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| Eight months to Brexit: what happens next? | Eight months to Brexit: what happens next? |
| (6 months later) | |
| It’s been 25 months since the referendum in which voters narrowly decided the UK should leave the European Union, and there are just eight months left until Brexit is scheduled to happen. After Theresa May’s Chequers deal and the subsequent departures from the cabinet of Boris Johnson and David Davis, the Conservative party is divided and the Brexit debate has entered its final, critical phase. How did we end up here? And what could happen in the coming months? | It’s been 25 months since the referendum in which voters narrowly decided the UK should leave the European Union, and there are just eight months left until Brexit is scheduled to happen. After Theresa May’s Chequers deal and the subsequent departures from the cabinet of Boris Johnson and David Davis, the Conservative party is divided and the Brexit debate has entered its final, critical phase. How did we end up here? And what could happen in the coming months? |
| The historyHow did we get to this point? | The historyHow did we get to this point? |
| You could start on 1 January 1973, when Ted Heath’s Conservative government took the UK into what was then the common market. Then in June 1975, under Labour, the first EU referendum took place. Asked whether the UK should stay in the bloc, 67% of voters said it should. This was an endorsement by 17.3 million people, only 32,000 fewer than those who voted to depart in 2016. | You could start on 1 January 1973, when Ted Heath’s Conservative government took the UK into what was then the common market. Then in June 1975, under Labour, the first EU referendum took place. Asked whether the UK should stay in the bloc, 67% of voters said it should. This was an endorsement by 17.3 million people, only 32,000 fewer than those who voted to depart in 2016. |
| In the 1990s, as Conservative opposition to ever-growing closeness to what was now the EU festered, John Major faced repeated challenges from what he called the “bastards” – die-hard Eurosceptic MPs who opposed the Maastricht treaty and other integration moves. | In the 1990s, as Conservative opposition to ever-growing closeness to what was now the EU festered, John Major faced repeated challenges from what he called the “bastards” – die-hard Eurosceptic MPs who opposed the Maastricht treaty and other integration moves. |
| After the Tony Blair and Gordon Brown years, during which the main debate about Europe was whether or not the UK should join the euro, from 2010 David Cameron was tormented both by Tory Eurosceptics and a seemingly rampant Ukip, and so in 2013 he proposed an in/out vote. Emboldened by the 2014 Scottish independence vote, he took the Tories into the 2015 election with an EU referendum as a manifesto pledge. | After the Tony Blair and Gordon Brown years, during which the main debate about Europe was whether or not the UK should join the euro, from 2010 David Cameron was tormented both by Tory Eurosceptics and a seemingly rampant Ukip, and so in 2013 he proposed an in/out vote. Emboldened by the 2014 Scottish independence vote, he took the Tories into the 2015 election with an EU referendum as a manifesto pledge. |
| The next few monthsWhat deadlines are looming? | The next few monthsWhat deadlines are looming? |
| There are two key dates in Theresa May’s mind: 18 October, which is the start of the two-day EU summit that is expected to approve a withdrawal agreement; and 29 March 2019, Brexit day. But there are several other milestones along the way. | There are two key dates in Theresa May’s mind: 18 October, which is the start of the two-day EU summit that is expected to approve a withdrawal agreement; and 29 March 2019, Brexit day. But there are several other milestones along the way. |
| In September the government is due to unveil its plans for a post-Brexit immigration policy, one of the most tortuous and controversial elements of the process. Then, at the end of the month, May faces what could be a hugely hostile Conservative party conference. | In September the government is due to unveil its plans for a post-Brexit immigration policy, one of the most tortuous and controversial elements of the process. Then, at the end of the month, May faces what could be a hugely hostile Conservative party conference. |
| Even if a deal is agreed at the October EU summit, May must then spend the following months seeking to push it through the Commons, while the EU must get approval from a supermajority of members – at least 20 of the 27 countries, representing 65% or more of the total EU population. | Even if a deal is agreed at the October EU summit, May must then spend the following months seeking to push it through the Commons, while the EU must get approval from a supermajority of members – at least 20 of the 27 countries, representing 65% or more of the total EU population. |
| If all this is achieved, the work begins on trade talks and the other measures to come into force at the start of 2021, when the transition period is due to end. This would be when any deal on a backstop solution to prevent a hard border in Ireland would – in the UK’s view – expire. | If all this is achieved, the work begins on trade talks and the other measures to come into force at the start of 2021, when the transition period is due to end. This would be when any deal on a backstop solution to prevent a hard border in Ireland would – in the UK’s view – expire. |
| Is the Chequers proposal dead? | Is the Chequers proposal dead? |
| It’s certainly not very popular, possibly even among May’s cabinet, but it has one thing in its favour. No one else currently has an alternative plan that could conceivably pass through parliament and have a chance of being accepted by the EU while not breaking the Tory party apart. As with almost everything connected to Brexit though, all this could change. | It’s certainly not very popular, possibly even among May’s cabinet, but it has one thing in its favour. No one else currently has an alternative plan that could conceivably pass through parliament and have a chance of being accepted by the EU while not breaking the Tory party apart. As with almost everything connected to Brexit though, all this could change. |
| Will May face a leadership challenge, or could there be an election? | Will May face a leadership challenge, or could there be an election? |
| As with her Brexit plan, the one thing keeping May in No 10 is the lack of a plausible alternative. The PM is, at best, grudgingly respected by her fellow Tory MPs for her dogged persistence, and many would like to see her go. Not enough seem committed to forcing an immediate leadership contest though, mindful that installing a committed Brexiter in her place could fracture the party, and that the two most talked-up contenders, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg, are hugely divisive in their own party, let alone the country. As such, May seems a fair bet to see Brexit through. As with the Chequers plan, however, everything could change almost overnight. | As with her Brexit plan, the one thing keeping May in No 10 is the lack of a plausible alternative. The PM is, at best, grudgingly respected by her fellow Tory MPs for her dogged persistence, and many would like to see her go. Not enough seem committed to forcing an immediate leadership contest though, mindful that installing a committed Brexiter in her place could fracture the party, and that the two most talked-up contenders, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg, are hugely divisive in their own party, let alone the country. As such, May seems a fair bet to see Brexit through. As with the Chequers plan, however, everything could change almost overnight. |
| An election is seen as less likely, with MPs painfully aware the public would not relish yet another call on their attention, and it could be seen as self-indulgent given the Brexit deadlines. Conservative MPs in particular will have also noted their party’s recent mini-slump in the polls. | An election is seen as less likely, with MPs painfully aware the public would not relish yet another call on their attention, and it could be seen as self-indulgent given the Brexit deadlines. Conservative MPs in particular will have also noted their party’s recent mini-slump in the polls. |
| What are the various camps up to this summer? | What are the various camps up to this summer? |
| With parliament in recess until September, it would be nice to think the more single-minded MPs from both sides will focus on constituency duties, and on reintroducing themselves to their families and spending a quiet couple of weeks on a beach. | With parliament in recess until September, it would be nice to think the more single-minded MPs from both sides will focus on constituency duties, and on reintroducing themselves to their families and spending a quiet couple of weeks on a beach. |
| In reality, the plotting is unlikely to take a summer break. May cannot realistically expect a leadership challenge without the Commons sitting, but her principal opponents will be gathering their forces before the Tory conference. | In reality, the plotting is unlikely to take a summer break. May cannot realistically expect a leadership challenge without the Commons sitting, but her principal opponents will be gathering their forces before the Tory conference. |
| Similarly, some among the majority of Labour members who wish Jeremy Corbyn would do more to oppose or mitigate Brexit will hope to raise a proper debate on the issue at their conference. This could even include dissent from the Momentum group that back Corbyn. | Similarly, some among the majority of Labour members who wish Jeremy Corbyn would do more to oppose or mitigate Brexit will hope to raise a proper debate on the issue at their conference. This could even include dissent from the Momentum group that back Corbyn. |
| The end pointWhat options are still on the table? | The end pointWhat options are still on the table? |
| Officially, just two. A deal based on May’s Chequers plan, with whatever alterations are imposed during negotiations, or a departure without a deal, whether moving to World Trade Organisation trade terms or some other hastily agreed arrangement. | Officially, just two. A deal based on May’s Chequers plan, with whatever alterations are imposed during negotiations, or a departure without a deal, whether moving to World Trade Organisation trade terms or some other hastily agreed arrangement. |
| Some of May’s MPs advocate other options. Boris Johnson used his first speech since stepping down as foreign secretary to call for a plan based on May’s more hard Brexit-based Mansion House speech, while David Davis’s allies hanker after a Canada-style deal. Given the strict timetable, however, and lack of any details as to how these would work, it seems a big ask. | Some of May’s MPs advocate other options. Boris Johnson used his first speech since stepping down as foreign secretary to call for a plan based on May’s more hard Brexit-based Mansion House speech, while David Davis’s allies hanker after a Canada-style deal. Given the strict timetable, however, and lack of any details as to how these would work, it seems a big ask. |
| What are the forecasts for these options? | What are the forecasts for these options? |
| The only semi-official forecasts, made by government officials and seen by MPs but not published, suggest that whatever Brexit outcome emerges, the UK economy will take something of a hit. | The only semi-official forecasts, made by government officials and seen by MPs but not published, suggest that whatever Brexit outcome emerges, the UK economy will take something of a hit. |
| They suggest that economic growth would be 2% lower over a period of 15 years than would otherwise be the case if there is a deal involving single market membership, 5% lower in the event of a harder Brexit, and 8% lower if there is no deal. The forecast indicates that poorer areas – which were more likely to vote for Brexit – would be hit harder. It predicts growth in the north-east of England would be reduced by anything from 3% to 16%. | They suggest that economic growth would be 2% lower over a period of 15 years than would otherwise be the case if there is a deal involving single market membership, 5% lower in the event of a harder Brexit, and 8% lower if there is no deal. The forecast indicates that poorer areas – which were more likely to vote for Brexit – would be hit harder. It predicts growth in the north-east of England would be reduced by anything from 3% to 16%. |
| Brexiters have dismissed the figures as alarmist, and it is true that it is difficult to extrapolate what might happen given so many variables, but big business groups such as the CBI and Institute of Directors agree that a no-deal Brexit would be seen as the most damaging. | Brexiters have dismissed the figures as alarmist, and it is true that it is difficult to extrapolate what might happen given so many variables, but big business groups such as the CBI and Institute of Directors agree that a no-deal Brexit would be seen as the most damaging. |
| Could there be a second referendum, and what would it ask? | Could there be a second referendum, and what would it ask? |
| What was until fairly recently something of a fringe position, advocated largely by the Liberal Democrats and the remainer edge of the Labour party, has moved slightly more into the mainstream in recent weeks. | What was until fairly recently something of a fringe position, advocated largely by the Liberal Democrats and the remainer edge of the Labour party, has moved slightly more into the mainstream in recent weeks. |
| The former education secretary Justine Greening endorsed the idea this month, saying it was the only way to end the stasis of a gridlocked parliament. Greening also floated a plan for how such a referendum could work. Voters would be presented with three choices – May’s final plan, a no-deal Brexit or staying in the EU – and a second-preference system would ensure one option secured at least 50% of the votes. | The former education secretary Justine Greening endorsed the idea this month, saying it was the only way to end the stasis of a gridlocked parliament. Greening also floated a plan for how such a referendum could work. Voters would be presented with three choices – May’s final plan, a no-deal Brexit or staying in the EU – and a second-preference system would ensure one option secured at least 50% of the votes. |
| The idea seems unlikely though, for now at least, given the government’s intractable opposition, the public’s scepticism and the, at best, ambivalence of the Labour leadership. There is also extremely limited time to make the necessary legal preparations. | The idea seems unlikely though, for now at least, given the government’s intractable opposition, the public’s scepticism and the, at best, ambivalence of the Labour leadership. There is also extremely limited time to make the necessary legal preparations. |
| Could it all be delayed? | Could it all be delayed? |
| Pressured UK negotiators would be advised not to rely on this. Some believe that if the October EU summit fails to reach a deal, an emergency EU gathering before the end of the year could achieve one, but that’s probably as far as the flexibility goes. | Pressured UK negotiators would be advised not to rely on this. Some believe that if the October EU summit fails to reach a deal, an emergency EU gathering before the end of the year could achieve one, but that’s probably as far as the flexibility goes. |
| The one overriding reason is article 50. When this was triggered by May’s government on 29 March 2017, it set in place a formal legal process heading in one direction: the UK’s exit precisely two years later. | The one overriding reason is article 50. When this was triggered by May’s government on 29 March 2017, it set in place a formal legal process heading in one direction: the UK’s exit precisely two years later. |
| Officials in Brussels say that while the article 50 process could in theory be extended, there would be no appetite to do so if it were merely to delay an inevitably disorderly departure. The only way it could conceivably happen, they say, would be because of some fundamental shift in the UK position, for example a new prime minister or a general election. | Officials in Brussels say that while the article 50 process could in theory be extended, there would be no appetite to do so if it were merely to delay an inevitably disorderly departure. The only way it could conceivably happen, they say, would be because of some fundamental shift in the UK position, for example a new prime minister or a general election. |
| When will we know if it’s been worth it? | When will we know if it’s been worth it? |
| Among the many moveable deadlines of Brexit, this is perhaps the most elusive of them all. For all the Brexiters’ pre-referendum talk of sunlit uplands and the easiest trade deals imaginable, even some diehard believers now seem to be arguing that the benefits will be more visible in the long term. | Among the many moveable deadlines of Brexit, this is perhaps the most elusive of them all. For all the Brexiters’ pre-referendum talk of sunlit uplands and the easiest trade deals imaginable, even some diehard believers now seem to be arguing that the benefits will be more visible in the long term. |
| How long term depends on who you ask. In a much-shared recent interview with Channel 4 News, the Brexit cheerleader Jacob Rees-Mogg was challenged on how the success or otherwise of departure could be gauged. He replied that it was “a question of timescale”. Pressed on this, he said: “The overwhelming opportunity for Brexit is over the next 50 years.” | How long term depends on who you ask. In a much-shared recent interview with Channel 4 News, the Brexit cheerleader Jacob Rees-Mogg was challenged on how the success or otherwise of departure could be gauged. He replied that it was “a question of timescale”. Pressed on this, he said: “The overwhelming opportunity for Brexit is over the next 50 years.” |
| • This article was amended on 26 July 2018. Measures would be set to come into force at the start of 2021, not the end of that year as an earlier version said. | • This article was amended on 26 July 2018. Measures would be set to come into force at the start of 2021, not the end of that year as an earlier version said. |
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