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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/11/the-guardian-view-on-idlib-nowhere-left-to-go
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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
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| The Guardian view on Idlib: nowhere left to go | The Guardian view on Idlib: nowhere left to go |
| (2 months later) | |
| Fresh disaster is looming in Syria. It is unlikely to stay there. The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, had warned that Idlib, the last hold-out against Bashar al-Assad, could become a lake of blood. Now he writes that Syrian civilians are not the only ones who will pay the price; a regime assault would create serious risks for his country, Europe and beyond. | Fresh disaster is looming in Syria. It is unlikely to stay there. The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, had warned that Idlib, the last hold-out against Bashar al-Assad, could become a lake of blood. Now he writes that Syrian civilians are not the only ones who will pay the price; a regime assault would create serious risks for his country, Europe and beyond. |
| Idlib is home to 3.5 million people, half of whom have fled there from recaptured cities. They are already in dire straits, many in overcrowded camps lacking even basic amenities. And they know exactly what they face; families are improvising gas masks from children’s party cups with cotton and charcoal, knowing how inadequate such preparations are. They have nowhere left to go. | Idlib is home to 3.5 million people, half of whom have fled there from recaptured cities. They are already in dire straits, many in overcrowded camps lacking even basic amenities. And they know exactly what they face; families are improvising gas masks from children’s party cups with cotton and charcoal, knowing how inadequate such preparations are. They have nowhere left to go. |
| Bombing raids have already displaced 30,000 people within the enclave; estimates suggest there could soon be 700,000 on the move. The UN says that this could be the century’s worst humanitarian crisis so far. Russia and Iran, Mr Assad’s backers, dismissed Mr Erdoğan’s attempts to broker a ceasefire. But the fall of Idlib will not mean an end to seven years of conflict; merely a new phase of instability, chaos and suffering. | Bombing raids have already displaced 30,000 people within the enclave; estimates suggest there could soon be 700,000 on the move. The UN says that this could be the century’s worst humanitarian crisis so far. Russia and Iran, Mr Assad’s backers, dismissed Mr Erdoğan’s attempts to broker a ceasefire. But the fall of Idlib will not mean an end to seven years of conflict; merely a new phase of instability, chaos and suffering. |
| The death toll in Syria is estimated at 600,000 people. Ten times more – half the population – have fled. The chilling Russian description of Idlib as “this festering abscess that needs to be liquidated” gives every indication of how an assault will be conducted. It is nonsense to present this, as Damascus and Moscow do, as an anti-terrorist campaign. Committed jihadist fighters are a small proportion of the population, probably fewer than 10,000. Previous attacks on rebel-held areas have shown not merely total disregard for civilians, but deliberate targeting of them. The UN says four medical facilities around the province have been bombed in the last week; one was on a deconfliction list, meaning that the regime and Russia had been given its coordinates. | The death toll in Syria is estimated at 600,000 people. Ten times more – half the population – have fled. The chilling Russian description of Idlib as “this festering abscess that needs to be liquidated” gives every indication of how an assault will be conducted. It is nonsense to present this, as Damascus and Moscow do, as an anti-terrorist campaign. Committed jihadist fighters are a small proportion of the population, probably fewer than 10,000. Previous attacks on rebel-held areas have shown not merely total disregard for civilians, but deliberate targeting of them. The UN says four medical facilities around the province have been bombed in the last week; one was on a deconfliction list, meaning that the regime and Russia had been given its coordinates. |
| Donald Trump’s admonishment to Mr Assad and his supporters – “Don’t let that happen!” – was swiftly followed by Russian airstrikes on western Idlib. However necessary, the warning that the US, Britain and France will have a “much stronger response” to another chemical attack by the regime sounded, in the current context, worryingly close to tacit acceptance of other atrocities. Proposals for “humanitarian corridors” towards regime areas are an absurdity to civilians who saw what the regime did even before it felt this sense of utter impunity. | Donald Trump’s admonishment to Mr Assad and his supporters – “Don’t let that happen!” – was swiftly followed by Russian airstrikes on western Idlib. However necessary, the warning that the US, Britain and France will have a “much stronger response” to another chemical attack by the regime sounded, in the current context, worryingly close to tacit acceptance of other atrocities. Proposals for “humanitarian corridors” towards regime areas are an absurdity to civilians who saw what the regime did even before it felt this sense of utter impunity. |
| The border with Turkey is closed; it has already taken 3.7 million refugees, more than the rest of Europe. So the only plausible route out of Idlib is to the Turkish-controlled swathe of northern Syria. It will be hard for Mr Erdoğan to maintain that he is the protector of innocent Syrians if he denies them shelter in what is, after all, Syria. But he will need support to meet the vast humanitarian need. | The border with Turkey is closed; it has already taken 3.7 million refugees, more than the rest of Europe. So the only plausible route out of Idlib is to the Turkish-controlled swathe of northern Syria. It will be hard for Mr Erdoğan to maintain that he is the protector of innocent Syrians if he denies them shelter in what is, after all, Syria. But he will need support to meet the vast humanitarian need. |
| Whatever happens, we will see more repression, more trauma, more geopolitical struggle. Idlib is where everyone’s interests converge; but far from aligning, in many cases they clash. Mr Assad’s backers have agendas. Only a husk of a state remains in this shattered land. Hatred, trauma and simple material need will fuel the instability; the security implications for the region and for Europe are evident, as Mr Erdoğan implied. While the US-backed coalition fighting Islamic State says the attack on its last redoubt in Syria has begun, the loss of its “caliphate” has altered rather than eradicated its threat. But it should not take self-interest to make us pay attention when tragedy is waiting to happen. | Whatever happens, we will see more repression, more trauma, more geopolitical struggle. Idlib is where everyone’s interests converge; but far from aligning, in many cases they clash. Mr Assad’s backers have agendas. Only a husk of a state remains in this shattered land. Hatred, trauma and simple material need will fuel the instability; the security implications for the region and for Europe are evident, as Mr Erdoğan implied. While the US-backed coalition fighting Islamic State says the attack on its last redoubt in Syria has begun, the loss of its “caliphate” has altered rather than eradicated its threat. But it should not take self-interest to make us pay attention when tragedy is waiting to happen. |
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