This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/jul/10/uk-monthly-gdp-data-economy-recovery-ftse-sterling-brexit-business-live

The article has changed 11 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 7 Version 8
UK economic growth rises to 0.3% in May thanks to service sector – business live UK economic growth rises to 0.3% in May thanks to service sector – business live
(35 minutes later)
The pound is fairly steady at the moment, as the UK political chaos of the past few days eases and investors consider the prospect of a soft(er) Brexit. Oliver Jones at Capital Economics says:
After rising and then falling by more than 1% against the dollar since Friday, sterling has been more stable today, after a lull in the storm in the UK Conservative Party.
In the wake of the high-profile resignations of the past couple of days, the prospect of an immediate challenge to Theresa May’s leadership appears to have subsided. For the time being at least, it appears that not enough Conservative MPs are willing to back a vote of no confidence in her that could trigger a leadership contest. And Michael Gove has pledged not to resign from the Cabinet, contrary to speculation that he would follow David Davis’ and Boris Johnson’s lead.
Admittedly, not everyone appears convinced. According to betting markets, the probability of a general election in the UK this year remains at nearly 30% today, compared to closer to 15% last week. The implied probability that Boris Johnson becomes the next prime minister is higher than last week too. While this is still deemed fairly unlikely – an implied probability of just under 15% – such an eventuality would presumably significantly increase the chances of a much “harder” Brexit than the government is currently pursuing.
Despite the jitters in betting markets, though, there is still little evidence that investors in financial markets are braced for an early election, or a pivot towards a hard Brexit by some other means. Overall, sterling is roughly where it was before Friday’s Cabinet summit at Chequers – and that is taking into account the mildly disappointing UK economic data released today.
In contrast to the run-up to the EU referendum, there is no sign that investors are purchasing options to protect themselves against the possibility of a sharp fall in sterling in the near future either. And UK small-cap equities, which suffered disproportionately just after the vote to leave the EU, have risen since Friday.
Looking ahead, our central forecast is that sterling will rise from about $1.33 to $1.40 by the end of the year. This is based on the assumption that continued progress will be made towards a soft form of Brexit. (Indeed, since the EU is likely to reject the proposal approved by the Cabinet at Chequers, the government may end up negotiating an even closer relationship with the EU.) It also rests on our view that the Bank of England will tighten monetary policy faster than investors are anticipating.
Of course, a hard Brexit cannot be ruled out, especially given that the clock is ticking. But even a successful challenge to Theresa May’s leadership would not necessarily bring about this outcome, particularly given that it currently lacks parliamentary support.
More positive employment data from the US, with the latest job opening numbers (one of the key pieces of information considered by the Federal Reserve under former chair Janet Yellen):More positive employment data from the US, with the latest job opening numbers (one of the key pieces of information considered by the Federal Reserve under former chair Janet Yellen):
Latest "JOLTS" numbers just posted from late May reflect some decline in total number of job openings in the U.S., but still robust at 6.6 million. More Americans were willing to leave their jobs, showing confidence about their prospects.Latest "JOLTS" numbers just posted from late May reflect some decline in total number of job openings in the U.S., but still robust at 6.6 million. More Americans were willing to leave their jobs, showing confidence about their prospects.
Markets continue to edge higher, with the absence of further trade war developments helping to give some support. Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said:Markets continue to edge higher, with the absence of further trade war developments helping to give some support. Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said:
A fairly uneventful session allowed the Western indices to push higher, with the Dow Jones climbing to a fresh 3 week peak.A fairly uneventful session allowed the Western indices to push higher, with the Dow Jones climbing to a fresh 3 week peak.
Rising 140 points, the Dow Jones crossed the 24900 mark for the first time since 19th May. The main driver of the index’s recent growth appears to be a lack of trade war escalation in the last week or so. And while that may sound odd given that Friday saw the tariff tit-for-tatting between the US and China, those measures were well-trailed, and since then there hasn’t been anything to cause another macro-wobble.Rising 140 points, the Dow Jones crossed the 24900 mark for the first time since 19th May. The main driver of the index’s recent growth appears to be a lack of trade war escalation in the last week or so. And while that may sound odd given that Friday saw the tariff tit-for-tatting between the US and China, those measures were well-trailed, and since then there hasn’t been anything to cause another macro-wobble.
Over in the Eurozone the region’s indices benefited from the euro’s poor performance. The single currency has struggled in light of a trade war-hit pair of dismal ZEW economic sentiment readings, dropping 0.3% against the dollar and 0.4% against the pound. This in turn meant that the DAX and CAC could climb 0.6% and 0.5% respectively, taking the German index back above 12600.Over in the Eurozone the region’s indices benefited from the euro’s poor performance. The single currency has struggled in light of a trade war-hit pair of dismal ZEW economic sentiment readings, dropping 0.3% against the dollar and 0.4% against the pound. This in turn meant that the DAX and CAC could climb 0.6% and 0.5% respectively, taking the German index back above 12600.
As for the FTSE, the UK index couldn’t quite match the growth seen elsewhere, posting a disappointing 0.1% increase. That did, however, still keep the FTSE above 7700, and at an effective 3 and a half week high.As for the FTSE, the UK index couldn’t quite match the growth seen elsewhere, posting a disappointing 0.1% increase. That did, however, still keep the FTSE above 7700, and at an effective 3 and a half week high.
Over in the US, markets have got off to a positive start, helped by better than expected results from PepsiCo and a rise in oil shares as crude is supported by supply problems.Over in the US, markets have got off to a positive start, helped by better than expected results from PepsiCo and a rise in oil shares as crude is supported by supply problems.
So the Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed 108 points or 0.44% in early trading, while the S&P 500 opened 0.16% higher and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.19%.So the Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed 108 points or 0.44% in early trading, while the S&P 500 opened 0.16% higher and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.19%.
Following the official UK growth figures, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research has published its latest GDP forecasts, which suggest a pick-up in the second quarter.Following the official UK growth figures, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research has published its latest GDP forecasts, which suggest a pick-up in the second quarter.
The think tank said the 0.2% growth seen in the three months to May was in line with its own forecasts. It now expects the UK economy to grow by 0.4% in the three months to June, as the effects of the bad weather earlier in the year drop out of the equation.The think tank said the 0.2% growth seen in the three months to May was in line with its own forecasts. It now expects the UK economy to grow by 0.4% in the three months to June, as the effects of the bad weather earlier in the year drop out of the equation.
For the third quarter it expects GDP growth to improve to 0.5%, as the manufacturing and construction sectors recover from a particularly weak start to the year and the service sector grows slightly faster. Amit Kara, head of UK macroeconomic forecasting, said:For the third quarter it expects GDP growth to improve to 0.5%, as the manufacturing and construction sectors recover from a particularly weak start to the year and the service sector grows slightly faster. Amit Kara, head of UK macroeconomic forecasting, said:
The economy is showing clear signs of recovering from the unexpected slowdown in the first quarter. Taking the business surveys together, we believe that this recovery will be most noticeable in manufacturing and construction where output should start to increase once more. Overall though, we continue to expect the economy to grow broadly in line with its potential in the second and third quarters and not by enough to compensate for the slowdown in the first quarter.The economy is showing clear signs of recovering from the unexpected slowdown in the first quarter. Taking the business surveys together, we believe that this recovery will be most noticeable in manufacturing and construction where output should start to increase once more. Overall though, we continue to expect the economy to grow broadly in line with its potential in the second and third quarters and not by enough to compensate for the slowdown in the first quarter.
There are a number of plausible explanations for the weakness in the first quarter and the subsequent recovery. Extreme weather in the UK in March appears to have impacted adversely on the construction sector and to some extent on the retail sector as well. Growth in the Euro Area, our largest trading partner, also slowed and some of the weakness there can be attributed to similar one-off factors, particularly in France and Germany. Although Brexit and protectionist agendas loom large, there is little clear evidence that these factors specifically dragged economic growth lower in the first quarter. The international picture is mixed. Activity in the Euro Area has recovered since the first quarter slowdown, but growth is likely to be subdued in the single currency block compared with the pace achieved in 2017. By contrast, economic growth in the US is expected to gain momentum as the full effects of the fiscal expansion take effect.There are a number of plausible explanations for the weakness in the first quarter and the subsequent recovery. Extreme weather in the UK in March appears to have impacted adversely on the construction sector and to some extent on the retail sector as well. Growth in the Euro Area, our largest trading partner, also slowed and some of the weakness there can be attributed to similar one-off factors, particularly in France and Germany. Although Brexit and protectionist agendas loom large, there is little clear evidence that these factors specifically dragged economic growth lower in the first quarter. The international picture is mixed. Activity in the Euro Area has recovered since the first quarter slowdown, but growth is likely to be subdued in the single currency block compared with the pace achieved in 2017. By contrast, economic growth in the US is expected to gain momentum as the full effects of the fiscal expansion take effect.
Britain’s economy has picked up pace, according to the first ever monthly GDP reading. GDP rose by 0.3% during May, the Office for National Statistics says, up from 0.2% in April as growth benefitted from warmer weather.Britain’s economy has picked up pace, according to the first ever monthly GDP reading. GDP rose by 0.3% during May, the Office for National Statistics says, up from 0.2% in April as growth benefitted from warmer weather.
The ONS also reports that the economy stagnated in the February-April quarter, before picking up with 0.2% growth in March-May.The ONS also reports that the economy stagnated in the February-April quarter, before picking up with 0.2% growth in March-May.
The data shows that Britain’s economy remains unbalanced. The services sector provided the bulk of the growth, while construction and manufacturing both shrank in the last three months.The data shows that Britain’s economy remains unbalanced. The services sector provided the bulk of the growth, while construction and manufacturing both shrank in the last three months.
The ONS said that retail spending and computer programming boosted growth.The ONS said that retail spending and computer programming boosted growth.
Some economists believe this increases the chances of an August interest rat rise; others suspect that political instability might deter the Bank of England.Some economists believe this increases the chances of an August interest rat rise; others suspect that political instability might deter the Bank of England.
Separate figures have shown that Britain’s trade deficit widened, partly due to a big drop in car exports.Separate figures have shown that Britain’s trade deficit widened, partly due to a big drop in car exports.
German investor morale has fallen to a six-year low, as the threat of a trade war hurts confidence.German investor morale has fallen to a six-year low, as the threat of a trade war hurts confidence.
Newsflash: 25 Poundworld stores are shutting, with the loss of 242 jobs.Newsflash: 25 Poundworld stores are shutting, with the loss of 242 jobs.
Deloitte, which took control of the discount retailer after it went bust last month, is closing the stores because it hasn’t yet found a buyer for the chain.Deloitte, which took control of the discount retailer after it went bust last month, is closing the stores because it hasn’t yet found a buyer for the chain.
The Press Association explains:The Press Association explains:
A memo to staff penned by the professional services firm, and seen by the Press Association, said: “As previously advised, the administrators have been preparing contingency plans in the event that we are not able to deliver a sale of the business as a whole.A memo to staff penned by the professional services firm, and seen by the Press Association, said: “As previously advised, the administrators have been preparing contingency plans in the event that we are not able to deliver a sale of the business as a whole.
“These plans have been continuing and it is with regret that the administrators have taken the decision to effect an organised wind down of 25 stores, starting today.”“These plans have been continuing and it is with regret that the administrators have taken the decision to effect an organised wind down of 25 stores, starting today.”
That last day of trading for the affected stores will be July 15.That last day of trading for the affected stores will be July 15.
Poundworld has more than 300 stores across the UK. The 25 stores earmarked for closure are located in:Poundworld has more than 300 stores across the UK. The 25 stores earmarked for closure are located in:
DoncasterDoncaster
North ShieldsNorth Shields
WakefieldWakefield
StretfordStretford
Sutton CoalfieldSutton Coalfield
AshtonAshton
BlackburnBlackburn
Manchester ArndaleManchester Arndale
DentonDenton
Derby West FieldDerby West Field
Nottingham BroadmarshNottingham Broadmarsh
GraysGrays
MiddlebrookMiddlebrook
ChesterChester
Newcastle WallsendNewcastle Wallsend
Bradford IvegateBradford Ivegate
BirminghamBirmingham
CreweCrewe
HalifaxHalifax
Liverpool Bell ValeLiverpool Bell Vale
LoughboroughLoughborough
IpswichIpswich
CarmarthenCarmarthen
DumfriesDumfries
HydeHyde
Meanwhile in Germany, investor confidence has sagged to its lowest level in six years.Meanwhile in Germany, investor confidence has sagged to its lowest level in six years.
The ZEW index of German investor morale dropped to -24.7 in July from -16.1 in June. That’s the weakest reading since August 2012, when the eurozone crisis was raging.The ZEW index of German investor morale dropped to -24.7 in July from -16.1 in June. That’s the weakest reading since August 2012, when the eurozone crisis was raging.
German ZEW Investor Confidence Lowest Since Aug 2012Chart shows ZEW historically against EURUSD pic.twitter.com/2LdOPWGSjgGerman ZEW Investor Confidence Lowest Since Aug 2012Chart shows ZEW historically against EURUSD pic.twitter.com/2LdOPWGSjg
Achim Wambach, president of ZEW (an economic think tank) blamed “great political uncertainty” for making German business leaders jittery.Achim Wambach, president of ZEW (an economic think tank) blamed “great political uncertainty” for making German business leaders jittery.
In particular, fears over an escalation of the international trade war with the United States have dampened the economic outlook.In particular, fears over an escalation of the international trade war with the United States have dampened the economic outlook.
The positive news regarding industrial production, incoming orders and the labour market have been greatly overshadowed by the anticipated negative effects on foreign trade.”The positive news regarding industrial production, incoming orders and the labour market have been greatly overshadowed by the anticipated negative effects on foreign trade.”
Here’s our economics correspondent, Richard Partington, on today’s growth figures:Here’s our economics correspondent, Richard Partington, on today’s growth figures:
The start of the summer heatwave has helped the British economy recover ground after grinding to a halt earlier this year, despite a severe downturn for the manufacturing industry in the three months to May.The start of the summer heatwave has helped the British economy recover ground after grinding to a halt earlier this year, despite a severe downturn for the manufacturing industry in the three months to May.
Presenting its first ever estimates for gross domestic product (GDP) on a monthly basis, the Office for National Statistics said warmer weather and the royal wedding in May helped Britain bounce back from zero growth in March, when the “beast from the east” caused the UK economy to flatline.Presenting its first ever estimates for gross domestic product (GDP) on a monthly basis, the Office for National Statistics said warmer weather and the royal wedding in May helped Britain bounce back from zero growth in March, when the “beast from the east” caused the UK economy to flatline.
GDP increased by 0.3% in May, up from 0.2% in April, as shoppers returned to the high street and activity among computer programming companies and law firms increased.GDP increased by 0.3% in May, up from 0.2% in April, as shoppers returned to the high street and activity among computer programming companies and law firms increased.
Overall, the ONS said average growth for the three months to the end of May was 0.2%, meeting economists’ expectations.Overall, the ONS said average growth for the three months to the end of May was 0.2%, meeting economists’ expectations.
More here:More here:
Suren Thiru, Head of Economics at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), isn’t too impressed by the pick-up in growth in May.Suren Thiru, Head of Economics at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), isn’t too impressed by the pick-up in growth in May.
He says the UK economy remains “underwhelming”, and unbalanced -- and is also concerned that the trade gap has widened.He says the UK economy remains “underwhelming”, and unbalanced -- and is also concerned that the trade gap has widened.
“The latest GDP data confirms that there was a modest rally in economic activity over recent months but coming after the marked slowdown in the first quarter there is further confirmation that UK growth remains underwhelming.“The latest GDP data confirms that there was a modest rally in economic activity over recent months but coming after the marked slowdown in the first quarter there is further confirmation that UK growth remains underwhelming.
“The uptick in growth also masks a number of key concerns. The persistent imbalances in the UK economy remain, so while there was solid growth in the services sector, industrial production and construction sectors are adding little to overall growth. The widening in the UK’s trade deficit for the second successive month is also a concern and means that trade is likely to have been a drag on GDP in the second quarter of the year.“The uptick in growth also masks a number of key concerns. The persistent imbalances in the UK economy remain, so while there was solid growth in the services sector, industrial production and construction sectors are adding little to overall growth. The widening in the UK’s trade deficit for the second successive month is also a concern and means that trade is likely to have been a drag on GDP in the second quarter of the year.
It’s probable that the UK is past peak-trading conditions for exporters, with slowing global growth and the prospect of a trade war weighing on demand for UK goods and services.It’s probable that the UK is past peak-trading conditions for exporters, with slowing global growth and the prospect of a trade war weighing on demand for UK goods and services.
“While we still expect UK growth to have picked up in the second quarter as a whole, there remains little sign of a prolonged upswing in the UK’s growth trajectory. The current political and Brexit related uncertainty, as well as the failure to deal with longstanding issues such as weak productivity, are likely to weigh on economic activity over the near term.“While we still expect UK growth to have picked up in the second quarter as a whole, there remains little sign of a prolonged upswing in the UK’s growth trajectory. The current political and Brexit related uncertainty, as well as the failure to deal with longstanding issues such as weak productivity, are likely to weigh on economic activity over the near term.
Bad news: Britain’s trade deficit with the rest of the world has widened.Bad news: Britain’s trade deficit with the rest of the world has widened.
The ONS reports that the total UK trade deficit widened by £5.0bn in the three months ot May 2008, to £8.3bnThe ONS reports that the total UK trade deficit widened by £5.0bn in the three months ot May 2008, to £8.3bn
It blamed falling goods exports and rising goods imports -- a combination that scuppers the government’s attempts to narrow the trade gap.It blamed falling goods exports and rising goods imports -- a combination that scuppers the government’s attempts to narrow the trade gap.
Car exports took a nasty fall during the quarter, helping to drag total exports down by £3.1bn. Imports jumped by £1.9bn during the quarter.Car exports took a nasty fall during the quarter, helping to drag total exports down by £3.1bn. Imports jumped by £1.9bn during the quarter.
The ONS says that vehicle sales to the US, Oman and Australia all shrank -- which looks like a blow to attempts to build Global Britain after Brexit.The ONS says that vehicle sales to the US, Oman and Australia all shrank -- which looks like a blow to attempts to build Global Britain after Brexit.
The UK trade figures for 3 months to May do not look good. Falling car imports and rising unspecified imports mean a £5bn widening of the total trade deficit to £8.3bn... pic.twitter.com/W8v8B7iNe8The UK trade figures for 3 months to May do not look good. Falling car imports and rising unspecified imports mean a £5bn widening of the total trade deficit to £8.3bn... pic.twitter.com/W8v8B7iNe8
Worrying chart for manufacturing in ONS stats - export growth has fallen to zero in 3 months to May. Appears to show post-Brexit vote (pound devaluation) manufacturing export boom is well and truly over. pic.twitter.com/7kd81i1kpGWorrying chart for manufacturing in ONS stats - export growth has fallen to zero in 3 months to May. Appears to show post-Brexit vote (pound devaluation) manufacturing export boom is well and truly over. pic.twitter.com/7kd81i1kpG
The report also shows how dependent Britain is on trade with Europe:The report also shows how dependent Britain is on trade with Europe:
The UK imported 55% of its goods from the EU and exported 51% of its goods to countries outside of the EU in the 12 months to May 2018.The UK imported 55% of its goods from the EU and exported 51% of its goods to countries outside of the EU in the 12 months to May 2018.
Britain’s economy appears to have bounced back, following a “lacklustre” performance earlier this year.Britain’s economy appears to have bounced back, following a “lacklustre” performance earlier this year.
So says Charles Hepworth, investment director at asset management firm GAM:So says Charles Hepworth, investment director at asset management firm GAM:
“The UK economy appeared to bounce back over the last three months compared to its lacklustre performance in the first quarter of 2018. GDP grew 0.2% in the three months to the end of May with the month of May alone delivering 0.3%. The ONS has now changed how it calculates GDP. Instead of the previous quarterly estimates, it will now deliver monthly estimates along with a rolling three month number in an effort to provide more accurate numbers that aren’t so prone to revisions.“The UK economy appeared to bounce back over the last three months compared to its lacklustre performance in the first quarter of 2018. GDP grew 0.2% in the three months to the end of May with the month of May alone delivering 0.3%. The ONS has now changed how it calculates GDP. Instead of the previous quarterly estimates, it will now deliver monthly estimates along with a rolling three month number in an effort to provide more accurate numbers that aren’t so prone to revisions.
“Services, accounting for 80% of the economy, predictably was where the growth was seen – retail performed strongly, with the Royal Wedding no doubt helping.“Services, accounting for 80% of the economy, predictably was where the growth was seen – retail performed strongly, with the Royal Wedding no doubt helping.
Professor Costas Milas of the University of Liverpool has calculated that the new monthly GDP data released today gives a rosier picture of UK growth since the EU referendum.Professor Costas Milas of the University of Liverpool has calculated that the new monthly GDP data released today gives a rosier picture of UK growth since the EU referendum.
He tells me:He tells me:
I have plotted together annual GDP growth (based on the latest release of quarterly GDP data) and inferred annual growth (based on today’s release of monthly GDP data from ONS code: ECY2 ).I have plotted together annual GDP growth (based on the latest release of quarterly GDP data) and inferred annual growth (based on today’s release of monthly GDP data from ONS code: ECY2 ).
The monthly data paint a much rosier picture from 2016Q3 onwards. To the extent that the MPC members decide to trust today’s monthly GDP data, it is more likely than not that they will hike in August, unless, of course, Boris Johnson and his Brexit colleagues have other ideas about the government’s fate!The monthly data paint a much rosier picture from 2016Q3 onwards. To the extent that the MPC members decide to trust today’s monthly GDP data, it is more likely than not that they will hike in August, unless, of course, Boris Johnson and his Brexit colleagues have other ideas about the government’s fate!
Here’s a chart showing the details:Here’s a chart showing the details:
This chart from Morgan Stanley shows how services drove the UK’s economic growth in the last three months:This chart from Morgan Stanley shows how services drove the UK’s economic growth in the last three months:
MS’s Jacob Nell says:MS’s Jacob Nell says:
The UK’s first monthly GDP print showed growth picking up in May, driven in particular by a strong services sector, helped by a partial May rebound in construction and manufacturing.The UK’s first monthly GDP print showed growth picking up in May, driven in particular by a strong services sector, helped by a partial May rebound in construction and manufacturing.
Services strong, manufacturing and construction weak: While services grew strongly manufacturing and IP remained drags on growth on the 3M measure. However, manufacturing and construction bounced back partially in May.Services strong, manufacturing and construction weak: While services grew strongly manufacturing and IP remained drags on growth on the 3M measure. However, manufacturing and construction bounced back partially in May.
May rebound keep August hike on track: This print is the last GDP data before the MPC’s August 2 decision. They look consistent with a solid 2Q rebound – consistent with the MPC’s 0.4%Q forecast – and keep our call for an August hike on track, we think.May rebound keep August hike on track: This print is the last GDP data before the MPC’s August 2 decision. They look consistent with a solid 2Q rebound – consistent with the MPC’s 0.4%Q forecast – and keep our call for an August hike on track, we think.