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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/10/lib-dems-momentum-plan-failed-opportunity-vince-cable
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| The Lib Dems’ ‘momentum’ plan looks like another failed opportunity | The Lib Dems’ ‘momentum’ plan looks like another failed opportunity |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| How on earth did they mess this one up? This will go on the Lib Dems’ gravestone when they die – an event which is, let’s be honest, not beyond the realms of possibility. Because unlike their large rivals who have spent the past two years failing upwards, or at least onwards, the Lib Dems cannot afford to mess up. When they make a mistake, it sticks. They only fail downwards. | How on earth did they mess this one up? This will go on the Lib Dems’ gravestone when they die – an event which is, let’s be honest, not beyond the realms of possibility. Because unlike their large rivals who have spent the past two years failing upwards, or at least onwards, the Lib Dems cannot afford to mess up. When they make a mistake, it sticks. They only fail downwards. |
| This has been their story for some time. They are hopeless, like all parties at the moment: only with them it actually matters. When Nick Clegg messed up his party’s opportunity in government, he toxified it for years – it is possibly still toxified. (Last year, while sounding out possible voters in the run-up to the general election, a Lib Dem MP hopeful told me anyone who mentioned tuition fees on the doorstep was immediately marked as a “no”, whatever their voting history.) | This has been their story for some time. They are hopeless, like all parties at the moment: only with them it actually matters. When Nick Clegg messed up his party’s opportunity in government, he toxified it for years – it is possibly still toxified. (Last year, while sounding out possible voters in the run-up to the general election, a Lib Dem MP hopeful told me anyone who mentioned tuition fees on the doorstep was immediately marked as a “no”, whatever their voting history.) |
| Those 2017 elections were another opportunity, but they messed them up, too. They did not seize the chance to represent the 16 million remain voters abandoned by the two main parties (Tony Blair, remember, achieved his landslide with 13.5m votes, Cameron won in 2015 with 11.3m), which could have gained them unexpected victories all over the map. Instead, they took refuge in their old battlegrounds, targeting leave-voting constituencies in the south-west, and in the process watering down their message on Brexit. Voters almost wiped the party off the map altogether and the Lib Dems have not regained much political ground since. | Those 2017 elections were another opportunity, but they messed them up, too. They did not seize the chance to represent the 16 million remain voters abandoned by the two main parties (Tony Blair, remember, achieved his landslide with 13.5m votes, Cameron won in 2015 with 11.3m), which could have gained them unexpected victories all over the map. Instead, they took refuge in their old battlegrounds, targeting leave-voting constituencies in the south-west, and in the process watering down their message on Brexit. Voters almost wiped the party off the map altogether and the Lib Dems have not regained much political ground since. |
| They have an opportunity now. There is a great deal of anti-Brexit feeling in the country (some 100 constituencies have switched from leave to remain since the referendum), and support is building for a “People’s Vote” on the final deal. In August a YouGov poll found 45% want such a vote, while 35% do not. On Saturday, another YouGov poll showed a startling two-to-one backing for a People’s Vote among members of Britain’s three biggest trade unions. | They have an opportunity now. There is a great deal of anti-Brexit feeling in the country (some 100 constituencies have switched from leave to remain since the referendum), and support is building for a “People’s Vote” on the final deal. In August a YouGov poll found 45% want such a vote, while 35% do not. On Saturday, another YouGov poll showed a startling two-to-one backing for a People’s Vote among members of Britain’s three biggest trade unions. |
| There is also evidence that a robustly anti-Brexit party could be carried upwards. Two weeks ago, a poll commissioned by Best for Britain and Hope not Hate showed Labour’s support would improve dramatically should it strongly oppose Brexit. At present, the Lib Dems are the most prominent party to do so. | |
| In this context, part of Vince Cable’s plan sounds promising. He wants to build a “momentum of moderates” by allowing anyone to join the party for free. Members would then be able to vote in a leader of their choice, who would no longer have to be an MP. Some have ridiculed the idea, dubbing it “slowmentum”, but this sort of thing has worked elsewhere. In Canada, it helped Justin Trudeau to power; in France, it did the same for Emmanuel Macron. One can imagine a pro-People’s Vote movement catching fire in Britain in the lead-up to the Brexit deal – finally, a home for those troubled by the doom-laden predictions, those panicked as their companies falter, those who felt cheated by the lies of the leave campaign. Here would be real hope that all this could be changed. Here would be something they could do to stop it all. | In this context, part of Vince Cable’s plan sounds promising. He wants to build a “momentum of moderates” by allowing anyone to join the party for free. Members would then be able to vote in a leader of their choice, who would no longer have to be an MP. Some have ridiculed the idea, dubbing it “slowmentum”, but this sort of thing has worked elsewhere. In Canada, it helped Justin Trudeau to power; in France, it did the same for Emmanuel Macron. One can imagine a pro-People’s Vote movement catching fire in Britain in the lead-up to the Brexit deal – finally, a home for those troubled by the doom-laden predictions, those panicked as their companies falter, those who felt cheated by the lies of the leave campaign. Here would be real hope that all this could be changed. Here would be something they could do to stop it all. |
| But there’s a problem. The Lib Dems will not recognise that their only key to attracting all these young firebrands to their party is their pro-remain position. Every public appearance should be an opportunity to broadcast anti-Brexit messages. But they don’t get it. This was evident, even, in Cable’s speech. He droned on about climate change, the “ageing population” and “stagnant productivity”: all issues, he felt, that would interest his audience more than the “wall-to-wall Brexit” debate. In fact he didn’t mention his party’s stance on Brexit until halfway through the speech, and even then, only in passing. | But there’s a problem. The Lib Dems will not recognise that their only key to attracting all these young firebrands to their party is their pro-remain position. Every public appearance should be an opportunity to broadcast anti-Brexit messages. But they don’t get it. This was evident, even, in Cable’s speech. He droned on about climate change, the “ageing population” and “stagnant productivity”: all issues, he felt, that would interest his audience more than the “wall-to-wall Brexit” debate. In fact he didn’t mention his party’s stance on Brexit until halfway through the speech, and even then, only in passing. |
| And there’s an even larger stumbling block in front of the plan: Cable himself. He plans to leave the party only when Brexit is “resolved”. Too late! The movement cannot start in earnest until members can vote in a charismatic leader they believe in. Cable, having shot himself in the foot by announcing his departure, cannot be that person. And once Britain has left the EU, the movement will have lost its purpose. | And there’s an even larger stumbling block in front of the plan: Cable himself. He plans to leave the party only when Brexit is “resolved”. Too late! The movement cannot start in earnest until members can vote in a charismatic leader they believe in. Cable, having shot himself in the foot by announcing his departure, cannot be that person. And once Britain has left the EU, the movement will have lost its purpose. |
| The chance is still there. There is time, still, to “learn the lessons”, before having to trot out that phrase for the cameras on the morning after the next election. But they must grab it now. | The chance is still there. There is time, still, to “learn the lessons”, before having to trot out that phrase for the cameras on the morning after the next election. But they must grab it now. |
| • Martha Gill is a freelance political journalist and former lobby correspondent | • Martha Gill is a freelance political journalist and former lobby correspondent |
| Liberal Democrats | Liberal Democrats |
| Opinion | Opinion |
| Momentum | Momentum |
| Vince Cable | Vince Cable |
| Brexit | Brexit |
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