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| Brexit broke parliament. Now, only the people can fix it | Brexit broke parliament. Now, only the people can fix it |
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| The hung parliament elected in 2017 has turned into the fragmented parliament of 2018, as last week’s votes on the trade bill show only too well. There are two reasons for this. The first is that there is a gap between the aspirations of the people and those of parliament. The majority of MPs are remainers; most feel required to vote for something to which they are opposed, a situation without precedent in our long constitutional history. The sovereignty of the people is coming to trump the sovereignty of parliament. | The hung parliament elected in 2017 has turned into the fragmented parliament of 2018, as last week’s votes on the trade bill show only too well. There are two reasons for this. The first is that there is a gap between the aspirations of the people and those of parliament. The majority of MPs are remainers; most feel required to vote for something to which they are opposed, a situation without precedent in our long constitutional history. The sovereignty of the people is coming to trump the sovereignty of parliament. |
| Second, it is becoming clear that there is no sure majority for any of the various forms of Brexit on offer. This could lead to Britain crashing out of the European Union without a deal, an outcome hardly anyone wants, and which most believe would be disastrous. | Second, it is becoming clear that there is no sure majority for any of the various forms of Brexit on offer. This could lead to Britain crashing out of the European Union without a deal, an outcome hardly anyone wants, and which most believe would be disastrous. |
| Those Conservatives who seek to remove May do not seem to realise that a successor would face exactly the same dilemmas | Those Conservatives who seek to remove May do not seem to realise that a successor would face exactly the same dilemmas |
| There is no way of overcoming this fragmentation within parliament itself. Those Conservatives who seek to remove Theresa May do not seem to realise that a successor would face exactly the same dilemmas – dilemmas that arise from parliamentary arithmetic, not from the failings of the prime minister. An alternative leader who seeks to avoid the hard graft of moving forward inch by inch on agreed formulas by adopting a more “heroic” stance would intensify the divisions within the Conservative party, rather than resolve them. The unheroic Arthur Balfour held the party together; the “heroic” Robert Peel split the party in 1846; a “heroic” Brexiteer would do the same today. | There is no way of overcoming this fragmentation within parliament itself. Those Conservatives who seek to remove Theresa May do not seem to realise that a successor would face exactly the same dilemmas – dilemmas that arise from parliamentary arithmetic, not from the failings of the prime minister. An alternative leader who seeks to avoid the hard graft of moving forward inch by inch on agreed formulas by adopting a more “heroic” stance would intensify the divisions within the Conservative party, rather than resolve them. The unheroic Arthur Balfour held the party together; the “heroic” Robert Peel split the party in 1846; a “heroic” Brexiteer would do the same today. |
| A national unity government, as proposed by former ministers Anna Soubry and Nicholas Soames, is highly improbable. Such governments come about only during times of war, as in 1940, or when there is fear of economic collapse amid an atmosphere of panic, as in 1931. On both occasions there was broad cross-party agreement on what needed to be done, allowing majority governments to be formed. That sense of agreement is hardly there today – indeed, if it were, the Commons would not be so fragmented and the problem would not arise. In any case, Labour shows no inclination to help the government out of its troubles. It seeks not a national government but a general election. | A national unity government, as proposed by former ministers Anna Soubry and Nicholas Soames, is highly improbable. Such governments come about only during times of war, as in 1940, or when there is fear of economic collapse amid an atmosphere of panic, as in 1931. On both occasions there was broad cross-party agreement on what needed to be done, allowing majority governments to be formed. That sense of agreement is hardly there today – indeed, if it were, the Commons would not be so fragmented and the problem would not arise. In any case, Labour shows no inclination to help the government out of its troubles. It seeks not a national government but a general election. |
| But an election would not solve the problem either. The voters might return a second inconclusive verdict, as they did last year. But even if they did not, it is hardly possible – as Edward Heath found out in the “Who governs Britain?” election of February 1974, and as Theresa May discovered last year – to confine an election to a single topic. The politicians might say, “this is a Brexit election”; the people might respond that it is about the economy or the health service. Nor is it ever possible to assert unequivocally that the people have voted for any specific policy. An election might yield an administration with a mandate to govern, but it could hardly deliver a mandate for any specific form of Brexit. | But an election would not solve the problem either. The voters might return a second inconclusive verdict, as they did last year. But even if they did not, it is hardly possible – as Edward Heath found out in the “Who governs Britain?” election of February 1974, and as Theresa May discovered last year – to confine an election to a single topic. The politicians might say, “this is a Brexit election”; the people might respond that it is about the economy or the health service. Nor is it ever possible to assert unequivocally that the people have voted for any specific policy. An election might yield an administration with a mandate to govern, but it could hardly deliver a mandate for any specific form of Brexit. |
| The truth is that the dilemma, created by the people via the referendum vote of 2016 and again in the general election of 2017, can only be resolved by the people through another referendum. Leavers oppose a further referendum which, they say, disrespects democracy. But a further referendum is the only democratic solution – as the Brexiteers themselves recognised in 2016, when they feared the remainers would triumph. | The truth is that the dilemma, created by the people via the referendum vote of 2016 and again in the general election of 2017, can only be resolved by the people through another referendum. Leavers oppose a further referendum which, they say, disrespects democracy. But a further referendum is the only democratic solution – as the Brexiteers themselves recognised in 2016, when they feared the remainers would triumph. |
| On 16 May 2016, a month before the vote, Nigel Farage told the Daily Mirror that a 52/48 remain victory would be “unfinished business by a long way”. He went on to tell the BBC that “there could be an unstoppable demand for a rerun of the EU referendum if remain wins by a narrow margin”. “Win or lose this battle,” he concluded, “we will win this war.” | On 16 May 2016, a month before the vote, Nigel Farage told the Daily Mirror that a 52/48 remain victory would be “unfinished business by a long way”. He went on to tell the BBC that “there could be an unstoppable demand for a rerun of the EU referendum if remain wins by a narrow margin”. “Win or lose this battle,” he concluded, “we will win this war.” |
| Five years earlier, in October 2011, Jacob Rees-Mogg told the Commons that “we could have two referendums. As it happens it might make more sense to have the second referendum after the renegotiation is completed.” For the Brexiteers, there would be endless referendums until they won. Then, suddenly, the sovereignty of the people would come to an end. | Five years earlier, in October 2011, Jacob Rees-Mogg told the Commons that “we could have two referendums. As it happens it might make more sense to have the second referendum after the renegotiation is completed.” For the Brexiteers, there would be endless referendums until they won. Then, suddenly, the sovereignty of the people would come to an end. |
| But they cannot now deny to their opponents a right they previously claimed for themselves. Perhaps their real fear is that the British people have changed their minds. But if that is so, a referendum would be a recognition of democracy – not a denial of it. | But they cannot now deny to their opponents a right they previously claimed for themselves. Perhaps their real fear is that the British people have changed their minds. But if that is so, a referendum would be a recognition of democracy – not a denial of it. |
| The problem, of course, is to make sure the public can choose between the various options. Yet, as Rees-Mogg declared in 2011, “we can, in our wisdom, work out how to phase a referendum – or series of referendums – if necessary”. Justine Greening, the former education secretary, has proposed a referendum with three options – Brexit according to the deal negotiated by the government, a no-deal Brexit, and remain. But that has been criticised as dividing the Brexit vote, and could fall foul of the so-called Condorcet paradox, where the electorate end up voting for something they didn’t want. | The problem, of course, is to make sure the public can choose between the various options. Yet, as Rees-Mogg declared in 2011, “we can, in our wisdom, work out how to phase a referendum – or series of referendums – if necessary”. Justine Greening, the former education secretary, has proposed a referendum with three options – Brexit according to the deal negotiated by the government, a no-deal Brexit, and remain. But that has been criticised as dividing the Brexit vote, and could fall foul of the so-called Condorcet paradox, where the electorate end up voting for something they didn’t want. |
| It would be better to have a two-stage referendum – as was held in New Zealand in 1992 on electoral reforms – which would avoid the paradox. The first stage would ask voters whether they still wished to leave the European Union. If they did not, no second stage would be necessary. | It would be better to have a two-stage referendum – as was held in New Zealand in 1992 on electoral reforms – which would avoid the paradox. The first stage would ask voters whether they still wished to leave the European Union. If they did not, no second stage would be necessary. |
| But if they did, the second stage – to be held perhaps a week later – would ask whether voters favoured the deal negotiated by the government, or some alternative form proposed by the Brexiteers. The outcome would give parliament a clear indication as to how to proceed. | But if they did, the second stage – to be held perhaps a week later – would ask whether voters favoured the deal negotiated by the government, or some alternative form proposed by the Brexiteers. The outcome would give parliament a clear indication as to how to proceed. |
| Of course, the greatest obstacle to a referendum is Theresa May herself, who has said that she will not call one under any circumstances, even though it could prove a life raft for her party – holding her government together and providing legitimacy for whatever the public decide. No good politician should ever be frightened of changing their mind. “In the course of my life,” Winston Churchill once remarked, “I have often had to eat my words, and I must confess that I have always found it a wholesome diet.” | Of course, the greatest obstacle to a referendum is Theresa May herself, who has said that she will not call one under any circumstances, even though it could prove a life raft for her party – holding her government together and providing legitimacy for whatever the public decide. No good politician should ever be frightened of changing their mind. “In the course of my life,” Winston Churchill once remarked, “I have often had to eat my words, and I must confess that I have always found it a wholesome diet.” |
| Europe has destroyed the last three Conservative prime ministers – Margaret Thatcher, John Major and David Cameron. The issue could now destroy the current one as well. The only prime minister to have unequivocally triumphed over Europe is Harold Wilson who, in 1975, faced with a similarly divided party, called a referendum. | Europe has destroyed the last three Conservative prime ministers – Margaret Thatcher, John Major and David Cameron. The issue could now destroy the current one as well. The only prime minister to have unequivocally triumphed over Europe is Harold Wilson who, in 1975, faced with a similarly divided party, called a referendum. |
| In 2018, the interests of May and of the Conservatives coincide with those of the country. The people must be asked to resolve the dilemma which parliament cannot resolve, so as finally to exorcise the European issue from the body politic. | In 2018, the interests of May and of the Conservatives coincide with those of the country. The people must be asked to resolve the dilemma which parliament cannot resolve, so as finally to exorcise the European issue from the body politic. |
| • Vernon Bogdanor’s book, Brexit, The Constitution and the Future of the United Kingdom, is published in 2019 | |
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