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No-deal Brexit: EU warns its citizens to prepare for the worst Barnier welcomes Raab to Brussels – with the mother of all deadlines
(about 2 hours later)
The EU has issued a warning that the impact of a no-deal scenario would be “very real” for citizens, and left open the question of a visa requirement for Britons travelling to the continent. The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, welcomed Dominic Raab to Brussels on Thursday with a thinly veiled critique of Theresa May’s Chequers plan and a 13-week deadline in which to solve the problem of the Irish border.
In a 16-page document, published by the European commission, the remaining 27 member states, along with businesses, have been urged to step up their preparations for an outcome in which the UK would crash out of the bloc next year. Appearing with Barnier for the first time in the Belgian capital, the UK’s new Brexit secretary, clutching a copy of the UK’s recently published Brexit white paper, called for more “vim, vigour and energy” in the troubled negotiations.
In sectors ranging from financial services to aviation and pharmaceuticals, governments and companies have been told to prepare for the worst, with barriers to the normal running of affairs expected to be erected. The new cabinet minister, a former foreign office lawyer, told reporters that he was “looking forward to intensifying, heating up, the negotiations”, after stepping into the role, following the resignation of David Davis over the paper, which set out how the UK is effectively seeking to stay in the single market for goods by following a raft of EU laws.
A senior EU diplomat said the “volatile” political situation in London and the lack of progress in the talks in Brussels on key issues had led many to believe that the risk of a no-deal scenario had increased in recent weeks. The differing priorities between the two negotiators were clearly evident, however, as they stepped out in front of reporters together at the European commission headquarters.
“Important issues remain open,” the document says. “No progress has been made in agreeing a ‘backstop’ to avoid, independently of the outcome of the negotiations of the future partnership, a hard border on the island of Ireland.” While Raab conceded there were some “gaps” in the withdrawal agreement that needed to be filled, Barnier emphasised the “urgency” of finding a solution for the most thorny issue in that deal: avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland.
The document, Preparing for the Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union on 30 March 2019, warns that the precarious nature of the talks makes action vital. Barnier told reporters: “We have a lot of work to do with out teams. There are, as you know, 13 weeks left, before the October European council. “In this time, short time, we have two things to do. We must finalise the withdrawal agreement and we are not yet there on governance.
“Contingency planning for the worst possible outcome is not a sign of mistrust in the negotiations,” the paper says. “The commission is devoting very significant resources and committing great efforts to achieve an agreement. This remains our goal. However, the outcome of negotiations cannot be predicted.” “We must also prepare a political declaration on our future relationship. On the withdrawal agreement it is a matter of urgency to agree to a legally applicable backstop on Ireland and northern Ireland. We need an all-weather insurance policy.”
The “no deal” document was published hours before the new Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, was to arrive in Brussels for his first meeting with the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, although a commission spokesman denied that the two events were connected. He added: “On the future relationship, the EU proposed in March an unprecedented partnership not only in economic and trade where we want an ambitious free trade agreement that respects the integrity of the market but also on internal and external security, where a close partnership between us means more important than ever given the geo-political context.
The document is stark in its analysis of the impact on economies on both sides of the Channel. “Our challenge will be to find common ground between the fundamental principles that define the EU and the UK positions. That is all for now, more is to come. Stay tuned.”
It says: “The European Union must apply its regulation and tariffs at borders with the United Kingdom as a third country, including checks and controls for customs, sanitary and phytosanitary [regarding plants] standards and verification of compliance with EU norms. The two men took part in a short discussion on the UK’s white paper before dining together at the UK’s embassy in Brussels.
“Transport between the United Kingdom and the European Union would be severely impacted. Customs, sanitary and phytosanitary controls at borders could cause significant delays, eg in road transport, and difficulties for ports.” Barnier gave Raab the book Going to the Mountain by Nelson Mandela’s grandson, Ndaba Mandela, as a gift.
The EU document also covers the movement of British citizens to the continent, noting that the country would need to be placed on one of two lists regarding a need for visa for travel. Raab, in turn, gave the former French minister a copy of Isaiah Berlin’s The Hedgehog and the Fox. The philosopher’s most popular essay explores the difference between thinkers who view the world through a single defining idea, and those who base their world view on experience.
Asked about the unlikely outcome of UK citizens requiring a visa, an EU official responded that Brussels was leaving the issue open. “I cannot give you the answer today,” he said. It is understood that Raab also insisted to Barnier that the Brexit talks continue throughout the summer, despite the offer of a two-week break from the European commission.
The document points out that even if there is a deal, there would be changes in the way businesses traded. Larger corporations were already turning their backs on the UK as a consequence of the Brexit process, the commission claimed. The meeting came as the EU issued a warning to their member states in a 16-page document of the risks of a no-deal Brexit.
“Untangling a relationship built over more than 40 years will inevitably result in significant changes in the interactions with the United Kingdom at all levels, including economically and legally,” the document says. “Everyone must therefore prepare for the changes that the departure of United Kingdom will inevitably bring ... Many companies are relocating to EU27 or expanding their business in EU27.” The document notes that the impact of a no-deal scenario would be “very real” for citizens, and even leaves open the possibility of a visa requirement for Britons travelling to the continent after Brexit should a deal not be in place..
An EU official added: “We have the impression that since a few weeks a no return point has been considered by a certain number of industrial sectors and that they are taking their decisions. A senior EU diplomat said the “very volatile” political situation in London and the lack of progress in the talks in Brussels on key issues had led many to believe that the risk of a no-deal scenario had increased in recent weeks.
“You have seen some declaration of corporations saying that they are reconsidering investment, they relocating part of their activities, transferring their marketing authorisation for example for pharmaceuticals in the EU. This is ongoing. “Contingency planning for the worst possible outcome is not a sign of mistrust in the negotiations,” the paper adds. “The commission is devoting very significant resources and committing great efforts to achieve an agreement. This remains our goal. However, the outcome of negotiations cannot be predicted.”
“But the big difficulty is to reach out to the millions of small and medium-size companies which have only the experience of working and operating in the EU single market.” The document is particularly stark in its analysis of the impact on economies on both sides of the Channel.
Barnier will discuss Brexit with European affairs ministers from the EU27 on Friday. They will not take a position on Theresa May’s hard-fought compromise plan, agreed among the cabinet at Chequers this month, but will instead focus on the need for progress on the EU-UK withdrawal agreement, and on the broad outlines of a future trade deal. It says: “Transport between the United Kingdom and the European Union would be severely impacted. Customs, sanitary and phytosanitary controls at borders could cause significant delays, eg in road transport, and difficulties for ports.”
“We are not negotiating the white paper,” one senior EU official said. “We are negotiating the withdrawal agreement and we are negotiating a political declaration on future relationship with the UK.” The EU document also covers the movement of British citizens to the continent, noting that the country would need to be placed on one of two lists regarding a need for visa for travel. Asked about the unlikely outcome of UK citizens requiring a visa, an EU official responded that Brussels was leaving the issue open. “I cannot give you the answer today,” he said.
They added: “We are really happy that we have the white paper on the table and we have something we can work with. But it is not more than that. It is not the Ten Commandments.” The document further points out that even if there is a deal, there would be changes in the way businesses traded.
The official said there would be a lot of questions on the white paper, which was “detailed but still unclear to a certain extent”. An EU official said: “We have the impression that since a few weeks a no return point has been considered by a certain number of industrial sectors and that they are taking their decisions.
The EU has been deliberately low-key in its response to the white paper, wary of destabilising Theresa May’s fragile hold on power. “You have seen some declaration of corporations saying that they are reconsidering investment, they relocating part of their activities, transferring their marketing authorisation for example for pharmaceuticals in the EU. This is ongoing.”
Barnier will discuss Brexit with European affairs ministers from the EU27 on Friday. An official said there would be a lot of questions on the white paper, which was “detailed but still unclear to a certain extent”.
Stressing the unpredictability of British politics, the senior EU official said they might as well “read the entrails of animals” to know what is happening.Stressing the unpredictability of British politics, the senior EU official said they might as well “read the entrails of animals” to know what is happening.
“The situation in London is very volatile and I think no one can tell what will happen with the political situation in the UK now. That is why we try to be very calm and prudent not to pour oil into the fire.”
BrexitBrexit
Michel BarnierMichel Barnier
Dominic RaabDominic Raab
European UnionEuropean Union
Foreign policyForeign policy
EuropeEurope
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