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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/16/brexit-what-are-the-customs-and-trade-bills-and-could-may-face-defeat
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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
|---|---|
| What are the customs and trade bills and could May face defeat? | What are the customs and trade bills and could May face defeat? |
| (2 months later) | |
| It is shaping up to be yet another big week for Theresa May on Brexit as she struggles to prop up her Chequers plan. In the next few days the focus will shift to two key Brexit-related bills. | It is shaping up to be yet another big week for Theresa May on Brexit as she struggles to prop up her Chequers plan. In the next few days the focus will shift to two key Brexit-related bills. |
| What are the two bills? | What are the two bills? |
| MPs will debate the customs bill, officially known as the taxation (cross-border trade) bill, and the trade bill. Both seek to lay the regulatory framework for post-Brexit international trade by setting out powers to collect tariffs and other customs charges, and relating to the implementation of international trade deals. | MPs will debate the customs bill, officially known as the taxation (cross-border trade) bill, and the trade bill. Both seek to lay the regulatory framework for post-Brexit international trade by setting out powers to collect tariffs and other customs charges, and relating to the implementation of international trade deals. |
| When do they go before the Commons? | When do they go before the Commons? |
| The customs bill is being debated on Monday and the trade bill on Tuesday. MPs will debate and vote on the committee stage, where a bill can be amended, and the third reading, which is the final stage before a bill goes to the Lords. | The customs bill is being debated on Monday and the trade bill on Tuesday. MPs will debate and vote on the committee stage, where a bill can be amended, and the third reading, which is the final stage before a bill goes to the Lords. |
| What are the risks to May and her government? | What are the risks to May and her government? |
| Amendments to both bills have been tabled by the leave and remain sides of the Conservative party. | Amendments to both bills have been tabled by the leave and remain sides of the Conservative party. |
| On the customs bill, one of the amendments seeks to make it illegal for the UK to collect duties for the EU without reciprocal arrangements, which would scupper May’s proposed customs plan. It has been signed by 11 MPs from the hard Brexit end of the party, including Jacob Rees-Mogg, Priti Patel and Iain Duncan Smith. Another amendment to the customs bill calls for no customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, which is government policy anyway. | On the customs bill, one of the amendments seeks to make it illegal for the UK to collect duties for the EU without reciprocal arrangements, which would scupper May’s proposed customs plan. It has been signed by 11 MPs from the hard Brexit end of the party, including Jacob Rees-Mogg, Priti Patel and Iain Duncan Smith. Another amendment to the customs bill calls for no customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, which is government policy anyway. |
| Amendments have been put forward to both the customs and trade bill seeking to keep the UK in the customs union. This has been signed by the Tory remainers Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke as well as Labour, Liberal Democrat and SNP MPs. | Amendments have been put forward to both the customs and trade bill seeking to keep the UK in the customs union. This has been signed by the Tory remainers Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke as well as Labour, Liberal Democrat and SNP MPs. |
| Finally, there could be rebellions on the third readings, when MPs could object to the entire bills. | Finally, there could be rebellions on the third readings, when MPs could object to the entire bills. |
| What will happen? | What will happen? |
| It seems unlikely May will be defeated in the Commons. None of the amendments seem likely to get enough support, not least as Labour is not expected to back them. The main risk to the prime minister would be an unexpectedly high level of rebellion from either wing of her party, indicating very significant discontent. | It seems unlikely May will be defeated in the Commons. None of the amendments seem likely to get enough support, not least as Labour is not expected to back them. The main risk to the prime minister would be an unexpectedly high level of rebellion from either wing of her party, indicating very significant discontent. |
| Both bills are also expected to pass, even though Labour is expected to oppose them. Pro-leave Tory MPs will not want to scupper the measures – both are needed for Brexit to happen – and Rees-Mogg has said he does not plan to vote against the government on the third readings. | Both bills are also expected to pass, even though Labour is expected to oppose them. Pro-leave Tory MPs will not want to scupper the measures – both are needed for Brexit to happen – and Rees-Mogg has said he does not plan to vote against the government on the third readings. |
| If May avoids defeat, is she out of the woods? | If May avoids defeat, is she out of the woods? |
| Not by some way. There is significant discontent about her Chequers plan among Tory MPs of both stripes, as shown by Justine Greening’s decision overnight to back a second Brexit referendum to end the deadlock in parliament. | Not by some way. There is significant discontent about her Chequers plan among Tory MPs of both stripes, as shown by Justine Greening’s decision overnight to back a second Brexit referendum to end the deadlock in parliament. |
| A key moment could come on Wednesday, which is seen as the informal deadline by which Tory rebels need to amass the 48 letters needed for a leadership challenge, so as to have enough time to have a confidence vote before parliament breaks up for the summer next week. | A key moment could come on Wednesday, which is seen as the informal deadline by which Tory rebels need to amass the 48 letters needed for a leadership challenge, so as to have enough time to have a confidence vote before parliament breaks up for the summer next week. |
| Listen / | |
| Walking the Brexit tightrope at Labour conference – Politics Weekly | |
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| and listen https://flex.acast.com/audio.guim.co.uk/2018/09/26-51111-gdn.pol.180926.podcast.mp3 | |
| Sorry your browser does not support audio - but you can download here | |
| and listen https://flex.acast.com/audio.guim.co.uk/2018/09/26-51111-gdn.pol.180926.podcast.mp3 | |
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