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You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/14/brexit-are-talks-finally-about-yield-solution-irish-border-issue
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| Brexit talks explained: why now is a crucial moment in negotiations | |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| Why is now a key moment in the Brexit negotiations? | |
| Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, said last month in Salzburg that he would need to see maximum progress on the problem of agreeing an all-weather “backstop” solution for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland by the time of the leaders’ summit starting in Brussels on Wednesday. | Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, said last month in Salzburg that he would need to see maximum progress on the problem of agreeing an all-weather “backstop” solution for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland by the time of the leaders’ summit starting in Brussels on Wednesday. |
| Talks on the issue have been intense. At a meeting on Friday evening in Luxembourg, the bloc’s deputy chief negotiator, Sabine Weyand, told ambassadors for the EU27 via a video link from Brussels that the state of play would be assessed on Sunday, with positive results hopefully to be made public on Monday. Dominic Raab, the UK Brexit secretary, was in the Belgian capital on Sunday to seal the deal. | Talks on the issue have been intense. At a meeting on Friday evening in Luxembourg, the bloc’s deputy chief negotiator, Sabine Weyand, told ambassadors for the EU27 via a video link from Brussels that the state of play would be assessed on Sunday, with positive results hopefully to be made public on Monday. Dominic Raab, the UK Brexit secretary, was in the Belgian capital on Sunday to seal the deal. |
| Is an agreement on the cards – and if so what is it? | Is an agreement on the cards – and if so what is it? |
| The EU’s backstop proposal was that Northern Ireland would in effect stay in the single market and the customs union while the rest of the UK withdrew. This would mean that there would be no checks on goods on the island of the Ireland, but there would be on trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. It would also mean that Northern Ireland would be outside the scope of future trade deals struck by the British government, one of the chief benefits of leaving the EU, Brexiters claim. | The EU’s backstop proposal was that Northern Ireland would in effect stay in the single market and the customs union while the rest of the UK withdrew. This would mean that there would be no checks on goods on the island of the Ireland, but there would be on trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. It would also mean that Northern Ireland would be outside the scope of future trade deals struck by the British government, one of the chief benefits of leaving the EU, Brexiters claim. |
| Theresa May rejected the proposal. The UK has instead proposed that the whole of the country stay in a customs union with the EU on a temporary, time-limited basis. Northern Ireland alone would remain under single market regulations, provided Stormont agreed. | Theresa May rejected the proposal. The UK has instead proposed that the whole of the country stay in a customs union with the EU on a temporary, time-limited basis. Northern Ireland alone would remain under single market regulations, provided Stormont agreed. |
| Brexiters do not like the idea of a whole-UK customs union. The Democratic Unionist party does not want Northern Ireland treated differently to the rest of the UK. The EU does not accept the notion of a time-limit on a backstop. How can it be all-weather if it runs out after a period? Instead the two negotiating teams are looking to build in criteria, and a possible review clause, into the agreement so that the prime minister can sell it back home. The 21-month transition period after Brexit day could also be extended to reassure unionists that everything will be done to ensure the backstop never comes into force. If a trade deal that can solve the problem is not available after the transition period ends, they would just extend the transition. | |
| So what happens next? | So what happens next? |
| While it seems that the EU and the UK have come to a broad agreement behind the scenes, it remains to be seen whether May is willing to push forward, and weather possible cabinet resignations and threats of a withdrawal of parliamentary support from the DUP. | While it seems that the EU and the UK have come to a broad agreement behind the scenes, it remains to be seen whether May is willing to push forward, and weather possible cabinet resignations and threats of a withdrawal of parliamentary support from the DUP. |
| If a deal is made public, it will get the leaders’ seal of approval at this week’s summit and a special Brexit summit on 17-18 November will be called to finalise the terms of the political declaration on the future trade deal. | If a deal is made public, it will get the leaders’ seal of approval at this week’s summit and a special Brexit summit on 17-18 November will be called to finalise the terms of the political declaration on the future trade deal. |
| The UK is seeking as much reference to frictionless trade in that document as possible, as it would make it easier to sell the backstop at home. If there is a good chance of frictionless trade, then there is a good chance that the backstop will be overtaken by a future trade deal. | The UK is seeking as much reference to frictionless trade in that document as possible, as it would make it easier to sell the backstop at home. If there is a good chance of frictionless trade, then there is a good chance that the backstop will be overtaken by a future trade deal. |
| But if the plan for a breakthrough moment falls flat, the summit could be very messy. The summit in Salzburg was a humiliation for May; she looked weak, and her claims of progress were torpedoed. History could repeat itself. The EU would then turn the November Brexit deal summit into a “no deal” summit to allow leaders to plan for the worst. Everything would then hinge on getting a deal on the Irish issue and the political declaration by a December summit. | But if the plan for a breakthrough moment falls flat, the summit could be very messy. The summit in Salzburg was a humiliation for May; she looked weak, and her claims of progress were torpedoed. History could repeat itself. The EU would then turn the November Brexit deal summit into a “no deal” summit to allow leaders to plan for the worst. Everything would then hinge on getting a deal on the Irish issue and the political declaration by a December summit. |
| Both sides need parliamentary ratification for whatever agreement is to emerge. That will take time. And there is not a lot of it left before the UK departs on 29 March. | Both sides need parliamentary ratification for whatever agreement is to emerge. That will take time. And there is not a lot of it left before the UK departs on 29 March. |
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| Theresa May | Theresa May |
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| analysis | analysis |
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