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| The politics minute: Trump fan Chris Collins running in New York | The politics minute: Trump fan Chris Collins running in New York |
| (30 days later) | |
| Good evening, I’m Ben Jacobs, and this is the Guardian’s new-look politics minute. In the run-up to the midterm elections, I’ll bring you the latest from Washington and beyond every Monday, Wednesday and Friday evening. If you’re not already receiving this rundown by email, sign up. | Good evening, I’m Ben Jacobs, and this is the Guardian’s new-look politics minute. In the run-up to the midterm elections, I’ll bring you the latest from Washington and beyond every Monday, Wednesday and Friday evening. If you’re not already receiving this rundown by email, sign up. |
| On trial and on the ballot | On trial and on the ballot |
| Despite being indicted for insider trading in August, Republican Chris Collins is staying on the ballot in his conservative congressional district in upstate New York that Trump won by 25%. He had initially said that he would not run for re-election. | Despite being indicted for insider trading in August, Republican Chris Collins is staying on the ballot in his conservative congressional district in upstate New York that Trump won by 25%. He had initially said that he would not run for re-election. |
| Could he lose? Yes. Despite the heavily Republican leaning of the seat, voters tend be reluctant to support scandal-plagued incumbents, particularly in wave years. Incumbent members of both parties under criminal investigation don’t have a particularly good winning percentage. In 2008, a Republican even won a New Orleans congressional district that Obama won with 73% of the vote after the Democratic incumbent faced a federal corruption trial. | Could he lose? Yes. Despite the heavily Republican leaning of the seat, voters tend be reluctant to support scandal-plagued incumbents, particularly in wave years. Incumbent members of both parties under criminal investigation don’t have a particularly good winning percentage. In 2008, a Republican even won a New Orleans congressional district that Obama won with 73% of the vote after the Democratic incumbent faced a federal corruption trial. |
| Could he lose? Yes. Despite the heavily Republican leaning of the seat, voters tend be reluctant to support scandal-plagued incumbents, particularly in wave years. Incumbent members of both parties under criminal investigation don’t have a particularly good winning percentage. In 2008, a Republican even won a New Orleans congressional district that Obama won with 73% of the vote after the Democratic incumbent faced a federal corruption trial. | Could he lose? Yes. Despite the heavily Republican leaning of the seat, voters tend be reluctant to support scandal-plagued incumbents, particularly in wave years. Incumbent members of both parties under criminal investigation don’t have a particularly good winning percentage. In 2008, a Republican even won a New Orleans congressional district that Obama won with 73% of the vote after the Democratic incumbent faced a federal corruption trial. |
| So why he is running? Although there were legal impediments to Collins removing his name from the ballot, it was still doable. The gamble may be that he’ll be still be able to win re-election. If so, Collins will have more leverage negotiating a plea bargain with federal prosecutors. | So why he is running? Although there were legal impediments to Collins removing his name from the ballot, it was still doable. The gamble may be that he’ll be still be able to win re-election. If so, Collins will have more leverage negotiating a plea bargain with federal prosecutors. |
| So why he is running? Although there were legal impediments to Collins removing his name from the ballot, it was still doable. The gamble may be that he’ll be still be able to win re-election. If so, Collins will have more leverage negotiating a plea bargain with federal prosecutors. | So why he is running? Although there were legal impediments to Collins removing his name from the ballot, it was still doable. The gamble may be that he’ll be still be able to win re-election. If so, Collins will have more leverage negotiating a plea bargain with federal prosecutors. |
| Is this only a local story? Collins was the first member of Congress to endorse Trump. The second, Duncan Hunter Jr, has also been indicted. His continued presence on the ballot helps Democrats push a message about Republican corruption across the country in November. | Is this only a local story? Collins was the first member of Congress to endorse Trump. The second, Duncan Hunter Jr, has also been indicted. His continued presence on the ballot helps Democrats push a message about Republican corruption across the country in November. |
| Is this only a local story? Collins was the first member of Congress to endorse Trump. The second, Duncan Hunter Jr, has also been indicted. His continued presence on the ballot helps Democrats push a message about Republican corruption across the country in November. | Is this only a local story? Collins was the first member of Congress to endorse Trump. The second, Duncan Hunter Jr, has also been indicted. His continued presence on the ballot helps Democrats push a message about Republican corruption across the country in November. |
| Democrats make 2020 moves | Democrats make 2020 moves |
| Colorado governor John Hickenlooper is the latest Democrat to take steps towards a 2020 presidential bid and has launched a leadership Pac which he can use to fund political travel and funnel money to favored political candidates. | Colorado governor John Hickenlooper is the latest Democrat to take steps towards a 2020 presidential bid and has launched a leadership Pac which he can use to fund political travel and funnel money to favored political candidates. |
| What does it mean for the midterms? It means Hickenlooper will be another prominent surrogate available for Democratic candidates. The Colorado governor is going to Georgia and Florida later this week to campaign for gubernatorial nominees Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum there. | What does it mean for the midterms? It means Hickenlooper will be another prominent surrogate available for Democratic candidates. The Colorado governor is going to Georgia and Florida later this week to campaign for gubernatorial nominees Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum there. |
| What does it mean for the midterms? It means Hickenlooper will be another prominent surrogate available for Democratic candidates. The Colorado governor is going to Georgia and Florida later this week to campaign for gubernatorial nominees Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum there. | What does it mean for the midterms? It means Hickenlooper will be another prominent surrogate available for Democratic candidates. The Colorado governor is going to Georgia and Florida later this week to campaign for gubernatorial nominees Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum there. |
| Could he win? Hickenlooper is a popular two-term governor of a purple state and has been a leader on issues like gun control and marijuana legalization. However, a center-left sexagenarian without a strong national profile will face an uphill fight for the nomination in 2020. | Could he win? Hickenlooper is a popular two-term governor of a purple state and has been a leader on issues like gun control and marijuana legalization. However, a center-left sexagenarian without a strong national profile will face an uphill fight for the nomination in 2020. |
| Could he win? Hickenlooper is a popular two-term governor of a purple state and has been a leader on issues like gun control and marijuana legalization. However, a center-left sexagenarian without a strong national profile will face an uphill fight for the nomination in 2020. | Could he win? Hickenlooper is a popular two-term governor of a purple state and has been a leader on issues like gun control and marijuana legalization. However, a center-left sexagenarian without a strong national profile will face an uphill fight for the nomination in 2020. |
| Koch network spending big in Wisconsin | Koch network spending big in Wisconsin |
| Americans for Prosperity announced on Monday that they are spending another $1.3m in Wisconsin to aid Scott Walker in his re-election bid. The group has already spent $1.8m in the Badger State and this expenditure only covers the next three weeks. | Americans for Prosperity announced on Monday that they are spending another $1.3m in Wisconsin to aid Scott Walker in his re-election bid. The group has already spent $1.8m in the Badger State and this expenditure only covers the next three weeks. |
| Will it help Walker? It can’t hurt the embattled incumbent who facing what might be his toughest campaign yet. The ads are all negative and serve to define his opponent Democrat Tony Evers, who is still a relative unknown. In contrast, everyone in Wisconsin knows who Scott Walker is. | Will it help Walker? It can’t hurt the embattled incumbent who facing what might be his toughest campaign yet. The ads are all negative and serve to define his opponent Democrat Tony Evers, who is still a relative unknown. In contrast, everyone in Wisconsin knows who Scott Walker is. |
| Will it help Walker? It can’t hurt the embattled incumbent who facing what might be his toughest campaign yet. The ads are all negative and serve to define his opponent Democrat Tony Evers, who is still a relative unknown. In contrast, everyone in Wisconsin knows who Scott Walker is. | Will it help Walker? It can’t hurt the embattled incumbent who facing what might be his toughest campaign yet. The ads are all negative and serve to define his opponent Democrat Tony Evers, who is still a relative unknown. In contrast, everyone in Wisconsin knows who Scott Walker is. |
| Why this is big: Walker’s efforts to break public sector unions and advance a deregulatory agenda has long made him a hero on the right, particularly among those affiliated with the libertarian-leaning Koch network. His past gubernatorial campaigns received strong support from the Koch network and Walker’s defeat would be a major blow for conservatives who have long touted his tenure as a model for governance. | Why this is big: Walker’s efforts to break public sector unions and advance a deregulatory agenda has long made him a hero on the right, particularly among those affiliated with the libertarian-leaning Koch network. His past gubernatorial campaigns received strong support from the Koch network and Walker’s defeat would be a major blow for conservatives who have long touted his tenure as a model for governance. |
| Why this is big: Walker’s efforts to break public sector unions and advance a deregulatory agenda has long made him a hero on the right, particularly among those affiliated with the libertarian-leaning Koch network. His past gubernatorial campaigns received strong support from the Koch network and Walker’s defeat would be a major blow for conservatives who have long touted his tenure as a model for governance. | Why this is big: Walker’s efforts to break public sector unions and advance a deregulatory agenda has long made him a hero on the right, particularly among those affiliated with the libertarian-leaning Koch network. His past gubernatorial campaigns received strong support from the Koch network and Walker’s defeat would be a major blow for conservatives who have long touted his tenure as a model for governance. |
| Ad of the day | Ad of the day |
| Democrat Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota is widely considered the most vulnerable incumbent from either party in the United States. However, in a new ad in her deep red state, she is one of the first Democrats to strike an aggressive pose on Trump’s trade policy and its effects on the economy in her rural state. | Democrat Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota is widely considered the most vulnerable incumbent from either party in the United States. However, in a new ad in her deep red state, she is one of the first Democrats to strike an aggressive pose on Trump’s trade policy and its effects on the economy in her rural state. |
| Will it work? Maybe. The ad doesn’t mention Trump at all in a state where the president is overwhelmingly popular. Instead, it just goes after Republican Kevin Cramer’s support for “the trade war”. Heitkamp has a tall order trying to thread the line between criticizing Trump’s policies without criticizing Trump himself. | Will it work? Maybe. The ad doesn’t mention Trump at all in a state where the president is overwhelmingly popular. Instead, it just goes after Republican Kevin Cramer’s support for “the trade war”. Heitkamp has a tall order trying to thread the line between criticizing Trump’s policies without criticizing Trump himself. |
| Will it work? Maybe. The ad doesn’t mention Trump at all in a state where the president is overwhelmingly popular. Instead, it just goes after Republican Kevin Cramer’s support for “the trade war”. Heitkamp has a tall order trying to thread the line between criticizing Trump’s policies without criticizing Trump himself. | Will it work? Maybe. The ad doesn’t mention Trump at all in a state where the president is overwhelmingly popular. Instead, it just goes after Republican Kevin Cramer’s support for “the trade war”. Heitkamp has a tall order trying to thread the line between criticizing Trump’s policies without criticizing Trump himself. |
| Poll of the day | Poll of the day |
| In Arizona, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has a sizable lead on Republican Martha McSally in a poll conducted by CNN. Sinema has a 50% to 43% lead against her Republican opponent in a key Democratic pickup opportunity. | In Arizona, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has a sizable lead on Republican Martha McSally in a poll conducted by CNN. Sinema has a 50% to 43% lead against her Republican opponent in a key Democratic pickup opportunity. |
| Does this mean the Democrats could win the Senate? Yes, there is no path for Democrats to win the Senate without picking up the Arizona seat, which is currently held by Jeff Flake. McSally had a brief bounce in early September after she easily won her primary. This poll indicates that the race may be returning to the pre-primary status quo for both parties. | Does this mean the Democrats could win the Senate? Yes, there is no path for Democrats to win the Senate without picking up the Arizona seat, which is currently held by Jeff Flake. McSally had a brief bounce in early September after she easily won her primary. This poll indicates that the race may be returning to the pre-primary status quo for both parties. |
| Does this mean the Democrats could win the Senate? Yes, there is no path for Democrats to win the Senate without picking up the Arizona seat, which is currently held by Jeff Flake. McSally had a brief bounce in early September after she easily won her primary. This poll indicates that the race may be returning to the pre-primary status quo for both parties. | Does this mean the Democrats could win the Senate? Yes, there is no path for Democrats to win the Senate without picking up the Arizona seat, which is currently held by Jeff Flake. McSally had a brief bounce in early September after she easily won her primary. This poll indicates that the race may be returning to the pre-primary status quo for both parties. |
| So will Sinema win? The race is a dead heat and the poll doesn’t reflect a scoop from CNN itself over the weekend about Sinema’s far-left past. Although the Democrat now paints herself as a moderate, the former Green party member led a group that distributed flyers depicting an American soldier as a skeleton responsible for “US terror” in the Middle East. | So will Sinema win? The race is a dead heat and the poll doesn’t reflect a scoop from CNN itself over the weekend about Sinema’s far-left past. Although the Democrat now paints herself as a moderate, the former Green party member led a group that distributed flyers depicting an American soldier as a skeleton responsible for “US terror” in the Middle East. |
| So will Sinema win? The race is a dead heat and the poll doesn’t reflect a scoop from CNN itself over the weekend about Sinema’s far-left past. Although the Democrat now paints herself as a moderate, the former Green party member led a group that distributed flyers depicting an American soldier as a skeleton responsible for “US terror” in the Middle East. | So will Sinema win? The race is a dead heat and the poll doesn’t reflect a scoop from CNN itself over the weekend about Sinema’s far-left past. Although the Democrat now paints herself as a moderate, the former Green party member led a group that distributed flyers depicting an American soldier as a skeleton responsible for “US terror” in the Middle East. |
| Does this have national implications? Democrats have long eyed Arizona with its growing Hispanic population as a state that they could win in a presidential election. Before Comey’s email announcement, Hillary Clinton was campaigning there in a longshot bid to make Republicans go on offense. A Sinema win this year would clearly signal that Arizona’s 11 electoral votes will be in play in 2020. | Does this have national implications? Democrats have long eyed Arizona with its growing Hispanic population as a state that they could win in a presidential election. Before Comey’s email announcement, Hillary Clinton was campaigning there in a longshot bid to make Republicans go on offense. A Sinema win this year would clearly signal that Arizona’s 11 electoral votes will be in play in 2020. |
| Does this have national implications? Democrats have long eyed Arizona with its growing Hispanic population as a state that they could win in a presidential election. Before Comey’s email announcement, Hillary Clinton was campaigning there in a longshot bid to make Republicans go on offense. A Sinema win this year would clearly signal that Arizona’s 11 electoral votes will be in play in 2020. | Does this have national implications? Democrats have long eyed Arizona with its growing Hispanic population as a state that they could win in a presidential election. Before Comey’s email announcement, Hillary Clinton was campaigning there in a longshot bid to make Republicans go on offense. A Sinema win this year would clearly signal that Arizona’s 11 electoral votes will be in play in 2020. |
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