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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/23/the-guardian-view-on-labour-brexit-and-the-economy-are-the-key-tests
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| The Guardian view on Labour: Brexit and the economy are the key tests | The Guardian view on Labour: Brexit and the economy are the key tests |
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| As the old political adage puts it: “Oppositions don’t win elections; governments lose them.” Many of the dynamics of British politics in 2018 would seem to bear this out. The Conservatives are bungling Brexit big time. The prime minister’s authority is shot. And the Tory conference next week could be a bloodbath. If the adage is right, therefore, then the Labour party may be tempted to spend the next three days in Liverpool avoiding needless mistakes and basking in the advent of a Jeremy Corbyn government. | As the old political adage puts it: “Oppositions don’t win elections; governments lose them.” Many of the dynamics of British politics in 2018 would seem to bear this out. The Conservatives are bungling Brexit big time. The prime minister’s authority is shot. And the Tory conference next week could be a bloodbath. If the adage is right, therefore, then the Labour party may be tempted to spend the next three days in Liverpool avoiding needless mistakes and basking in the advent of a Jeremy Corbyn government. |
| That would be a complacent mistake. For one thing, Commons arithmetic and the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act make an early election difficult to trigger, even with a Brexit breakdown. For another, in spite of their multiple inadequacies, the Tories remain head-to-head with Labour in the polls, and in some cases ahead, suggesting that the case for Labour has not yet been won. For a third, a grindingly self-absorbed summer for Labour over antisemitism raised questions about Mr Corbyn’s judgment, which he often struggled to answer. | That would be a complacent mistake. For one thing, Commons arithmetic and the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act make an early election difficult to trigger, even with a Brexit breakdown. For another, in spite of their multiple inadequacies, the Tories remain head-to-head with Labour in the polls, and in some cases ahead, suggesting that the case for Labour has not yet been won. For a third, a grindingly self-absorbed summer for Labour over antisemitism raised questions about Mr Corbyn’s judgment, which he often struggled to answer. |
| Either way, Labour needs to use this week in Liverpool to do two big things. The first, inescapably, is to clarify and refine its position on Brexit. This is the biggest issue facing the nation today. The cost of Brexit will be felt and borne most heavily by Labour voters. There is no Brexit policy on which the divided Conservatives can go to the country. Labour therefore needs to be the party that, in government, can take over and bring direction to the Brexit policy issues and the process alike. | Either way, Labour needs to use this week in Liverpool to do two big things. The first, inescapably, is to clarify and refine its position on Brexit. This is the biggest issue facing the nation today. The cost of Brexit will be felt and borne most heavily by Labour voters. There is no Brexit policy on which the divided Conservatives can go to the country. Labour therefore needs to be the party that, in government, can take over and bring direction to the Brexit policy issues and the process alike. |
| A key part of that is to propose a precise role for a popular vote on the terms, whether negotiated by the Tories or Labour. An Observer/ICM poll at the weekend showed 86% support among Labour members for such a poll. Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, gave it his backing too. In his weekend media interviews, Mr Corbyn appeared to be reconciling himself to such an outcome, which is supported by some of his most fervent followers. If so, that is wise. | A key part of that is to propose a precise role for a popular vote on the terms, whether negotiated by the Tories or Labour. An Observer/ICM poll at the weekend showed 86% support among Labour members for such a poll. Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, gave it his backing too. In his weekend media interviews, Mr Corbyn appeared to be reconciling himself to such an outcome, which is supported by some of his most fervent followers. If so, that is wise. |
| Labour’s second big task this week is to put more flesh on the bones of what a Labour government should promise in economic and social policy. That can’t be separated from Brexit, because the terms on which the UK leaves the EU (if it happens) will profoundly shape the economic circumstances which Labour would face in office. In short, Brexit will make Labour’s social justice and economic rebalancing programmes more difficult. Even in the absence of Brexit, however, these are the issues that will decide whether Labour has the authority and the mandate to make the new kind of Britain it seeks. | Labour’s second big task this week is to put more flesh on the bones of what a Labour government should promise in economic and social policy. That can’t be separated from Brexit, because the terms on which the UK leaves the EU (if it happens) will profoundly shape the economic circumstances which Labour would face in office. In short, Brexit will make Labour’s social justice and economic rebalancing programmes more difficult. Even in the absence of Brexit, however, these are the issues that will decide whether Labour has the authority and the mandate to make the new kind of Britain it seeks. |
| That is why the most keenly followed speech at Liverpool may not be Mr Corbyn’s on Wednesday but that of the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, on Monday. Ten years on from the financial crisis, and after a decade of austerity, public opinion is more open to redistributive economic policies of the kind Mr McDonnell favours. But fairness, though very important, is not the only test. Effectiveness matters too. As the economic historian Adam Tooze argues in his recent book Crashed, politicians of the left and the right still default to national policy solutions to tackle globalised digital financial asymmetries that simply have no respect for borders. Here again, an ineradicable European dimension has to be part of the solution. Here also the need to be effective rather than dogmatic is crucial. | That is why the most keenly followed speech at Liverpool may not be Mr Corbyn’s on Wednesday but that of the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, on Monday. Ten years on from the financial crisis, and after a decade of austerity, public opinion is more open to redistributive economic policies of the kind Mr McDonnell favours. But fairness, though very important, is not the only test. Effectiveness matters too. As the economic historian Adam Tooze argues in his recent book Crashed, politicians of the left and the right still default to national policy solutions to tackle globalised digital financial asymmetries that simply have no respect for borders. Here again, an ineradicable European dimension has to be part of the solution. Here also the need to be effective rather than dogmatic is crucial. |
| During this year, Mr McDonnell has sometimes seemed to be on an interesting journey. He is carving out a rather subtler reputation than his party leader. He has begun to acquire a more respectful press. He has presided over some new thinking by advisers on issues like low pay, part-time work, borrowing and industrial democracy. Much of this is embryonic. Many are still very wary. Mr McDonnell plays to the old gallery when it suits him. But the shadow chancellor is revealing an awareness about the need for political credibility. This really matters. He understands two interlocking truths – that radical economic measures are needed and that a radical government cannot afford to fail. His speech this week needs to show why Labour deserves to win a fresh election – not just why the Tories should lose it. | During this year, Mr McDonnell has sometimes seemed to be on an interesting journey. He is carving out a rather subtler reputation than his party leader. He has begun to acquire a more respectful press. He has presided over some new thinking by advisers on issues like low pay, part-time work, borrowing and industrial democracy. Much of this is embryonic. Many are still very wary. Mr McDonnell plays to the old gallery when it suits him. But the shadow chancellor is revealing an awareness about the need for political credibility. This really matters. He understands two interlocking truths – that radical economic measures are needed and that a radical government cannot afford to fail. His speech this week needs to show why Labour deserves to win a fresh election – not just why the Tories should lose it. |
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