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| Turnbull supporters rally in face of Dutton leadership rumblings – politics live | Turnbull supporters rally in face of Dutton leadership rumblings – politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| “What I want is the government to unite and to focus,” Tim Wilson says, like he is not part of the government which has created this situation and allowing it to play out. | |
| Tim Wilson is just thrilled he has a “regular spot on Sky and are obliged to come in for a chat” this morning. He is absolutely loving life. | |
| He is sticking VERY hard to his lines. Complete with hand movements. I’m not suggesting that he has practiced the line “we are focussed on driving down power prices” in the mirror, but I’m not, not saying that. | |
| Fun fact: no prime minister has served an entire election term since John Howard. | |
| So we haven’t had a prime minister serve out a term between elections since 2007. | |
| Kevin Rudd to Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd to Tony Abbott to Malcolm Turnbull to .... | |
| The halls have gone very quiet. VERRRRRRRY quiet. | |
| Which would suggest there are meetings happening - but calm down - it makes sense, given they are just about to announce the new changes to the Neg. | |
| So, will it be enough? | |
| And does it really matter? This whole thing went beyond energy a long, long time ago - the policy is just the stalking horse which has allowed Tony Abbott to weaponise his discontent and anger at what happened to him in 2015. | |
| But there doesn’t seem to be a unified strategy to this at the moment. No one knows what to do, or how they should play it out. | |
| We haven’t reached the stage where Kevin Andrews sees the need to put his hand up for the leadership yet, so there is still some room. | |
| (And if anyone wants to disagree that this has nothing to do with energy policy and everything to do with 2009 and then 2015, here is Andrews in November last year, describing Turnbull as the leader “for the moment”: | |
| “...At the present time, Mr Turnbull is the Prime Minister. | |
| “...He’s the leader, he’s the Prime Minister. I’m simply saying he’s the Prime Minister. But what we have at the moment is a clear frustration on the part of the Australian public that they’re not getting what they want and whoever the leader is, they need to be responding to this.” | |
| We are going to hear about the latest “refinements”, as Christopher Pyne would say, to the national energy guarantee this morning. | |
| Very soon, this morning. | |
| Probably not this, Tim. Probably not this. | |
| I stopped and consulted a sage man while running around the lake this morning ... #WhatWouldMenziesDo? pic.twitter.com/Pdxk14MRFk | |
| Given the speed of Turnbull's capitulation on energy policy, if the PM lasts the week don't rule out Craig Kelly being Energy Minister by the end of it. | |
| You know, stranger things have happened. And I’ll say this, while Craig Kelly is, well, very Craig Kelly, he is one of the few people in the government who is actually across the Neg. | |
| Labor is mostly letting the Liberal party play this out uninterrupted, but Jim Chalmers stopped by doors this morning with this message: | |
| I’ve seen a number of pretty strange things in this place over the years, but the idea that Peter Dutton could be the prime minister of Australia really takes the cake. The answer for the Liberal party is not to change the leader of a divided and dysfunctional government; the answer is to change the government.” | |
| Pressed on leadership speculation, Craig Kelly told ABC radio he supports the prime minister. But he is focused on energy policy – “it is not about personality, it is about policy”, he says. | |
| The prime minister has my support. We’re looking forward to working through through the issues we have on the national energy guarantee and having the debate and making sure we get the policies that will get electricity prices down from the levels they are and down significantly as quickly as they possibly can. | |
| He says he has only spoken to Peter Dutton at lunch to say hello. | He says he has only spoken to Peter Dutton at lunch to say hello. |
| “There is no challenge at the moment,” he says outside the ABC studio. | “There is no challenge at the moment,” he says outside the ABC studio. |
| Then he realises the caveat he just put on that. | Then he realises the caveat he just put on that. |
| “There is no challenge,” he corrects. | “There is no challenge,” he corrects. |
| (He is not wearing the same outfit as Bowers this morning. He’s starting the week in a suit, instead of a red parka for a start.) | |
| Greg Bearup wrote up a profile on Nationals leader Michael McCormack for the Weekend Oz. The point of these pieces is usually to either introduce the electorate to an unknown MP looking to increase their profile, quell a challenge, or send out a warning shot. | Greg Bearup wrote up a profile on Nationals leader Michael McCormack for the Weekend Oz. The point of these pieces is usually to either introduce the electorate to an unknown MP looking to increase their profile, quell a challenge, or send out a warning shot. |
| For McCormack, who hasn’t made much of an impact since taking over the leadership from Barnaby Joyce (and if you need proof of that, go outside and ask someone who the deputy prime minister is) is still struggling to find his feet in front of a bigger spotlight. | For McCormack, who hasn’t made much of an impact since taking over the leadership from Barnaby Joyce (and if you need proof of that, go outside and ask someone who the deputy prime minister is) is still struggling to find his feet in front of a bigger spotlight. |
| But, as Bearup points out in his piece, that is not stopping his detractors from attempting to push against him – or, as he words it, “the dogs are barking”. From his report: | But, as Bearup points out in his piece, that is not stopping his detractors from attempting to push against him – or, as he words it, “the dogs are barking”. From his report: |
| “I don’t think he has ever stood for anything,” says one of his parliamentary colleagues. “I just don’t think he’s got the mettle to do it.” This colleague tells me that when McCormack was parliamentary secretary to the finance minister, he was tasked with renovating The Lodge. “He was shithouse. It was his one job and it was three years late and three times over budget.” One of McCormack’s former staffers tells me he is not across his brief, can’t keep up with his correspondence, and that if he goes head to head with Albanese in the infrastructure portfolio, “Albo will wipe the floor … He is just not across any detail. Michael doesn’t want to do the work. Michael wants to swan around to State of Origin and AFL football matches and not actually do the work. The reality is you have to do the work.” | “I don’t think he has ever stood for anything,” says one of his parliamentary colleagues. “I just don’t think he’s got the mettle to do it.” This colleague tells me that when McCormack was parliamentary secretary to the finance minister, he was tasked with renovating The Lodge. “He was shithouse. It was his one job and it was three years late and three times over budget.” One of McCormack’s former staffers tells me he is not across his brief, can’t keep up with his correspondence, and that if he goes head to head with Albanese in the infrastructure portfolio, “Albo will wipe the floor … He is just not across any detail. Michael doesn’t want to do the work. Michael wants to swan around to State of Origin and AFL football matches and not actually do the work. The reality is you have to do the work.” |
| With all this talk floating around that Peter Dutton will “help save the furniture” in Queensland, I can tell you that Labor types up there are very excited over the prospect of a Dutton government – because it would make it easier to win seats in the south-east, like Brisbane, which is currently held by Trevor Evans. | |
| They also point out that Dutton is struggling to hold on to his own seat of Dickson, just north of Brisbane, and that the spotlight which comes with being prime minister could annoy enough previously ambivalent voters to come out and vote against him. Plus, he wouldn’t have as much time to campaign in his seat because the leader of the party has to be everywhere. | |
| “Queensland is already looking pretty good for us, but this would just be the icing on the cake,” one Labor campaigner just told me. | “Queensland is already looking pretty good for us, but this would just be the icing on the cake,” one Labor campaigner just told me. |
| “I hope they do it. Not only would Victoria be totally gone, it will win us seats we’ve put in the maybe pile, which makes it easier the election after the next.” | |
| Leader of the government in the lower house, Christopher Pyne, has noted that Tony Abbott is “at least going public – he’s not anonymously briefing” against the prime minister, unlike some others. | Leader of the government in the lower house, Christopher Pyne, has noted that Tony Abbott is “at least going public – he’s not anonymously briefing” against the prime minister, unlike some others. |
| Presumably he means conservative backbenchers, because Pyne then added that Peter Dutton was not behind the current campaign against Malcolm Turnbull.He said: | Presumably he means conservative backbenchers, because Pyne then added that Peter Dutton was not behind the current campaign against Malcolm Turnbull.He said: |
| I don’t believe there’ll be a challenge to Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. I believe that the cabinet is 100% behind Malcolm Turnbull, including Peter Dutton. He’s a very valued colleague, a good friend, he’s very competent. I don’t believe he’s doing anything to change the leadership of the party. | I don’t believe there’ll be a challenge to Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. I believe that the cabinet is 100% behind Malcolm Turnbull, including Peter Dutton. He’s a very valued colleague, a good friend, he’s very competent. I don’t believe he’s doing anything to change the leadership of the party. |
| Christopher Pyne also said the prime minister would announce the latest “refinements” to the national energy guarantee later today, which he thinks will make the party room happy. | Christopher Pyne also said the prime minister would announce the latest “refinements” to the national energy guarantee later today, which he thinks will make the party room happy. |
| On Friday, the government floated a proposal that would mean any emissions target would be set through regulation, not legislation, which caused even more upset. On Sunday, in a social media message, Malcolm Turnbull appeared to walk that back, and was again talking about a form of legislation. | On Friday, the government floated a proposal that would mean any emissions target would be set through regulation, not legislation, which caused even more upset. On Sunday, in a social media message, Malcolm Turnbull appeared to walk that back, and was again talking about a form of legislation. |
| On the polls though, Pyne, as always, was finding his silver lining: | On the polls though, Pyne, as always, was finding his silver lining: |
| One of outcomes from disunity is poor polling figures. And the people who are trying to create disunity, that’s what they want and then they try to feed on that poll and say – see, we told you so. The more interesting thing about the poll is the 66% of Coalition voters who support the national energy guarantee and want action on climate change and the national energy guarantee is a popular policy in the public and, of course, has near-unanimous support with industry and we will make refinements to that today to bring a big stick to energy companies to ensure that prices are being forced down because prices is the number one issue when it comes to energy in Australia and we are focused on that. | One of outcomes from disunity is poor polling figures. And the people who are trying to create disunity, that’s what they want and then they try to feed on that poll and say – see, we told you so. The more interesting thing about the poll is the 66% of Coalition voters who support the national energy guarantee and want action on climate change and the national energy guarantee is a popular policy in the public and, of course, has near-unanimous support with industry and we will make refinements to that today to bring a big stick to energy companies to ensure that prices are being forced down because prices is the number one issue when it comes to energy in Australia and we are focused on that. |
| Christopher Pyne is at least being upfront that the party room is not united – naming Tony Abbott as the chief detractor during a chat with Fran Kelly on RN this morning: | Christopher Pyne is at least being upfront that the party room is not united – naming Tony Abbott as the chief detractor during a chat with Fran Kelly on RN this morning: |
| Tony Abbott, at least, to his credit, doesn’t talk behind closed doors to the media. He comes out and says it in the press. So what he says doesn’t surprise me. He has been quite negative about some of the aspects of the government and the prime minister for some time. And at least he doesn’t do so anonymously. But I don’t agree with your assessment that Peter Dutton is preparing to challenge MalcolmTurnbull. I don’t agree with that at all. | Tony Abbott, at least, to his credit, doesn’t talk behind closed doors to the media. He comes out and says it in the press. So what he says doesn’t surprise me. He has been quite negative about some of the aspects of the government and the prime minister for some time. And at least he doesn’t do so anonymously. But I don’t agree with your assessment that Peter Dutton is preparing to challenge MalcolmTurnbull. I don’t agree with that at all. |
| Education minister Simon Birmingham has been out defending his leader after a dive in the Ipsos poll and leadership speculation that conservatives have approached Peter Dutton to challenge the prime minister.Birmingham told Sky News that cabinet and Turnbull government ministers are focused on lowering power prices.He said: “I would urge everybody else – the handful of individuals who cause trouble – to think about the consequence of continuing to cause that trouble. | Education minister Simon Birmingham has been out defending his leader after a dive in the Ipsos poll and leadership speculation that conservatives have approached Peter Dutton to challenge the prime minister.Birmingham told Sky News that cabinet and Turnbull government ministers are focused on lowering power prices.He said: “I would urge everybody else – the handful of individuals who cause trouble – to think about the consequence of continuing to cause that trouble. |
| I sat in Coalition party room last week – and I heard overwhelming support for the policies that we’re putting forward. It’s literally only a handful of individuals who decided to try to derail those policies.” | I sat in Coalition party room last week – and I heard overwhelming support for the policies that we’re putting forward. It’s literally only a handful of individuals who decided to try to derail those policies.” |
| Asked if the majority support Malcolm Turnbull to continue as leader, Birmingham said “yes” and repeated his observation that the party room had supported the national energy guarantee. That was before Turnbull modified the policy to put emissions targets in regulation not legislation. A week is a long time in politics. | Asked if the majority support Malcolm Turnbull to continue as leader, Birmingham said “yes” and repeated his observation that the party room had supported the national energy guarantee. That was before Turnbull modified the policy to put emissions targets in regulation not legislation. A week is a long time in politics. |
| Well, that escalated quickly. | Well, that escalated quickly. |
| The rumblings around Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership turned into a roar over the weekend, as the prime minister’s detractors – Tony Abbott chief among them – used the energy debate as a proxy for other grievances, namely Abbott losing the leadership in 2015. | The rumblings around Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership turned into a roar over the weekend, as the prime minister’s detractors – Tony Abbott chief among them – used the energy debate as a proxy for other grievances, namely Abbott losing the leadership in 2015. |
| The latest Ipsos poll, published by Fairfax, has Labor ahead 55 to 45, which is outside the margin of error. The headlines in today’s newspapers are absolutely dire and a dinner last night with the cabinet does not seem to have done much to quell the tensions. | The latest Ipsos poll, published by Fairfax, has Labor ahead 55 to 45, which is outside the margin of error. The headlines in today’s newspapers are absolutely dire and a dinner last night with the cabinet does not seem to have done much to quell the tensions. |
| Especially since, as the Australian reports, Abbott told a group of Young Liberals in Tasmania that he was quite looking forward to working in a “Dutton government”. | Especially since, as the Australian reports, Abbott told a group of Young Liberals in Tasmania that he was quite looking forward to working in a “Dutton government”. |
| Dutton tweeted the prime minister had his support on the weekend. Since then, he has been pressed by conservative colleagues to challenge. It doesn’t look like he has the numbers. But does Turnbull have the numbers without Dutton? | Dutton tweeted the prime minister had his support on the weekend. Since then, he has been pressed by conservative colleagues to challenge. It doesn’t look like he has the numbers. But does Turnbull have the numbers without Dutton? |
| It seems like a lifetime ago Turnbull held a press conference to announce he had his own party’s support for his energy policy. | It seems like a lifetime ago Turnbull held a press conference to announce he had his own party’s support for his energy policy. |
| Meanwhile, Nationals MPs have been briefing against Michael McCormack – mostly the ones who were never happy with the switch from Barnaby Joyce in the first place. So things are going GREAT. | Meanwhile, Nationals MPs have been briefing against Michael McCormack – mostly the ones who were never happy with the switch from Barnaby Joyce in the first place. So things are going GREAT. |
| I think we have all shown time and time again that there is nothing the electorate loves more from its leadership than leadership challenges. | I think we have all shown time and time again that there is nothing the electorate loves more from its leadership than leadership challenges. |
| I mean, it’s been almost exactly three years since the last time we switched up sitting prime ministers – we’re running a little behind schedule. | I mean, it’s been almost exactly three years since the last time we switched up sitting prime ministers – we’re running a little behind schedule. |
| And among all of that, we still have some policy – the latest incarnation of the national energy guarantee (Neg) is to be announced, which is what that cabinet dinner and meeting was for overnight, while the government is also prepared to let its company tax cuts be defeated in the Senate. | And among all of that, we still have some policy – the latest incarnation of the national energy guarantee (Neg) is to be announced, which is what that cabinet dinner and meeting was for overnight, while the government is also prepared to let its company tax cuts be defeated in the Senate. |
| Mike Bowers is out and about – there are quite a few ministers who have been up since dawn pressing their side of the tensions. We’ll bring you that. The Guardian brains trust has been up since before the crack of dawn keeping abreast of all the developments. | Mike Bowers is out and about – there are quite a few ministers who have been up since dawn pressing their side of the tensions. We’ll bring you that. The Guardian brains trust has been up since before the crack of dawn keeping abreast of all the developments. |
| So grab your coffee or whatever it is you need to get you through this. Maybe a cup of Bovril? | So grab your coffee or whatever it is you need to get you through this. Maybe a cup of Bovril? |
| Let’s get into it. | Let’s get into it. |