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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/30/slick-snp-show-glasgow-wont-hide-pressure-independence-vote-nicola-sturgeon
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| A slick SNP show in Glasgow can’t hide pressure for independence vote | A slick SNP show in Glasgow can’t hide pressure for independence vote |
| (about 1 month later) | |
| As the SNP’s annual conferences have become bigger and brasher and bolder, so too has the opprobrium and disdain they attract. Once, politicians were accustomed to promenading around these venues exchanging greetings with a small and cosy band of political obsessives like themselves and well-behaved party hacks. Now, the unseen tentacles of social media have made them more recognisable. As the crowds have become bigger and a little… shall we say, more irascible, the greetings have become somewhat more colourful. | As the SNP’s annual conferences have become bigger and brasher and bolder, so too has the opprobrium and disdain they attract. Once, politicians were accustomed to promenading around these venues exchanging greetings with a small and cosy band of political obsessives like themselves and well-behaved party hacks. Now, the unseen tentacles of social media have made them more recognisable. As the crowds have become bigger and a little… shall we say, more irascible, the greetings have become somewhat more colourful. |
| Some of the assembled commentators now retaliate by dismissing them as a rabble and likening the conference to a rally, a term they deploy to imply that the gathering lacks political judgment and is guided merely by the emotion of the mob. It is a slur that each of the other parties in Scotland would dearly love to have cast upon them. When you observe all the empty seats at a Lib-Dem or Tory or even Labour conference, you wonder if they ought to be agitating for a returns agreement on empty seats with the venue owners. | Some of the assembled commentators now retaliate by dismissing them as a rabble and likening the conference to a rally, a term they deploy to imply that the gathering lacks political judgment and is guided merely by the emotion of the mob. It is a slur that each of the other parties in Scotland would dearly love to have cast upon them. When you observe all the empty seats at a Lib-Dem or Tory or even Labour conference, you wonder if they ought to be agitating for a returns agreement on empty seats with the venue owners. |
| Another reason why Glasgow now figures large on the party’s list is that Scotland’s biggest and most important city is where the Yes movement has derived its biggest source of comfort in recent years. Glasgow and neighbouring North Lanarkshire were among the four Scottish regions that voted for independence. To say that Glasgow, once regarded as an eternal stronghold for Labour, has merely fallen to the SNP, is to understate the scale of the party’s annexation of the city. | Another reason why Glasgow now figures large on the party’s list is that Scotland’s biggest and most important city is where the Yes movement has derived its biggest source of comfort in recent years. Glasgow and neighbouring North Lanarkshire were among the four Scottish regions that voted for independence. To say that Glasgow, once regarded as an eternal stronghold for Labour, has merely fallen to the SNP, is to understate the scale of the party’s annexation of the city. |
| Most of Glasgow’s MPs and MSPs are Scottish nationalists and their team now administers Glasgow city council, a development regarded as unthinkable less than a decade ago. For the foreseeable future, Glasgow will continue to be the key to the SNP’s continuing dominance in Scotland. The obverse of this, of course, is that if momentum and success in Glasgow are seriously threatened then so, too, is the great independence adventure. The party can never become complacent about Glasgow. | Most of Glasgow’s MPs and MSPs are Scottish nationalists and their team now administers Glasgow city council, a development regarded as unthinkable less than a decade ago. For the foreseeable future, Glasgow will continue to be the key to the SNP’s continuing dominance in Scotland. The obverse of this, of course, is that if momentum and success in Glasgow are seriously threatened then so, too, is the great independence adventure. The party can never become complacent about Glasgow. |
| In normal circumstances, the SNP would be approaching their conference in fine fettle. They must be pinching themselves at how often the British public is reminded of the abject failure of the Tories’ Brexit strategy. Two years after the EU referendum and less than six months from Brexit Doomsday, no one knows if a hard border is to be imposed on Ireland. We don’t know if there will be a customs union and we don’t know what agreements have been put in place in the absence of one. The remaining EU leaders, obviously bored with how long this is taking, have taken to playing their own cruel parlour game: let’s see who can humiliate Theresa May the most this week. | In normal circumstances, the SNP would be approaching their conference in fine fettle. They must be pinching themselves at how often the British public is reminded of the abject failure of the Tories’ Brexit strategy. Two years after the EU referendum and less than six months from Brexit Doomsday, no one knows if a hard border is to be imposed on Ireland. We don’t know if there will be a customs union and we don’t know what agreements have been put in place in the absence of one. The remaining EU leaders, obviously bored with how long this is taking, have taken to playing their own cruel parlour game: let’s see who can humiliate Theresa May the most this week. |
| If the Labour party in Scotland goes a few weeks without encountering any problems, they seem to get jumpy | If the Labour party in Scotland goes a few weeks without encountering any problems, they seem to get jumpy |
| In the salons of Brussels, I’m told they have Boris Johnson karaoke sessions where participants win prizes for the best impersonation of Britain’s best-known end-of-the-pier act. When they see grotesques such as Jacob Rees-Mogg and Tommy Robinson emerge from the swamps at either end of the British cultural spectrum, they wonder if the country’s exit from the EU might just be a good thing. | In the salons of Brussels, I’m told they have Boris Johnson karaoke sessions where participants win prizes for the best impersonation of Britain’s best-known end-of-the-pier act. When they see grotesques such as Jacob Rees-Mogg and Tommy Robinson emerge from the swamps at either end of the British cultural spectrum, they wonder if the country’s exit from the EU might just be a good thing. |
| In Scotland, the main opposition is headed by a woman who is now known more for her appearances on English light-entertainment shows than for her political leadership. Meanwhile, if the Labour party in Scotland goes a few weeks without encountering any problems, they seem to get jumpy and set about making their own. The bizarre question of to what extent Labour will fund Kezia Dugdale’s eye-wateringly prohibitive costs over a defamation claim from a pro-independence blogger threatens to convulse the party. Then there’s the crazy case of the nine councillors fighting against suspension for propping up the Tories in Aberdeen. | In Scotland, the main opposition is headed by a woman who is now known more for her appearances on English light-entertainment shows than for her political leadership. Meanwhile, if the Labour party in Scotland goes a few weeks without encountering any problems, they seem to get jumpy and set about making their own. The bizarre question of to what extent Labour will fund Kezia Dugdale’s eye-wateringly prohibitive costs over a defamation claim from a pro-independence blogger threatens to convulse the party. Then there’s the crazy case of the nine councillors fighting against suspension for propping up the Tories in Aberdeen. |
| Recent party conferences have been joyous occasions for the SNP and they always leverage every ounce of optimism from them. The SNP would seek to manage the colours of the sweetie wrappers in shops at the venue if they could, to ensure they chime with Nicola Sturgeon’s Christian Louboutins. They will produce a slick, choreographed show at which the current financial and managerial crisis in the Scottish NHS and John Swinney’s stalled education reforms will be contained. | Recent party conferences have been joyous occasions for the SNP and they always leverage every ounce of optimism from them. The SNP would seek to manage the colours of the sweetie wrappers in shops at the venue if they could, to ensure they chime with Nicola Sturgeon’s Christian Louboutins. They will produce a slick, choreographed show at which the current financial and managerial crisis in the Scottish NHS and John Swinney’s stalled education reforms will be contained. |
| Yet a curious feeling of unease is palpable before this one. Party managers are eager to assess the damage of Alex Salmond’s action against the government over processes relating to a complaint of misconduct against him, denied by Salmond, by two female staffers. Quite simply, they won’t know until the conference kicks off. | Yet a curious feeling of unease is palpable before this one. Party managers are eager to assess the damage of Alex Salmond’s action against the government over processes relating to a complaint of misconduct against him, denied by Salmond, by two female staffers. Quite simply, they won’t know until the conference kicks off. |
| And although it’s now merely a matter of when Brexit will bring down May’s government, it is also causing internal problems within the SNP government. As food and medicine shortages now seem inescapable in the short term at least, Sturgeon is facing increasing pressure to cash in and name the day for a second referendum on Scottish independence. The easy response to these problems is to urge patience until the full ruinous extent of Brexit becomes widely apparent. The first minister, though, knows that she doesn’t have unlimited time to wait for the Brexit effect to kick in. She must call for a second plebiscite well before the Holyrood election in May 2021. The continuing incompetence of the Tories and Labour in Scotland means there is no real threat to SNP electoral hegemony, but there can be no guarantee of a third successive pro-independence majority. This means a campaign would need to begin no later than early 2020. | And although it’s now merely a matter of when Brexit will bring down May’s government, it is also causing internal problems within the SNP government. As food and medicine shortages now seem inescapable in the short term at least, Sturgeon is facing increasing pressure to cash in and name the day for a second referendum on Scottish independence. The easy response to these problems is to urge patience until the full ruinous extent of Brexit becomes widely apparent. The first minister, though, knows that she doesn’t have unlimited time to wait for the Brexit effect to kick in. She must call for a second plebiscite well before the Holyrood election in May 2021. The continuing incompetence of the Tories and Labour in Scotland means there is no real threat to SNP electoral hegemony, but there can be no guarantee of a third successive pro-independence majority. This means a campaign would need to begin no later than early 2020. |
| In Scotland’s most important city, meanwhile, where the educational attainment gap and health inequality are most grievously apparent, many of the new Glaswegians for Yes will soon be looking for signs of improvement. | In Scotland’s most important city, meanwhile, where the educational attainment gap and health inequality are most grievously apparent, many of the new Glaswegians for Yes will soon be looking for signs of improvement. |
| • Kevin McKenna is an Observer columnist | • Kevin McKenna is an Observer columnist |
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