This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/20/opinion/midterms-democrats-republicans-blue-wave.html
The article has changed 3 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 0 | Version 1 |
|---|---|
| Why Even a Blue Wave Could Have Limited Gains | Why Even a Blue Wave Could Have Limited Gains |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| The proper way to view the 2018 midterms might not be as one event, but as two very different elections playing out at once. It’s almost Mars vs. Venus: The Senate hinges on red, rural states where Democrats are on defense. But the House will be decided by swing, suburban seats where Republicans are highly vulnerable. | The proper way to view the 2018 midterms might not be as one event, but as two very different elections playing out at once. It’s almost Mars vs. Venus: The Senate hinges on red, rural states where Democrats are on defense. But the House will be decided by swing, suburban seats where Republicans are highly vulnerable. |
| These radically different maps could produce dramatically divergent results — and make Congress even more toxic and adversarial in 2019. | These radically different maps could produce dramatically divergent results — and make Congress even more toxic and adversarial in 2019. |
| It's hard to believe, but true: If every state’s and district’s election results on Nov. 6 were a uniform eight-point swing in the Democrats’ direction from the 2016 presidential result, Democrats would gain 44 House seats — almost twice the 23 they need to control the chamber. But with that same eight-point swing, the party would lose four Senate seats, leaving them six seats short of a majority. | It's hard to believe, but true: If every state’s and district’s election results on Nov. 6 were a uniform eight-point swing in the Democrats’ direction from the 2016 presidential result, Democrats would gain 44 House seats — almost twice the 23 they need to control the chamber. But with that same eight-point swing, the party would lose four Senate seats, leaving them six seats short of a majority. |
| A bifurcation that extreme is highly unlikely, because a handful of incumbents are personally popular enough to defy their constituents’ normal partisan preferences. For example, Senator Jon Tester, Democrat of Montana, and Representative John Katko, Republican of New York’s 24th District, an upstate area around Syracuse, have cultivated strong, independent brands: In Mr. Tester’s case, as a farmer who butchers his own meat; in Mr. Katko’s case, as a tough-on-gangs prosecutor. The Cook Political Report rates both of them as favorites for re-election. | A bifurcation that extreme is highly unlikely, because a handful of incumbents are personally popular enough to defy their constituents’ normal partisan preferences. For example, Senator Jon Tester, Democrat of Montana, and Representative John Katko, Republican of New York’s 24th District, an upstate area around Syracuse, have cultivated strong, independent brands: In Mr. Tester’s case, as a farmer who butchers his own meat; in Mr. Katko’s case, as a tough-on-gangs prosecutor. The Cook Political Report rates both of them as favorites for re-election. |
| But in an era characterized by declining rates of split-ticket voting and an enormous, growing urban vs. rural divide (by my math, in 2016, Donald Trump carried 76 percent of counties with a Cracker Barrel but 22 percent of counties with a Whole Foods Market), holdouts like Mr. Tester and Mr. Katko could be more the exception than the rule. | But in an era characterized by declining rates of split-ticket voting and an enormous, growing urban vs. rural divide (by my math, in 2016, Donald Trump carried 76 percent of counties with a Cracker Barrel but 22 percent of counties with a Whole Foods Market), holdouts like Mr. Tester and Mr. Katko could be more the exception than the rule. |
| This fall, Democrats are defending 26 Senate seats, with Bernie Sanders and Angus King (more than half of their caucus), including five seats that voted for President Trump by 19 points or more. Republicans are defending only nine seats (fewer than a fifth of their caucus); all but one are states Mr. Trump carried. | This fall, Democrats are defending 26 Senate seats, with Bernie Sanders and Angus King (more than half of their caucus), including five seats that voted for President Trump by 19 points or more. Republicans are defending only nine seats (fewer than a fifth of their caucus); all but one are states Mr. Trump carried. |
| But in the House, where all 435 seats are up for election, Republicans are much more exposed: They must defend 25 districts Hillary Clinton carried, whereas Democrats must defend only 13 seats Mr. Trump won. | But in the House, where all 435 seats are up for election, Republicans are much more exposed: They must defend 25 districts Hillary Clinton carried, whereas Democrats must defend only 13 seats Mr. Trump won. |
| In my time covering races professionally, I’ve never observed this little overlap between the battlegrounds of high-stakes Senate and House races. Of the 64 most competitive House races, only 14 are in states with highly competitive Senate races. | |
| These are two truly different universes: The median competitive Senate seat gave Mr. Trump 56 percent in 2016, has a population density of 88 people per square mile and falls below the national average in educational attainment and income. But the median competitive House district gave Mr. Trump 49 percent of the vote, has a population density of 375 people per square mile and ranks above the national average in college graduates and income. | These are two truly different universes: The median competitive Senate seat gave Mr. Trump 56 percent in 2016, has a population density of 88 people per square mile and falls below the national average in educational attainment and income. But the median competitive House district gave Mr. Trump 49 percent of the vote, has a population density of 375 people per square mile and ranks above the national average in college graduates and income. |
| Even if Democrats have a stellar year nationally, Democratic Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Joe Donnelly of Indiana could still fall short of re-election in states where the president is still popular. | Even if Democrats have a stellar year nationally, Democratic Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Joe Donnelly of Indiana could still fall short of re-election in states where the president is still popular. |
| But the Republicans’ tenuous grip on the House is exposing the limits of gerrymandering. Several seats Republican mapmakers drew to be “safe” at the beginning of the decade, including districts outside Atlanta, Detroit, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City and Washington, are suddenly under stress from the combination of college-educated whites fleeing the new, Trump-led G.O.P. and the potential for a Democratic wave. | But the Republicans’ tenuous grip on the House is exposing the limits of gerrymandering. Several seats Republican mapmakers drew to be “safe” at the beginning of the decade, including districts outside Atlanta, Detroit, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City and Washington, are suddenly under stress from the combination of college-educated whites fleeing the new, Trump-led G.O.P. and the potential for a Democratic wave. |
| Much as 2016 produced an anomalous split between the popular vote and the Electoral College, 2018 could produce a split decision between the House and Senate. That would allow both parties to claim a midterm mandate — and reinforce their stubbornness. | Much as 2016 produced an anomalous split between the popular vote and the Electoral College, 2018 could produce a split decision between the House and Senate. That would allow both parties to claim a midterm mandate — and reinforce their stubbornness. |
| Just imagine a Democratic House majority with subpoena power to investigate every office of the Trump administration serving alongside a Republican Senate majority at the ready to confirm all of the president’s judicial and cabinet appointments. Moreover, consider that the likeliest members of both parties to be ousted in 2018 are moderates who have the most incentive to work across the aisle. That would make it even more difficult to get much done in 2019. | Just imagine a Democratic House majority with subpoena power to investigate every office of the Trump administration serving alongside a Republican Senate majority at the ready to confirm all of the president’s judicial and cabinet appointments. Moreover, consider that the likeliest members of both parties to be ousted in 2018 are moderates who have the most incentive to work across the aisle. That would make it even more difficult to get much done in 2019. |
| The long-term danger: The two parties could become accountable to two almost entirely different sets of voters with boiling contempt for one another’s politics and little understanding of one another’s way of life. And of the two chambers, the Senate is the more unrepresentative. | The long-term danger: The two parties could become accountable to two almost entirely different sets of voters with boiling contempt for one another’s politics and little understanding of one another’s way of life. And of the two chambers, the Senate is the more unrepresentative. |
| Whereas most House seats have roughly the same number of constituents, a majority of the Senate now represents just 18 percent of the nation’s population. And this fall, the Senate will come down to seats that are much whiter, more rural and pro-Trump than the nation as a whole. In effect, geography could again be Mr. Trump’s greatest protector: After all, the Senate — not the House — would have the final say on any impeachment proceedings. | Whereas most House seats have roughly the same number of constituents, a majority of the Senate now represents just 18 percent of the nation’s population. And this fall, the Senate will come down to seats that are much whiter, more rural and pro-Trump than the nation as a whole. In effect, geography could again be Mr. Trump’s greatest protector: After all, the Senate — not the House — would have the final say on any impeachment proceedings. |
| David Wasserman (@Redistrict) is the House editor at The Cook Political Report. | David Wasserman (@Redistrict) is the House editor at The Cook Political Report. |
| Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook and Twitter (@NYTopinion), and sign up for the Opinion Today newsletter. | Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook and Twitter (@NYTopinion), and sign up for the Opinion Today newsletter. |