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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| Q&A: can May survive and save her Brexit plan? | Q&A: can May survive and save her Brexit plan? |
| (4 months later) | |
| What happens now Theresa May has appointed Dominic Raab as Brexit secretary following the resignation of David Davis? The prime minister could face a challenge to her leadership while she prepares to publish the Brexit white paper this week, setting out the plan agreed at Chequers. | What happens now Theresa May has appointed Dominic Raab as Brexit secretary following the resignation of David Davis? The prime minister could face a challenge to her leadership while she prepares to publish the Brexit white paper this week, setting out the plan agreed at Chequers. |
| Can May survive? | Can May survive? |
| The prime minister has a crucial 24 hours to save her Brexit plan. The appointment of Raab, a vocal Brexiter, will have cooled some tempers, but there are still many MPs who think the Chequers plan must be stopped. | The prime minister has a crucial 24 hours to save her Brexit plan. The appointment of Raab, a vocal Brexiter, will have cooled some tempers, but there are still many MPs who think the Chequers plan must be stopped. |
| Three key people have urged Conservative MPs not to trigger a confidence vote – Davis, Steve Baker, his deputy who also resigned, and Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chairman of the European Research Group of Eurosceptic MPs. | Three key people have urged Conservative MPs not to trigger a confidence vote – Davis, Steve Baker, his deputy who also resigned, and Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chairman of the European Research Group of Eurosceptic MPs. |
| May’s chief of staff, Gavin Barwell, is still briefing Conservative MPs on the plan. He has also invited opposition MPs to a briefing on Monday afternoon, which has enraged some Tories, in a sign the government thinks it will need Labour votes to pass any Brexit deal. | May’s chief of staff, Gavin Barwell, is still briefing Conservative MPs on the plan. He has also invited opposition MPs to a briefing on Monday afternoon, which has enraged some Tories, in a sign the government thinks it will need Labour votes to pass any Brexit deal. |
| The prime minister will make a statement to the House of Commons on Monday afternoon and meet the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers in private on Monday evening. Her performance at both, and the reaction from Conservative MPs, will be key to what happens next. | The prime minister will make a statement to the House of Commons on Monday afternoon and meet the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers in private on Monday evening. Her performance at both, and the reaction from Conservative MPs, will be key to what happens next. |
| What would trigger a leadership contest? | What would trigger a leadership contest? |
| A confidence vote is triggered if 15% of Conservative MPs write to Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee, saying they no longer have confidence in the party leader. | A confidence vote is triggered if 15% of Conservative MPs write to Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee, saying they no longer have confidence in the party leader. |
| The leader is then subject to a full confidence vote and must resign if they lose. The Tories have 316 MPs, meaning Brady must receive 48 letters to trigger a leadership contest. | The leader is then subject to a full confidence vote and must resign if they lose. The Tories have 316 MPs, meaning Brady must receive 48 letters to trigger a leadership contest. |
| How many letters has he received? | How many letters has he received? |
| Reports vary wildly from about 25 to more than 40, depending on which MP you talk to, and the reality is no one knows apart from Brady. | Reports vary wildly from about 25 to more than 40, depending on which MP you talk to, and the reality is no one knows apart from Brady. |
| Many of the letters were sent by Conservative MPs furious at the 2017 general election result, so not all are objections to May’s Brexit stance; some just believe she is not up to the job. | Many of the letters were sent by Conservative MPs furious at the 2017 general election result, so not all are objections to May’s Brexit stance; some just believe she is not up to the job. |
| Should more letters be sent in outrage at May’s Brexit position, it is possible some other MPs could withdraw theirs if they believe it would not be in the national interest to challenge the prime minister so close to the Brexit deadline. | Should more letters be sent in outrage at May’s Brexit position, it is possible some other MPs could withdraw theirs if they believe it would not be in the national interest to challenge the prime minister so close to the Brexit deadline. |
| Would May lose a confidence vote? | Would May lose a confidence vote? |
| Even if a confidence vote is triggered, May’s allies are reasonably confident she could win. She would need more than 150 MPs to vote against her, which far exceeds the “ultras” on either wing of the party. | Even if a confidence vote is triggered, May’s allies are reasonably confident she could win. She would need more than 150 MPs to vote against her, which far exceeds the “ultras” on either wing of the party. |
| Many pragmatic, mainstream Conservative MPs, whatever their position on Brexit, may view a change of leadership at this stage as disastrous. But much depends on how Downing Street handles dissent following Davis’s resignation. May could emerge with her confidence and authority shot, even if she escapes defeat, and her chances of fighting the next election would be practically zero. | Many pragmatic, mainstream Conservative MPs, whatever their position on Brexit, may view a change of leadership at this stage as disastrous. But much depends on how Downing Street handles dissent following Davis’s resignation. May could emerge with her confidence and authority shot, even if she escapes defeat, and her chances of fighting the next election would be practically zero. |
| What does this mean for the white paper? | What does this mean for the white paper? |
| It was the delay to the Brexit white paper, which Davis had hoped would be completed before the June EU summit, that enraged him in the weeks before the Chequers summit. May is likely to want to press ahead with publishing the white paper this week, but that will depend on whether there are further resignations. | It was the delay to the Brexit white paper, which Davis had hoped would be completed before the June EU summit, that enraged him in the weeks before the Chequers summit. May is likely to want to press ahead with publishing the white paper this week, but that will depend on whether there are further resignations. |
| David Davis | David Davis |
| Theresa May | Theresa May |
| Brexit | Brexit |
| Article 50 | Article 50 |
| European Union | European Union |
| Europe | Europe |
| Foreign policy | |
| q&as | q&as |
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