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| Markets shrug off trade fears but pound falls on Trump Brexit comments - business live | Markets shrug off trade fears but pound falls on Trump Brexit comments - business live |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| More on the record Chinese trade surplus with the US. David Cheetham, chief market analyst at XTB, said: | |
| Trade remains one of the key topics for investors at present, with China announcing a record surplus with the US for the month of June. In Trump’s simplistic view of trade, the president views a deficit as a loss to the US, and therefore he will clearly be unhappy with the record high $29B shown against China for last month. The recently announced tariffs should see this fall in the present month, but it is unlikely to contribute to a major decline immediately with the tariffs themselves still only representing a fairly small portion of overall trade. | |
| Another development that will likely attract the ire of Trump is the ongoing depreciation of the Chinese yuan, which is on course for its fifth consecutive week of losses against the US dollar - its longest weekly losing streak in two years. | |
| Here’s more apparent fallout from the trade tensions between the US and China, courtesy of Reuters: | Here’s more apparent fallout from the trade tensions between the US and China, courtesy of Reuters: |
| A hotel in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen on Friday denied a report that it would charge U.S. guests an extra 25 percent amid an escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing. | A hotel in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen on Friday denied a report that it would charge U.S. guests an extra 25 percent amid an escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing. |
| However, three staff members who declined to be identified told Reuters that a discriminatory rate policy had indeed been posted at the hotel as of Thursday but had since been removed. | However, three staff members who declined to be identified told Reuters that a discriminatory rate policy had indeed been posted at the hotel as of Thursday but had since been removed. |
| The Global Times, a hawkish tabloid published by the ruling Communist Party’s People’s Daily, said in a report dated Thursday that the Modern Classic Hotel Group had put up a notice at its hotel informing guests of the extra charge. | The Global Times, a hawkish tabloid published by the ruling Communist Party’s People’s Daily, said in a report dated Thursday that the Modern Classic Hotel Group had put up a notice at its hotel informing guests of the extra charge. |
| It cited a spokesperson at the hotel, surnamed Yang, saying that the hotel had posted the notice last Friday. | It cited a spokesperson at the hotel, surnamed Yang, saying that the hotel had posted the notice last Friday. |
| “We have no idea where this news came from. My phone has been ringing off the hook all day today,” Bai Lulu, a front office manager, told Reuters at the hotel. | “We have no idea where this news came from. My phone has been ringing off the hook all day today,” Bai Lulu, a front office manager, told Reuters at the hotel. |
| “We treat all our guests equally. We wouldn*t charge one type of guest more than another type of guest,” Bai said, adding that the hotel did not currently have any American guests. | “We treat all our guests equally. We wouldn*t charge one type of guest more than another type of guest,” Bai said, adding that the hotel did not currently have any American guests. |
| However, another staff member, declining to be identified, said there had indeed been notices saying Americans would be charged extra. | However, another staff member, declining to be identified, said there had indeed been notices saying Americans would be charged extra. |
| “There were ads up yesterday in the restaurant stating Americans would be charged 25 percent extra. We took photos.” | “There were ads up yesterday in the restaurant stating Americans would be charged 25 percent extra. We took photos.” |
| The Global Times had cited a spokesperson for the hotel surnamed Yang as saying their boss was “really angry about the endless tariffs the U.S. planned to impose on China”. | The Global Times had cited a spokesperson for the hotel surnamed Yang as saying their boss was “really angry about the endless tariffs the U.S. planned to impose on China”. |
| The pound continues to slip against the dollar as investors weigh up Donald Trump’s inflammatory comments about Theresa May’s Brexit proposals meaning no UK-US trade deal. It is currently down 0.64% at $1.3119, after hitting a low for the week of $1.3117. | The pound continues to slip against the dollar as investors weigh up Donald Trump’s inflammatory comments about Theresa May’s Brexit proposals meaning no UK-US trade deal. It is currently down 0.64% at $1.3119, after hitting a low for the week of $1.3117. |
| Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index, said: | Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index, said: |
| US President Trump has put his counterpart Teresa May in a difficult position this morning saying that a soft Brexit would mean no trade deal between the UK and US. This comes a day after May released a white paper on the UK-Europe relationship after Brexit, offering a softer stance ahead of next week’s vote on a Brexit trade bill. | US President Trump has put his counterpart Teresa May in a difficult position this morning saying that a soft Brexit would mean no trade deal between the UK and US. This comes a day after May released a white paper on the UK-Europe relationship after Brexit, offering a softer stance ahead of next week’s vote on a Brexit trade bill. |
| The UK can’t afford to alienate either the US or the EU, its two largest foreign trade partners, and will not be able to choose an “either-or” solution. Trump’s comments come at a particularly bad time for May who is facing bigger problems as her government is in a precarious balance after the resignations of David Davis and Boris Johnson earlier this week. The pound dropped 0.6% against the dollar following Trump’s remarks. | The UK can’t afford to alienate either the US or the EU, its two largest foreign trade partners, and will not be able to choose an “either-or” solution. Trump’s comments come at a particularly bad time for May who is facing bigger problems as her government is in a precarious balance after the resignations of David Davis and Boris Johnson earlier this week. The pound dropped 0.6% against the dollar following Trump’s remarks. |
| Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said: | Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said: |
| For the second day in a row the markets ignored Donald Trump’s aggressive posturing to rebound, climbing back towards the levels abandoned at the start of the week. Not that there wasn’t at least one casualty of the President’s big mouth... | For the second day in a row the markets ignored Donald Trump’s aggressive posturing to rebound, climbing back towards the levels abandoned at the start of the week. Not that there wasn’t at least one casualty of the President’s big mouth... |
| The FTSE led the way after the bell, the UK index adding another 60 points to re-cross 7700. That’s put the FTSE back in the ballpark of Monday and Tuesday’s 3 and a half week highs, showing the extent to which investors are trying to ignore the ongoing trade war between the US and China unless they specifically have a new threat to deal with. | The FTSE led the way after the bell, the UK index adding another 60 points to re-cross 7700. That’s put the FTSE back in the ballpark of Monday and Tuesday’s 3 and a half week highs, showing the extent to which investors are trying to ignore the ongoing trade war between the US and China unless they specifically have a new threat to deal with. |
| The pound, on the other hand, couldn’t help but pay attention to the President... Trump claimed that Theresa May’s current Brexit plan ‘will probably kill’ any potential US trade deal, a comment that not only undermines the Prime Minister at the end of an already challenging week, but one that understandably sent sterling sharply lower. Against the dollar the pound fell 0.6%, forcing cable under $1.315 and to its worst price since the start of the month, while it also trickled 0.2% lower against the euro, where it slipped to €1.129. | The pound, on the other hand, couldn’t help but pay attention to the President... Trump claimed that Theresa May’s current Brexit plan ‘will probably kill’ any potential US trade deal, a comment that not only undermines the Prime Minister at the end of an already challenging week, but one that understandably sent sterling sharply lower. Against the dollar the pound fell 0.6%, forcing cable under $1.315 and to its worst price since the start of the month, while it also trickled 0.2% lower against the euro, where it slipped to €1.129. |
| Not that the euro was looking too good against the greenback, the single currency slumping 0.4% to hits its own 2 week nadir. This allowed the Eurozone indices to do the same as the FTSE, with the DAX and CAC rising 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. | Not that the euro was looking too good against the greenback, the single currency slumping 0.4% to hits its own 2 week nadir. This allowed the Eurozone indices to do the same as the FTSE, with the DAX and CAC rising 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. |
| Only three fallers in the FTSE 100: Randgold Resources as the gold price dips, credit specialist Experian following a trading update and Sky, as investors take some profits after Thursday’s rise on the back of the bid battle between Rupert Murdoch and Comcast for the satellite broadcaster. | Only three fallers in the FTSE 100: Randgold Resources as the gold price dips, credit specialist Experian following a trading update and Sky, as investors take some profits after Thursday’s rise on the back of the bid battle between Rupert Murdoch and Comcast for the satellite broadcaster. |
| As expected, investors continue to push the markets higher as European trading begins. | As expected, investors continue to push the markets higher as European trading begins. |
| The FTSE 100 is up 0.68% at 7704, Germany’s Dax has risen 0.45% , France’s Cac has climbed 0.41% while Italy’s FTSE MIB is 0.43% better. | The FTSE 100 is up 0.68% at 7704, Germany’s Dax has risen 0.45% , France’s Cac has climbed 0.41% while Italy’s FTSE MIB is 0.43% better. |
| Michael van Dulken at Accendo Markets said the Chinese trade figures were a double edged sword: | Michael van Dulken at Accendo Markets said the Chinese trade figures were a double edged sword: |
| [They are] supportive of global growth but backing up Trump’s trade grievances. | [They are] supportive of global growth but backing up Trump’s trade grievances. |
| More on China’s trade figures, and more fuel for Donald Trump’s dispute with the country. The latest figures show a record trade surplus with the US as Chinese exporters rushed to sell goods to America ahead of the imposition of Trump’s tariffs. Reuters reports: | More on China’s trade figures, and more fuel for Donald Trump’s dispute with the country. The latest figures show a record trade surplus with the US as Chinese exporters rushed to sell goods to America ahead of the imposition of Trump’s tariffs. Reuters reports: |
| China’s trade surplus with the United States swelled to a record in June as its overall exports remained solid, a result that could further inflame a bitter trade dispute with Washington. | China’s trade surplus with the United States swelled to a record in June as its overall exports remained solid, a result that could further inflame a bitter trade dispute with Washington. |
| The data came after the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump raised the stakes in its trade row with China on Tuesday, saying it would slap 10 percent tariffs on an extra $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, including numerous consumer items. | The data came after the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump raised the stakes in its trade row with China on Tuesday, saying it would slap 10 percent tariffs on an extra $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, including numerous consumer items. |
| China’s trade surplus with the United States, which is at the centre of the tariff tussle, widened to a record monthly high of $28.97 billion, up from $24.58 billion in May, according to Reuters calculations based on official data going back to 2008. | China’s trade surplus with the United States, which is at the centre of the tariff tussle, widened to a record monthly high of $28.97 billion, up from $24.58 billion in May, according to Reuters calculations based on official data going back to 2008. |
| Trump, who has demanded Beijing cut the trade surplus, could use the latest result to further ratchet up pressure on China after both sides last week imposed tit-for-tat tariffs on $34 billion of each other’s goods. Washington has warned it may ultimately impose tariffs on more than $500 billion worth of Chinese goods - nearly the total amount of U.S. imports from China last year. | Trump, who has demanded Beijing cut the trade surplus, could use the latest result to further ratchet up pressure on China after both sides last week imposed tit-for-tat tariffs on $34 billion of each other’s goods. Washington has warned it may ultimately impose tariffs on more than $500 billion worth of Chinese goods - nearly the total amount of U.S. imports from China last year. |
| The dispute has jolted global financial markets, raising worries a full-scale trade war could derail the world economy. Chinese stocks fell into bear market territory and the yuan currency has skidded, though there have been signs in recent days its central bank is moving to slow the currency’s declines. | The dispute has jolted global financial markets, raising worries a full-scale trade war could derail the world economy. Chinese stocks fell into bear market territory and the yuan currency has skidded, though there have been signs in recent days its central bank is moving to slow the currency’s declines. |
| China’s June exports rose 11.3 percent from a year earlier, China General Administration of Customs reported, beating forecasts for a 10 percent increase according to the latest Reuters poll of 39 analysts, and down from a 12.6 percent gain in May. | China’s June exports rose 11.3 percent from a year earlier, China General Administration of Customs reported, beating forecasts for a 10 percent increase according to the latest Reuters poll of 39 analysts, and down from a 12.6 percent gain in May. |
| China’s commerce ministry confirmed last month that Chinese exporters were front-loading exports to the U.S. to get ahead of expected tariffs - a situation that could exacerbate any slowdown in shipments toward the year-end. | China’s commerce ministry confirmed last month that Chinese exporters were front-loading exports to the U.S. to get ahead of expected tariffs - a situation that could exacerbate any slowdown in shipments toward the year-end. |
| “Looking ahead, export growth will cool in the coming months as US tariffs start to bite alongside a broader softening in global demand,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, Senior China Economist at Capital Economics in Singapore wrote in a note, though he noted a weaker yuan should help offset some of the decline. | “Looking ahead, export growth will cool in the coming months as US tariffs start to bite alongside a broader softening in global demand,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, Senior China Economist at Capital Economics in Singapore wrote in a note, though he noted a weaker yuan should help offset some of the decline. |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| With Donald Trump focussed on the Nato budget, Brexit and bigging up Boris Johnson, investors have managed to put fears of an escalating trade war behind them for the moment. | With Donald Trump focussed on the Nato budget, Brexit and bigging up Boris Johnson, investors have managed to put fears of an escalating trade war behind them for the moment. |
| Following a slump earlier in the week as Trump threatened to slap tariffs on another $200bn worth of Chinese imports to the US - ranging from human hair to sculptures - markets have managed to regain their composure. With no new developments since then - although China has yet to spell out how it will, inevitably, retaliate - the positive mood is set to continue when traders begin work this morning. | Following a slump earlier in the week as Trump threatened to slap tariffs on another $200bn worth of Chinese imports to the US - ranging from human hair to sculptures - markets have managed to regain their composure. With no new developments since then - although China has yet to spell out how it will, inevitably, retaliate - the positive mood is set to continue when traders begin work this morning. |
| David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said: | David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said: |
| The absence of harsh words from the US and China encouraged traders to step into the market and snap up stocks. Investors are getting used to the pattern, whereby equity markets can recover after a big sell-off that was triggered on account of trade tensions. In keeping with recent trends, the US indices held up better than their European counterparts. The S&P 500 hit its highest level since early March and the NASDAQ 100 hit an all-time high. Dealers believe the US is in a stronger position to weather the storm than the rest of the world, and that is why the US equity benchmarks are outperforming. | The absence of harsh words from the US and China encouraged traders to step into the market and snap up stocks. Investors are getting used to the pattern, whereby equity markets can recover after a big sell-off that was triggered on account of trade tensions. In keeping with recent trends, the US indices held up better than their European counterparts. The S&P 500 hit its highest level since early March and the NASDAQ 100 hit an all-time high. Dealers believe the US is in a stronger position to weather the storm than the rest of the world, and that is why the US equity benchmarks are outperforming. |
| Steven Mnuchin, the US secretary of the Treasury, revealed that many of the trade talks with China have broken down, however, he confirmed that China is very important in cooperation with North Korea. These remarks suggest the US doesn’t want to be too aggressive with Beijing, which is also giving investors hope. | Steven Mnuchin, the US secretary of the Treasury, revealed that many of the trade talks with China have broken down, however, he confirmed that China is very important in cooperation with North Korea. These remarks suggest the US doesn’t want to be too aggressive with Beijing, which is also giving investors hope. |
| Wall Street closed up 0.9% and the Nikkei 225 has gained more than 1.9%, so Europe is forecast to open higher: | Wall Street closed up 0.9% and the Nikkei 225 has gained more than 1.9%, so Europe is forecast to open higher: |
| European Opening Calls:#FTSE 7692 +0.54%#DAX 12549 +0.45%#CAC 5431 +0.46%#MIB 21902 +0.51%#IBEX 9812 +0.46% | European Opening Calls:#FTSE 7692 +0.54%#DAX 12549 +0.45%#CAC 5431 +0.46%#MIB 21902 +0.51%#IBEX 9812 +0.46% |
| China released trade figures overnight showing stronger than expected exports, up 11.3% compared to estimates of a 10% increase. Imports rose by 14.1% compared to forecasts of a 20.8% increase. None of this is likely to deter Trump from his view of unfair trade practices from China. CMC’s Madden said: | China released trade figures overnight showing stronger than expected exports, up 11.3% compared to estimates of a 10% increase. Imports rose by 14.1% compared to forecasts of a 20.8% increase. None of this is likely to deter Trump from his view of unfair trade practices from China. CMC’s Madden said: |
| It is impressive that exports topped forecasts given that US tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium kicked in last month. The massive trade surplus that China has with the US is one of the reasons that President Trump instigated the trade spat, and dealers will be keeping an eye on developments. | It is impressive that exports topped forecasts given that US tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium kicked in last month. The massive trade surplus that China has with the US is one of the reasons that President Trump instigated the trade spat, and dealers will be keeping an eye on developments. |
| Elsewhere the pound is down following Trump’s comments that prime minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan may mean no trade deal with the US. Against the dollar sterling is down 0.34% at $1.3160 while it has fallen 0.17% against the euro to €1.1292. The dip is likely to help the FTSE 100, which is packed with overseas earners which benefit from a weaker pound. Jasper Lawler, head of researh at London Capital Group, said: | Elsewhere the pound is down following Trump’s comments that prime minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan may mean no trade deal with the US. Against the dollar sterling is down 0.34% at $1.3160 while it has fallen 0.17% against the euro to €1.1292. The dip is likely to help the FTSE 100, which is packed with overseas earners which benefit from a weaker pound. Jasper Lawler, head of researh at London Capital Group, said: |
| Trump’s declaration that this softer version of Brexit would mean that a trade deal with the US was “probably” off the table, was a blow to both host Theresa May and the pound, sending sterling tumbling overnight. Let’s not forget that the hope of a quick trade deal with the US was a significant factor in Theresa May’s decision to invite Trump in the first place. Another embarrassment that May could have done without. | Trump’s declaration that this softer version of Brexit would mean that a trade deal with the US was “probably” off the table, was a blow to both host Theresa May and the pound, sending sterling tumbling overnight. Let’s not forget that the hope of a quick trade deal with the US was a significant factor in Theresa May’s decision to invite Trump in the first place. Another embarrassment that May could have done without. |
| Trump’s words of no deal have confirmed the fears of Brexiteers and will have stoked the fire in the hard Brexit camp, making Theresa May’s future in charge look doubtful once more. This fear was reflected in the pound as it dropped sharply in late night trading. With no high impact UK economic data due for release today, pound traders will continue to watch political developments. Trump and May are expected to hold a joint press conference after lunch where they will both be pressed for trade comments. In the absence of any encouraging trade comments, gains in the pound going forward could be limited, and a meaningful move over $1.32 could be doubtful. | Trump’s words of no deal have confirmed the fears of Brexiteers and will have stoked the fire in the hard Brexit camp, making Theresa May’s future in charge look doubtful once more. This fear was reflected in the pound as it dropped sharply in late night trading. With no high impact UK economic data due for release today, pound traders will continue to watch political developments. Trump and May are expected to hold a joint press conference after lunch where they will both be pressed for trade comments. In the absence of any encouraging trade comments, gains in the pound going forward could be limited, and a meaningful move over $1.32 could be doubtful. |
| There is little in the way of economic news elsewhere either to distract traders from the latest trade and Brexit developments. | There is little in the way of economic news elsewhere either to distract traders from the latest trade and Brexit developments. |
| Follow Trump’s day in our politics live blog: | Follow Trump’s day in our politics live blog: |