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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/12/the-guardian-view-on-universal-credit-human-cost-and-political-price
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| The Guardian view on universal credit: human cost and political price | The Guardian view on universal credit: human cost and political price |
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| Warnings on successive days this week by two former prime ministers, Gordon Brown and Sir John Major, that universal credit could prove as unpopular as the poll tax, have pushed the government’s continuing struggle with benefit reform back up the agenda. A crunch moment is expected soon, with new regulations due to be approved by parliament before the next phase of the rollout can go ahead. Conservative backbenchers including Robert Halfon and Heidi Allen have broken ranks and threatened a rebellion if the next phase is not rethought. | Warnings on successive days this week by two former prime ministers, Gordon Brown and Sir John Major, that universal credit could prove as unpopular as the poll tax, have pushed the government’s continuing struggle with benefit reform back up the agenda. A crunch moment is expected soon, with new regulations due to be approved by parliament before the next phase of the rollout can go ahead. Conservative backbenchers including Robert Halfon and Heidi Allen have broken ranks and threatened a rebellion if the next phase is not rethought. |
| Labour is conducting a review and will announce in due course whether it is sticking with its current policy of “pause and fix”, or changing course. Recent comments from the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, that universal credit is a “shambles” and should be scrapped suggest that the party may be moving towards proposing abolition. | Labour is conducting a review and will announce in due course whether it is sticking with its current policy of “pause and fix”, or changing course. Recent comments from the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, that universal credit is a “shambles” and should be scrapped suggest that the party may be moving towards proposing abolition. |
| The Tory rebels, like Sir John, believe the existing plan is a liability that threatens to alienate precisely the low-income, hard-working voters that they rely on for their majorities in towns such as Plymouth and Harlow. They are right. This week’s belated admission by the work and pensions secretary, Esther McVey, that some families will be worse off than under the existing system blew a hole in the government’s wall of denial. | The Tory rebels, like Sir John, believe the existing plan is a liability that threatens to alienate precisely the low-income, hard-working voters that they rely on for their majorities in towns such as Plymouth and Harlow. They are right. This week’s belated admission by the work and pensions secretary, Esther McVey, that some families will be worse off than under the existing system blew a hole in the government’s wall of denial. |
| The insight that low-wage voters will be angry when their incomes reduce is surely uncontroversial. More than 3 million people currently receive tax credits. Exactly whose benefits will reduce, and who will gain from the new system, is complicated and depends on circumstances such as the number of children. But it is a view widely shared among mainstream Conservatives, including Theresa May, that the party needs to improve on its offer to these low-income or “just about managing” families that she talked about when she became prime minister in 2016. So far the government has failed to deliver on this promise. Recent research shows that there are 2.8 million people living in poverty in households where every adult works full-time. | The insight that low-wage voters will be angry when their incomes reduce is surely uncontroversial. More than 3 million people currently receive tax credits. Exactly whose benefits will reduce, and who will gain from the new system, is complicated and depends on circumstances such as the number of children. But it is a view widely shared among mainstream Conservatives, including Theresa May, that the party needs to improve on its offer to these low-income or “just about managing” families that she talked about when she became prime minister in 2016. So far the government has failed to deliver on this promise. Recent research shows that there are 2.8 million people living in poverty in households where every adult works full-time. |
| Universal credit’s inherent problems have been magnified by austerity. Iain Duncan Smith, the scheme’s architect until his resignation from the cabinet in 2016, is pushing for the restoration in the autumn budget of £2bn that was cut from benefits in 2015 by George Osborne. | Universal credit’s inherent problems have been magnified by austerity. Iain Duncan Smith, the scheme’s architect until his resignation from the cabinet in 2016, is pushing for the restoration in the autumn budget of £2bn that was cut from benefits in 2015 by George Osborne. |
| The next move is the government’s. Clearly an injection of billions of pounds into the Department for Work and Pensions budget would ease the pains of universal credit – and reduce the risks associated with migrating claimants from existing benefits to the new one. If Mrs May wants to see off the threat of a revolt over universal credit, she will have little choice but to demand from the Treasury an additional £2-3bn to meet the shortfall. But the chancellor is already committed to finding sufficient tax rises to fund the £20bn promise to the NHS. The issue is where the extra money would come from. | The next move is the government’s. Clearly an injection of billions of pounds into the Department for Work and Pensions budget would ease the pains of universal credit – and reduce the risks associated with migrating claimants from existing benefits to the new one. If Mrs May wants to see off the threat of a revolt over universal credit, she will have little choice but to demand from the Treasury an additional £2-3bn to meet the shortfall. But the chancellor is already committed to finding sufficient tax rises to fund the £20bn promise to the NHS. The issue is where the extra money would come from. |
| As for universal credit itself, the National Audit Office savaged it this summer for causing hardship while failing to meet its objectives of saving money and boosting employment. But the spending watchdog also warned that there was no easy way back. The point of no return has not yet been reached, but at some point it will be. Once the tax credit claimants have been migrated across – and even if the government accedes to demands that it should handle the transfer itself rather than demanding that each claimant should put in a new application – it is unlikely that any new government would reverse the process. This is precisely why the rollout should be halted now. | As for universal credit itself, the National Audit Office savaged it this summer for causing hardship while failing to meet its objectives of saving money and boosting employment. But the spending watchdog also warned that there was no easy way back. The point of no return has not yet been reached, but at some point it will be. Once the tax credit claimants have been migrated across – and even if the government accedes to demands that it should handle the transfer itself rather than demanding that each claimant should put in a new application – it is unlikely that any new government would reverse the process. This is precisely why the rollout should be halted now. |
| An untransparent bunker mentality has bedevilled universal credit for years, if not from the start. Even as the impact of the changes has become clear, that thinking seems to have become more entrenched. In the long term the hope must be that policymakers will learn from the mistakes which have been so clearly set out by many reports. This week should have shown the government that there may be a political price to pay for the failings of universal credit as well as a human one. | An untransparent bunker mentality has bedevilled universal credit for years, if not from the start. Even as the impact of the changes has become clear, that thinking seems to have become more entrenched. In the long term the hope must be that policymakers will learn from the mistakes which have been so clearly set out by many reports. This week should have shown the government that there may be a political price to pay for the failings of universal credit as well as a human one. |
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