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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/13/no-deal-notices-hard-brexiteers-brexit-secretary-dominic-raab-chequers
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| The latest no-deal notices could finally crush the hard Brexiteers | The latest no-deal notices could finally crush the hard Brexiteers |
| (4 days later) | |
| “When push comes to shove, there will be the choice between the deal that I’m confident we can strike with the EU and the no-deal scenario”. This was how a confident Dominic Raab attempted to “focus” Tory ultra-Brexiteers’ minds this morning in an appearance on the Today programme. Ahead of the release of the government’s second batch of no-deal notices, the Brexit secretary reminded everyone – should they have forgotten – what his preferred choice is: “It would be by far the optimum outcome to have a negotiated deal”. | “When push comes to shove, there will be the choice between the deal that I’m confident we can strike with the EU and the no-deal scenario”. This was how a confident Dominic Raab attempted to “focus” Tory ultra-Brexiteers’ minds this morning in an appearance on the Today programme. Ahead of the release of the government’s second batch of no-deal notices, the Brexit secretary reminded everyone – should they have forgotten – what his preferred choice is: “It would be by far the optimum outcome to have a negotiated deal”. |
| Not everyone agrees. With Tory Brexiteers desperate to chuck Chequers and keen to talk up the prospects of a World Trade Brexit (formerly known as no deal), these technical notices have come to be regarded with a heavy dose of suspicion. Are they helpful information for planning or actually part of a Downing Street effort to bounce the country into accepting Chequers? | Not everyone agrees. With Tory Brexiteers desperate to chuck Chequers and keen to talk up the prospects of a World Trade Brexit (formerly known as no deal), these technical notices have come to be regarded with a heavy dose of suspicion. Are they helpful information for planning or actually part of a Downing Street effort to bounce the country into accepting Chequers? |
| There’s plenty in today’s offering to make a no-deal Brexit seem more land of extra paperwork than land of milk and honey. Drivers could have to get two different international driving permits if they want to drive in European countries; there would be no automatic legal basis for data transfers; and then there’s the news that the UK would get less warning about space debris crashing to Earth. | There’s plenty in today’s offering to make a no-deal Brexit seem more land of extra paperwork than land of milk and honey. Drivers could have to get two different international driving permits if they want to drive in European countries; there would be no automatic legal basis for data transfers; and then there’s the news that the UK would get less warning about space debris crashing to Earth. |
| However, the papers are far from catastrophic in their content. For a change, the government could even be described as being on the front foot. The Brexit secretary managed to dodge one negative story by agreeing with phone companies in advance that free data roaming will continue even if the UK leaves the EU without a deal. There’s also the promise of blue passports from 2019 onwards – though for some that may be the worst news in the papers. | However, the papers are far from catastrophic in their content. For a change, the government could even be described as being on the front foot. The Brexit secretary managed to dodge one negative story by agreeing with phone companies in advance that free data roaming will continue even if the UK leaves the EU without a deal. There’s also the promise of blue passports from 2019 onwards – though for some that may be the worst news in the papers. |
| It follows that today’s batch of warnings aren’t dramatic enough to move the dial either way in the Conservative party’s current Brexit debate. They are neutral enough in tone to avoid triggering a fresh bout of Tory civil war and prompt cries of “project fear”. Conversely, there are enough potential complications that those sceptical of leaving without a deal are unlikely to be converted. | It follows that today’s batch of warnings aren’t dramatic enough to move the dial either way in the Conservative party’s current Brexit debate. They are neutral enough in tone to avoid triggering a fresh bout of Tory civil war and prompt cries of “project fear”. Conversely, there are enough potential complications that those sceptical of leaving without a deal are unlikely to be converted. |
| However, something significant has changed this week in the Tories’ Brexit battle – and that’s the mood in government. Despite reports of a Eurosceptic coup against the prime minister, Theresa May has had a rather good few days. Raab’s confident tone on the airwaves this morning belies the fact that ministers think the wind is turning in their favour on Chequers – and it’s all thanks to the Brexiteers. This was meant to be the week that the European Research Group finally set out their Brexit plan to rival the prime minister’s. That hasn’t happened. Creative differences over the 140-page document – which included plans to build a “Star Wars”-style missile shield to protect Britain from nuclear attack and an “expeditionary force” to defend the Falklands – meant that the plan had to be scrapped. | However, something significant has changed this week in the Tories’ Brexit battle – and that’s the mood in government. Despite reports of a Eurosceptic coup against the prime minister, Theresa May has had a rather good few days. Raab’s confident tone on the airwaves this morning belies the fact that ministers think the wind is turning in their favour on Chequers – and it’s all thanks to the Brexiteers. This was meant to be the week that the European Research Group finally set out their Brexit plan to rival the prime minister’s. That hasn’t happened. Creative differences over the 140-page document – which included plans to build a “Star Wars”-style missile shield to protect Britain from nuclear attack and an “expeditionary force” to defend the Falklands – meant that the plan had to be scrapped. |
| Instead, the Brexiteers attempted a united front with an event on the merits of “no deal” and an event on the Irish border. The former saw its figures of £1.1tn benefit for Britain swiftly disputed and the latter backfired when a photo emerged in which all the leading Brexiteers were caught with their heads in their hands. It hardly sends the message that this a group with a plan should a time of national reckoning be on the horizon. | Instead, the Brexiteers attempted a united front with an event on the merits of “no deal” and an event on the Irish border. The former saw its figures of £1.1tn benefit for Britain swiftly disputed and the latter backfired when a photo emerged in which all the leading Brexiteers were caught with their heads in their hands. It hardly sends the message that this a group with a plan should a time of national reckoning be on the horizon. |
| With Brexiteers unable to agree on much other than the fact that they don’t like Chequers, Raab’s organisational skills – complete with technical notices – look approaching masterful by comparison. There are many Tory MPs who don’t like Chequers but a large chunk are also sceptical of no deal. Today’s no-deal notices are unlikely to have convinced them that it would be preferable. With no alternative plan to Chequers but “no deal”, Raab’s “optimum outcome” of a negotiated deal is looking more likely than it has for months. | With Brexiteers unable to agree on much other than the fact that they don’t like Chequers, Raab’s organisational skills – complete with technical notices – look approaching masterful by comparison. There are many Tory MPs who don’t like Chequers but a large chunk are also sceptical of no deal. Today’s no-deal notices are unlikely to have convinced them that it would be preferable. With no alternative plan to Chequers but “no deal”, Raab’s “optimum outcome” of a negotiated deal is looking more likely than it has for months. |
| • Katy Balls is the Spectator’s political correspondent | • Katy Balls is the Spectator’s political correspondent |
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