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SNP delivers Brexit ultimatum to Theresa May Everything to play for if MPs reject Brexit deal, says Nicola Sturgeon
(about 7 hours later)
The Scottish National party will vote against any Brexit deal that takes the UK out of the single market and customs union, the party’s Westminster leader has said. Nicola Sturgeon hopes the Scottish National party can help engineer a political crisis at Westminster that will force MPs to reconsider continued UK membership of the EU single market and customs union after Brexit.
Ian Blackford said the SNP’s 35 MPs would also resist a “blind Brexit”, where little was known about the substance of the deal, or a no-deal Brexit, suggesting Theresa May would struggle to command a majority in the Commons next year. The first minister used a TV interview on the eve of her keynote address to the party’s annual conference to say its 35 MPs would almost certainly refuse to support any divorce deal obtained by Theresa May in November.
Addressing delegates at the SNP’s annual conference in Glasgow, Blackford said: “The only deal we will accept is one that keeps Scotland in the single market or customs union. Any other deal sells us short. I put the prime minister on notice we will not support any measure that threatens Scottish jobs and living standards.” She said that if that point there was no Commons majority in favour of the form of Brexit envisaged by the Tory leadership, it would mean “everything is to play for” and could resurrect hopes of a Norway-style deal with Brussels.
His speech echoes a warning on Sunday from Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, who said it was “almost inevitable” the SNP would vote against whatever deal May produced, since the UK government would never table an offer to stay in the EU single market. Sturgeon believes withholding support would make it impossible for the UK government to build a majority in favour of a hard Brexit, and would create a position that could attract pro-European MPs from both Labour and the Tories.
Blackford said Brexit would cause lasting harm and threatened living standards across the UK. “We will not follow the Tories through any lobby [vote in the Commons] that leads to economic destruction for citizens across Scotland and the rest of the UK,” he said. She told ITV News: “I cannot envisage us voting for anything that doesn’t include single market and customs union. [If May] brought back a bad deal, a no-deal or a blind-deal Brexit and the House of Commons doesn’t support that then I think everything is to play for in terms of putting the single market and customs union back on the table.”
“We will not sit back and allow Scotland to be dragged out of the single market and customs union against its will. We will not be complicit in a blind or a no-deal Brexit. Friends, when the time comes to vote on a Brexit deal, the only deal we will accept is one that keeps Scotland in the single market and the customs union. Any other deal sells us short.” The SNP’s 35 MPs are the third largest party group at Westminster and could be crucial in the event of any tight Brexit votes. With some Conservatives likely to rebel against any deal based on May’s Chequers proposals and Labour threatening to vote against the same, the prime minister’s prospects of winning parliamentary support already look tricky.
Their ultimatum will increase pressure on May and the EU to produce a compromise deal that commands a cross-party majority large enough to neutralise the votes of Conservative Brexit hardliners. If the SNP sticks to its stance, that will require backing from Labour. The SNP’s Westminster leader, Ian Blackford, reinforced Sturgeon’s argument on Monday when he said the party would cause “maximum disruption to this Tory government’s agenda” if it continued to ignore Scotland’s objections to Brexit.
It also raises the prospect of the SNP’s MPs walking through the same division lobbies in the Commons as Brexit hardliners such as Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson, who would reject any deal designed to find a middle-ground compromise on Brexit. Addressing delegates at the SNP conference in Glasgow, Blackford said: “The only deal we will accept is one that keeps Scotland in the single market or customs union. Any other deal sells us short. I put the prime minister on notice we will not support any measure that threatens Scottish jobs and living standards.”
Sturgeon and Blackford have also backed the alternative route of staging a second EU referendum, where the question would be to accept the deal or remain in the union. Blackford said Brexit would cause lasting harm and threaten living standards across the UK. “We will not follow the Tories through any lobby [vote in the Commons] that leads to economic destruction for citizens across Scotland and the rest of the UK,” he said.
Both doubt such a vote will take place because it would never be supported by the UK government, but they have decided they cannot be seen to obstruct or dismiss the proposal, even it it remains hypothetical. “We will not be complicit in a blind or a no-deal Brexit. Friends, when the time comes to vote on a Brexit deal, the only deal we will accept is one that keeps Scotland in the single market and the customs union. Any other deal sells us short.”
The ultimatum raises the unlikely prospect of the SNP’s MPs walking through the same division lobbies in the Commons as Brexit hardliners such as Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson, who have said they would reject any deal that they believe would give the EU long-term power over the UK after Brexit.
No 10 said it regarded Sturgeon’s intervention as unhelpful. May’s official spokesman said: “Now is the time for the UK to be pulling together to get the right deal in our negotiations.”
Sturgeon and Blackford have also backed the alternative route of staging a second EU referendum, in which the question would be to accept the deal or remain in the union – although it is not clear that the idea could command a majority in parliament. The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has only said the option would be on the table if he cannot force a general election.
SNP leaders also doubt a second referendum vote will take place, but they have decided they cannot be seen to obstruct or dismiss the proposal, even it remains hypothetical.
Despite announcing on Sunday that the SNP would back a second Brexit vote without requiring preconditions, such as a pledge to give Scotland a fresh referendum on independence, Sturgeon said she was not an enthusiastic supporter of the people’s vote option.
She said the best defence against Scotland being forced to accept policies from Westminster that it had not voted for was by leaving the UK entirely. “Yes, we can look at options that might protect Scotland’s position, but fundamentally the only real protection for Scotland against having decisions imposed on us against our will is for Scotland to become independent,” she told the BBC.
The latest opinion polls, particularly a Survation poll commissioned by the SNP, suggest a no-deal Brexit could produce a narrow majority in support of Scottish independence, although currently a majority still support remaining in the UK.
Support for independence while the UK remains in the EU has hovered at around 46-47%, excluding don’t knows, for months. The SNP poll found support for independence if there was a hard Brexit had crept up to 52%.
Scottish National party (SNP)Scottish National party (SNP)
Brexit
Nicola Sturgeon
Scottish politicsScottish politics
ScotlandScotland
Brexit
European Union
Foreign policyForeign policy
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