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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| The Jocks Will Inherit the Earth | The Jocks Will Inherit the Earth |
| (about 1 month later) | |
| There are too many depressing aspects of Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation on Saturday to enumerate, chief among them what it means for the women of America. | There are too many depressing aspects of Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation on Saturday to enumerate, chief among them what it means for the women of America. |
| But Kavanaugh’s confirmation also proves something that every former high school freak, floater or orchestra nerd has secretly known all along: The overlords of the cafeteria really do inherit the earth. | But Kavanaugh’s confirmation also proves something that every former high school freak, floater or orchestra nerd has secretly known all along: The overlords of the cafeteria really do inherit the earth. |
| For those who lived at the margins during high school — and I was one of them, an adolescent made of nerve endings and giant hair and an outsize desire to ingratiate — this is a bitter pill to swallow. The fantasy in most of our imaginations (and Hollywood’s: See “Heathers” or “Mean Girls”) is that this gang gets its comeuppance once it’s disgorged into the real world. | For those who lived at the margins during high school — and I was one of them, an adolescent made of nerve endings and giant hair and an outsize desire to ingratiate — this is a bitter pill to swallow. The fantasy in most of our imaginations (and Hollywood’s: See “Heathers” or “Mean Girls”) is that this gang gets its comeuppance once it’s disgorged into the real world. |
| But it doesn’t. The academic literature about the fate of the high school in crowd is quite clear. The Renate alumni do very, very well. The future has a name, and it is Squi. | But it doesn’t. The academic literature about the fate of the high school in crowd is quite clear. The Renate alumni do very, very well. The future has a name, and it is Squi. |
| Perhaps the most imaginative paper to support this idea was published in 2001. The psychologist Jacquelynne Eccles and two colleagues asked 900 10th graders in Michigan to determine which of the “Breakfast Club” characters they identified with the most: the Jock, the Brain, the Princess, the Basket Case or the Criminal. (A tad crude? Sure. But find me another study involving John Hughes that survived peer review.) | Perhaps the most imaginative paper to support this idea was published in 2001. The psychologist Jacquelynne Eccles and two colleagues asked 900 10th graders in Michigan to determine which of the “Breakfast Club” characters they identified with the most: the Jock, the Brain, the Princess, the Basket Case or the Criminal. (A tad crude? Sure. But find me another study involving John Hughes that survived peer review.) |
| Roughly a decade later, the researchers checked in. The male Jocks still had the highest self-esteem. They also drank more than any other group, even the Criminals. The Brains were next. (“I liked beer. I still like beer.”) | Roughly a decade later, the researchers checked in. The male Jocks still had the highest self-esteem. They also drank more than any other group, even the Criminals. The Brains were next. (“I liked beer. I still like beer.”) |
| In 2012, a group of economists published an intriguing paper showing that popular boys in adolescence earned 10 percent more than those with low status — 35 years later. High school popularity had consequences, including lucrative ones, in the labor market. | In 2012, a group of economists published an intriguing paper showing that popular boys in adolescence earned 10 percent more than those with low status — 35 years later. High school popularity had consequences, including lucrative ones, in the labor market. |
| “Whether you’re looking at popularity, athletic status or attractiveness — all of the data tell you the same thing,” the sociologist Robert Crosnoe, president of the Society for Research on Adolescence, told me. “You carry forward into adulthood this legacy of how you operated when you were in high school. What better training ground to learn that you have power and wield it? And why wouldn’t you think you’re good enough to yell at senators on live television and be a Supreme Court justice 40 years later? You’ve had 40 years of confirming evidence!” | “Whether you’re looking at popularity, athletic status or attractiveness — all of the data tell you the same thing,” the sociologist Robert Crosnoe, president of the Society for Research on Adolescence, told me. “You carry forward into adulthood this legacy of how you operated when you were in high school. What better training ground to learn that you have power and wield it? And why wouldn’t you think you’re good enough to yell at senators on live television and be a Supreme Court justice 40 years later? You’ve had 40 years of confirming evidence!” |
| Crosnoe himself published a book in 2013 about the enduring effects of high school, noting that men and women who were rated good-looking as teenagers made more money than their peers who were merely rated average, even 15 years later, regardless of how they looked in their 30s. He used a sample of thousands of people. | Crosnoe himself published a book in 2013 about the enduring effects of high school, noting that men and women who were rated good-looking as teenagers made more money than their peers who were merely rated average, even 15 years later, regardless of how they looked in their 30s. He used a sample of thousands of people. |
| (You might reasonably wonder how he knew if these kids were attractive. The answer, I learned, is that people who gather information for the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health actually rate the looks of participating teenagers. At least they were doing so in the name of science, not yearbook trolling.) | (You might reasonably wonder how he knew if these kids were attractive. The answer, I learned, is that people who gather information for the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health actually rate the looks of participating teenagers. At least they were doing so in the name of science, not yearbook trolling.) |
| Does this mean that former geeks and outsiders don’t stand a fighting chance in adult life? Of course not. The tech world is teeming with triumphant nerds, and in 2008 we saw the brilliant ascent of an outsider in politics. | Does this mean that former geeks and outsiders don’t stand a fighting chance in adult life? Of course not. The tech world is teeming with triumphant nerds, and in 2008 we saw the brilliant ascent of an outsider in politics. |
| Barack Obama felt betwixt and between throughout his adolescence, at loose ends about his racial identity and his place in the world. It was only when he began working as a community organizer that he began to see the many points of commonality he had with his fellow humans. | Barack Obama felt betwixt and between throughout his adolescence, at loose ends about his racial identity and his place in the world. It was only when he began working as a community organizer that he began to see the many points of commonality he had with his fellow humans. |
| “They’d offer a story to match or confound mine, a knot to bind our experiences together — a lost father, an adolescent brush with crime, a wandering heart, a moment of simple grace,” he wrote in “Dreams From My Father.” “As time passed, I found that these stories, taken together, had helped me bind my world together, that they gave me the sense of place and purpose I’d been looking for.” | “They’d offer a story to match or confound mine, a knot to bind our experiences together — a lost father, an adolescent brush with crime, a wandering heart, a moment of simple grace,” he wrote in “Dreams From My Father.” “As time passed, I found that these stories, taken together, had helped me bind my world together, that they gave me the sense of place and purpose I’d been looking for.” |
| Politics became a means for him to reduce the distances between people, and therefore to reduce their sense of shame. | Politics became a means for him to reduce the distances between people, and therefore to reduce their sense of shame. |
| Whereas insiders, members of an exclusive club, tend to induce shame, not reduce it. Which may explain why this moment has surfaced so many ancient feelings of teenage dread. Kavanaugh reads as a very particular type to those who never enjoyed a secure place in adolescence, who never walked the high school halls with the majestic ego of the self-assured. | Whereas insiders, members of an exclusive club, tend to induce shame, not reduce it. Which may explain why this moment has surfaced so many ancient feelings of teenage dread. Kavanaugh reads as a very particular type to those who never enjoyed a secure place in adolescence, who never walked the high school halls with the majestic ego of the self-assured. |
| Kavanaugh and his defenders say his success is proof that he’s outgrown his younger self. But the truth is, the data suggests just the opposite. That self predicted exactly who he’d be. | Kavanaugh and his defenders say his success is proof that he’s outgrown his younger self. But the truth is, the data suggests just the opposite. That self predicted exactly who he’d be. |
| Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook and Twitter (@NYTopinion). | Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook and Twitter (@NYTopinion). |