - particularly when some, including Sajid Javid and Gavin Williamson, fancy their chances in a future leadership race. | Friday’s meeting includes May’s entire cabinet - not just the smaller Brexit subcommittee, which has at times been deadlocked. That means the balance of power between hard and soft Brexiteers is much harder to judge - particularly when some, including Sajid Javid and Gavin Williamson, fancy their chances in a future leadership race. |
| Non-members of the subcommittee have been briefed by Robbins; and invited to raise any queries in meetings with May’s chief of staff, Gavin Barwell, or director of communications, Robbie Gibb; but several ministers– Esther McVey, or Damian Hinds, for example – are an unknown quantity. | Non-members of the subcommittee have been briefed by Robbins; and invited to raise any queries in meetings with May’s chief of staff, Gavin Barwell, or director of communications, Robbie Gibb; but several ministers– Esther McVey, or Damian Hinds, for example – are an unknown quantity. |
| Moderate Conservatives | Moderate Conservatives |
| Mainstream Tory MPs lined up on Monday to criticise Rees-Mogg for his bloodcurdling threat, and urge him to “put a sock in it”, as the veteran moderate Nicholas Soames put it. | Mainstream Tory MPs lined up on Monday to criticise Rees-Mogg for his bloodcurdling threat, and urge him to “put a sock in it”, as the veteran moderate Nicholas Soames put it. |
| Many want to see a “pragmatic” Brexit, which minimises economic damage as much as possible while still respecting the result of the referendum – a job which they believe has been made that much more difficult by May’s “red lines”, drafted by her former advisor Nick Timothy. | Many want to see a “pragmatic” Brexit, which minimises economic damage as much as possible while still respecting the result of the referendum – a job which they believe has been made that much more difficult by May’s “red lines”, drafted by her former advisor Nick Timothy. |
| But the parliamentary arithmetic is hard to read and after Dominic Grieve backed down in his rebellion against the government last month, the widely held theory that there is a majority in the Commons for the softest of soft Brexits has not been properly tested, and depends on how Labour plays its hand. | But the parliamentary arithmetic is hard to read and after Dominic Grieve backed down in his rebellion against the government last month, the widely held theory that there is a majority in the Commons for the softest of soft Brexits has not been properly tested, and depends on how Labour plays its hand. |
| Politics | Politics |
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| Theresa May | Theresa May |
| Boris Johnson | Boris Johnson |
| Jacob Rees-Mogg | Jacob Rees-Mogg |
| Sajid Javid | Sajid Javid |
| Gavin Williamson | Gavin Williamson |
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