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Merkel's Bavaria ally CSU suffer 'massive losses' Merkel's Bavaria ally CSU suffers massive losses
(about 4 hours later)
Angela Merkel's sister party has suffered huge losses in Bavaria's state elections, provisional results suggest, in a blow to the German chancellor. Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative sister party has suffered huge losses in Bavaria's state election, raising new doubts about her ruling coalition.
The centre-right Christian Social Union (CSU) is set to lose its absolute majority in the state parliament. The centre-right Christian Social Union (CSU) is set to lose its absolute majority in the state parliament, which it has dominated since 1957.
The Greens look set to surge into second place and the anti-immigration AfD is on track to enter the state parliament for the first time. The Greens surged into second place, with nearly 17.5%.
The CSU has ruled Bavaria almost single-handedly since 1957. The anti-immigration AfD is set to enter Bavaria's parliament for the first time, with most votes counted.
However, it has lost support as opinion becomes polarised over issues like migration. The CSU got just over 37% - that is, more than 10% down on its 2013 result.
Party leader Horst Seehofer said it was "not a nice day", but added it was only "one side of the coin" as the vote gives "a clear mandate" allowing the CSU to form a new government. It was also a bitter night for Germany's decades-old centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), who slumped to just 9.7%. They and the CSU are in a fragile coalition with Mrs Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU).
Preliminary official results showed the CSU won about 37% of the vote, down 10 points on four years ago, with the left-leaning pro-immigration Greens just short of 18%. The CSU appears to have suffered from the row over immigration policy earlier this year between Mrs Merkel and Horst Seehofer, the CSU leader and German interior minister.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) came fourth with about 10%, behind a collective of independent candidates known as the Free Voters. He said it was "not a nice day" but added it was only "one side of the coin" as the vote gives "a clear mandate" allowing the CSU to form a new government.
Mrs Merkel's national coalition partners, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), trailed in fifth with less than 10%, their vote halved. There are signs that the CSU is leaning towards forming a Bavarian coalition with the right-leaning Free Voters (FW), a new independent party that won 11.6%. That would be a closer alignment than governing with the Greens.
There is speculation that it could pull out of the German federal government in an attempt to survive as a party. Alternative for Germany (AfD) came fourth with about 10%. It means AfD will have seats in 15 of Germany's 16 state parliaments.
SPD leader Andrea Nahles blamed the poor performance in Bavaria on squabbling within the coalition. German commentators say the parties in Mrs Merkel's coalition will strive to avoid any further splits ahead of another big state election - in Hesse on 28 October, currently run by the CDU.
SPD leader Andrea Nahles blamed her party's poor performance in Bavaria on squabbling within the coalition.
Rightward shift backfiresRightward shift backfires
By Jenny Hill, BBC News, BavariaBy Jenny Hill, BBC News, Bavaria
It was a terrible night for Angela Merkel's Bavarian sister party.It was a terrible night for Angela Merkel's Bavarian sister party.
The CSU has reigned supreme for decades in what is conservative country. But recent attempts to harden its tone and policies on migration, which included picking high-profile fights with Mrs Merkel, appear to have backfired.The CSU has reigned supreme for decades in what is conservative country. But recent attempts to harden its tone and policies on migration, which included picking high-profile fights with Mrs Merkel, appear to have backfired.
It's bad news for Mrs Merkel too. Bavaria reflects what's happening at national level, the dwindling popularity of the traditional centre-right and centre-left parties.It's bad news for Mrs Merkel too. Bavaria reflects what's happening at national level, the dwindling popularity of the traditional centre-right and centre-left parties.
Much may now depend on the results of state elections in Hesse in a fortnight. Mrs Merkel's CDU party is also losing support. Its general secretary Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said that what had happened in Bavaria was a warning. Much may now depend on the results in Hesse in a fortnight. The CDU is also losing support. Its general secretary Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said that what had happened in Bavaria was a warning.
Bavaria key facts
What happened to the CSU?What happened to the CSU?
The AfD's success in Bavaria has not been as great as in eastern Germany, but it appears to have taken large numbers of votes from the CSU. AfD's success in Bavaria has not been as great as in eastern Germany but it appears to have taken large numbers of votes from the CSU.
But by echoing some of the AfD's hardline policies such as on migration, the CSU also seems to have lost the support of more moderate voters.But by echoing some of the AfD's hardline policies such as on migration, the CSU also seems to have lost the support of more moderate voters.
The CSU's Markus Söder, current Bavarian prime minister, said the projected result was painful but the party should learn from it.The CSU's Markus Söder, current Bavarian prime minister, said the projected result was painful but the party should learn from it.
"We have to analyse the changes taking place both in Bavaria and in society," he said."We have to analyse the changes taking place both in Bavaria and in society," he said.
"One of the most important jobs we now have is to ensure that this state is stable, governable, and remains as strong as it is now.""One of the most important jobs we now have is to ensure that this state is stable, governable, and remains as strong as it is now."
Bavaria key facts Some German commentators say the CSU now has an old-fashioned image for many voters.
What is the bigger picture?
The poll is a serious setback for Mrs Merkel, just months after she formed a fragile coalition with the CSU and SPD - both of whom suffered huge losses in Bavaria.
The BBC's Jenny Hill in Bavaria says the election illustrates the complexity of the challenge faced by so many of Europe's large established parties.The BBC's Jenny Hill in Bavaria says the election illustrates the complexity of the challenge faced by so many of Europe's large established parties.
It's not simply the rise of the far right, she says, but that voters are walking away in favour of smaller, newer movements.It's not simply the rise of the far right, she says, but that voters are walking away in favour of smaller, newer movements.