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| What to take to a festival: Friends, drink... and a giant bar chart | What to take to a festival: Friends, drink... and a giant bar chart |
| (about 11 hours later) | |
| Some would say it's the magic of a festival - stumbling upon a random stage and accidentally discovering your new favourite band. | Some would say it's the magic of a festival - stumbling upon a random stage and accidentally discovering your new favourite band. |
| You could call it following your festival instinct. | You could call it following your festival instinct. |
| But what if you ditched all that and did the complete opposite? | But what if you ditched all that and did the complete opposite? |
| What if you took arguably the most nerdy thing in the world - statistics - and used it to try to have the best festival experience ever? | What if you took arguably the most nerdy thing in the world - statistics - and used it to try to have the best festival experience ever? |
| I'm talking planning. I'm talking hard numbers. I'm talking organised fun. | I'm talking planning. I'm talking hard numbers. I'm talking organised fun. |
| I consulted a stats expert, packed up a giant bar chart, and headed to 2000 Trees in Gloucestershire to find out. | I consulted a stats expert, packed up a giant bar chart, and headed to 2000 Trees in Gloucestershire to find out. |
| And - just a warning - this article is incredibly, incredibly geeky. | And - just a warning - this article is incredibly, incredibly geeky. |
| Before the festival started, seven of my friends and I listened to all 116 bands on the line-up and rated them out of 10. | Before the festival started, seven of my friends and I listened to all 116 bands on the line-up and rated them out of 10. |
| There were no strict rules on how much of each act you needed to listen to - but a very conservative estimate would be that it took us 45 hours. Each. | There were no strict rules on how much of each act you needed to listen to - but a very conservative estimate would be that it took us 45 hours. Each. |
| We then used the data to dictate our weekend. | We then used the data to dictate our weekend. |
| And yes, if you're wondering, you can come along to festivals with us in future. | And yes, if you're wondering, you can come along to festivals with us in future. |
| It's a debate every festival-goer will be familiar with - who should we see next? | It's a debate every festival-goer will be familiar with - who should we see next? |
| "You usually end up getting dragged around by the person with the strongest personality," says Dr Mark Taylor from the University of Sheffield. | "You usually end up getting dragged around by the person with the strongest personality," says Dr Mark Taylor from the University of Sheffield. |
| He's spent his career researching music and statistics. | He's spent his career researching music and statistics. |
| With his guidance we ran what's known as a k-means cluster analysis on our data. It's a way of taking absolutely loads of data and putting it into smaller groups or clusters. | With his guidance we ran what's known as a k-means cluster analysis on our data. It's a way of taking absolutely loads of data and putting it into smaller groups or clusters. |
| In the real world, the technique is usually used in marketing to target people with adverts based on what other, similar people are into. | In the real world, the technique is usually used in marketing to target people with adverts based on what other, similar people are into. |
| But in this case we used our scores to split us into four pairs based on who, statistically, had the most similar music tastes. | But in this case we used our scores to split us into four pairs based on who, statistically, had the most similar music tastes. |
| That person then had to spend the day with their statistically-chosen partner - and only watch bands together. | That person then had to spend the day with their statistically-chosen partner - and only watch bands together. |
| "The idea is to see whether - by providing a bunch of preferences in advance - you can use stats to work out who you have the most in common with," Mark explains. | "The idea is to see whether - by providing a bunch of preferences in advance - you can use stats to work out who you have the most in common with," Mark explains. |
| "So while different people might do different things, you're with the person you have the most in common with and you end up having the best time." | "So while different people might do different things, you're with the person you have the most in common with and you end up having the best time." |
| That's the theory anyway. | That's the theory anyway. |
| But did it actually work? Strangely enough, yes. All eight of us agreed we had fewer arguments than usual about who to watch. | But did it actually work? Strangely enough, yes. All eight of us agreed we had fewer arguments than usual about who to watch. |
| Stats - 1, Instinct - 0 | Stats - 1, Instinct - 0 |
| A huge part of any festival is the people you meet - so could we use stats to help our group make some desperately needed new friends? | A huge part of any festival is the people you meet - so could we use stats to help our group make some desperately needed new friends? |
| Using data from Spotify and Facebook we were able to rank all the bands on the line-up from the most famous to the most obscure. | Using data from Spotify and Facebook we were able to rank all the bands on the line-up from the most famous to the most obscure. |
| We then used the ratings to find out which of our group, on average, had given the highest scores to the most obscure bands. | We then used the ratings to find out which of our group, on average, had given the highest scores to the most obscure bands. |
| In other words, the biggest hipster. | In other words, the biggest hipster. |
| Assuming, like most hipsters, they would be irritatingly proud of their edgy music taste - we gave them a T-shirt to help them meet like-minded people. | Assuming, like most hipsters, they would be irritatingly proud of their edgy music taste - we gave them a T-shirt to help them meet like-minded people. |
| There was, unfortunately, less success here - our chosen hipster, George, said people avoided him. Even more than usual. | There was, unfortunately, less success here - our chosen hipster, George, said people avoided him. Even more than usual. |
| Stats - 1, Instinct - 1 | Stats - 1, Instinct - 1 |
| It's another classic festival problem - when to duck out to the local supermarket and get supplies. | It's another classic festival problem - when to duck out to the local supermarket and get supplies. |
| By dividing the weekend up into two-hour blocks, we were able to work out when, on average, we would miss fewest of our favourite bands. | By dividing the weekend up into two-hour blocks, we were able to work out when, on average, we would miss fewest of our favourite bands. |
| Sadly, that turned out to be the two hours after we had just arrived and we didn't really need anything. | Sadly, that turned out to be the two hours after we had just arrived and we didn't really need anything. |
| Not put off by the uselessness of what we'd done, we went anyway and bought a pizza | Not put off by the uselessness of what we'd done, we went anyway and bought a pizza |
| Stats - 1, Instinct - 2 | Stats - 1, Instinct - 2 |
| If you're going to last out a whole festival and stay happy, trying to avoid a big group bust-up is key. | If you're going to last out a whole festival and stay happy, trying to avoid a big group bust-up is key. |
| We worked out the standard deviation for each band's scores - an average which showed us which acts divided the group the most. | We worked out the standard deviation for each band's scores - an average which showed us which acts divided the group the most. |
| We then simply avoided chatting about any of those bands after a few beers. | We then simply avoided chatting about any of those bands after a few beers. |
| Come Monday morning - despite not having made any new friends - our group was still on good terms, so we're loosely chalking this one up as a win. | Come Monday morning - despite not having made any new friends - our group was still on good terms, so we're loosely chalking this one up as a win. |
| Stats - 2, Instinct - 2 | Stats - 2, Instinct - 2 |
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| So, in conclusion - yes the pre-listening takes hundreds of hours of effort, but in some very minor ways it kind of works. | So, in conclusion - yes the pre-listening takes hundreds of hours of effort, but in some very minor ways it kind of works. |
| The main one being that, because we had pre-listened, we ended up discovering dozens of bands we absolutely loved - that otherwise we would most likely have missed (Sløtface, Caleb Harris and Mauwe being my own personal picks). | |
| Could it ever catch on though? | Could it ever catch on though? |
| "I think it's a dead interesting experiment," Mark Taylor says - although he argues to make the stats more meaningful you would need more than eight people. | "I think it's a dead interesting experiment," Mark Taylor says - although he argues to make the stats more meaningful you would need more than eight people. |
| "If you go to a lot of shows it's definitely worth playing around with different kinds of things to see how you get on and whether you enjoy yourself more. | "If you go to a lot of shows it's definitely worth playing around with different kinds of things to see how you get on and whether you enjoy yourself more. |
| "But I work with stats pretty much every day, I know quite a bit about the application of stats to music - and I've never tried anything like this and I probably never will." | "But I work with stats pretty much every day, I know quite a bit about the application of stats to music - and I've never tried anything like this and I probably never will." |
| Cheers Mark. | Cheers Mark. |
| But Rou Reynolds, the lead singer of Enter Shikari, was much more positive when we bumped into him backstage. | But Rou Reynolds, the lead singer of Enter Shikari, was much more positive when we bumped into him backstage. |
| "I'm all for this. I think this should become an industry standard thing that everyone should have to do before a festival," he said. | "I'm all for this. I think this should become an industry standard thing that everyone should have to do before a festival," he said. |
| "I'm all for science and being overly anal about everything - and that's what you guys have done." | "I'm all for science and being overly anal about everything - and that's what you guys have done." |
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| Listen to Newsbeat live at 12:45 and 17:45 every weekday on BBC Radio 1 and 1Xtra - if you miss us you can listen back here. | Listen to Newsbeat live at 12:45 and 17:45 every weekday on BBC Radio 1 and 1Xtra - if you miss us you can listen back here. |