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| Only when MPs stare into the abyss will they agree to a People’s Vote | Only when MPs stare into the abyss will they agree to a People’s Vote |
| (about 2 months later) | |
| The march for a People’s Vote converged on Parliament Square. Since MPs were not at home to hear the crowds, some might say that this was a bit pointless. I’d say it was exactly the right place to be. The Brexit stramash began in parliament. Parliament is failing to find a resolution. If another referendum is the only way to escape from the deep hole in which Britain is trapped, then that will require the agreement of MPs. | The march for a People’s Vote converged on Parliament Square. Since MPs were not at home to hear the crowds, some might say that this was a bit pointless. I’d say it was exactly the right place to be. The Brexit stramash began in parliament. Parliament is failing to find a resolution. If another referendum is the only way to escape from the deep hole in which Britain is trapped, then that will require the agreement of MPs. |
| Marches are good for the morale of a cause. They can give momentum and energy to a campaign. It can be a fun and sociable way to spend a Saturday. But those campaigning for another referendum need to know this. Marches by themselves are never going to produce another plebiscite. It is possible that the country will get a last-gasp chance to change its mind and call the whole damn thing off, but that opportunity depends on MPs. It can happen only if sufficient of them are persuaded that a further referendum is the right thing to do or the expedient thing to do. And if not those, then that throwing the question back to the people is the only thing left to do. | Marches are good for the morale of a cause. They can give momentum and energy to a campaign. It can be a fun and sociable way to spend a Saturday. But those campaigning for another referendum need to know this. Marches by themselves are never going to produce another plebiscite. It is possible that the country will get a last-gasp chance to change its mind and call the whole damn thing off, but that opportunity depends on MPs. It can happen only if sufficient of them are persuaded that a further referendum is the right thing to do or the expedient thing to do. And if not those, then that throwing the question back to the people is the only thing left to do. |
| This becomes more conceivable with each day of chaos and paralysis. Time was when deluded Brexiters peddled the fantasy that a deal would be a piece of cherry-topped cake. Twenty-eight months on, there is still no agreement and the splits in the Conservative party grow ever more vivid. The prime minister’s latest tortuous efforts to grope her way out of the maze have succeeded only in creating a rare moment of unity between Tory hard Brexiters and soft ones. They have ganged up against her. There has been a further diminution in the chances of cobbling together a parliamentary majority for any deal that Mrs May might come up with. It would take time to legislate for a further plebiscite, though that would not be an insuperable hurdle. The EU would be pretty likely to move back the March deadline for departure in order to accommodate a referendum. Some of its leading figures have said as much. So it is more possible to see how it might happen. The odds against, once extremely long, have shortened. But there are several formidable obstacles still to be cleared. And the worst of them live in parliament. | This becomes more conceivable with each day of chaos and paralysis. Time was when deluded Brexiters peddled the fantasy that a deal would be a piece of cherry-topped cake. Twenty-eight months on, there is still no agreement and the splits in the Conservative party grow ever more vivid. The prime minister’s latest tortuous efforts to grope her way out of the maze have succeeded only in creating a rare moment of unity between Tory hard Brexiters and soft ones. They have ganged up against her. There has been a further diminution in the chances of cobbling together a parliamentary majority for any deal that Mrs May might come up with. It would take time to legislate for a further plebiscite, though that would not be an insuperable hurdle. The EU would be pretty likely to move back the March deadline for departure in order to accommodate a referendum. Some of its leading figures have said as much. So it is more possible to see how it might happen. The odds against, once extremely long, have shortened. But there are several formidable obstacles still to be cleared. And the worst of them live in parliament. |
| People's Vote march: 'more than half a million' rally for new Brexit referendum – live | People's Vote march: 'more than half a million' rally for new Brexit referendum – live |
| A referendum is highly unlikely to happen without the acquiescence of at least one of the leaders of the major parties. Either or both Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May will have to eat a heap of their own words, a dish that politicians rarely find appetising. The Labour leader would have to unwind previous declarations about “respecting” the 2016 result. The prime minister has foolishly used bridge-burning descriptions like “betrayal” in the context of another vote. | A referendum is highly unlikely to happen without the acquiescence of at least one of the leaders of the major parties. Either or both Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May will have to eat a heap of their own words, a dish that politicians rarely find appetising. The Labour leader would have to unwind previous declarations about “respecting” the 2016 result. The prime minister has foolishly used bridge-burning descriptions like “betrayal” in the context of another vote. |
| Their resistance to another referendum is widely shared in the Commons. The hard Brexiters obviously hate the idea, conveniently forgetting that some of their number used to advocate a confirmatory further referendum when they thought it suited their cause. The polls are suggesting that another vote would result in a win for Remain, but it is best not to over-invest faith in the polls, especially when they are asking what is, at the moment, a hypothetical question. | Their resistance to another referendum is widely shared in the Commons. The hard Brexiters obviously hate the idea, conveniently forgetting that some of their number used to advocate a confirmatory further referendum when they thought it suited their cause. The polls are suggesting that another vote would result in a win for Remain, but it is best not to over-invest faith in the polls, especially when they are asking what is, at the moment, a hypothetical question. |
| It may be more illuminating to look at the changes in the demographic profile of Britain in the two years and a bit that have passed since “the people” spoke. It would not be exactly the same “people” speaking if there is another referendum. Brexit voters tend to be disproportionately elderly and the elderly are disproportionately more likely to die than the rest of the population. That’s just biology. It is estimated that about 750,000 Brexit voters have shuffled off this mortal coil since the summer of 2016. About 1.6 million young people have reached voting age over the same period. Not all will vote, of course, but those who will, being young, are overwhelmingly anti-Brexit. This demographic shift, which becomes more pronounced as time goes on, is a very good reason for Brexiters to worry that 2016 was their best-ever chance of wrenching Britain out of the EU. | It may be more illuminating to look at the changes in the demographic profile of Britain in the two years and a bit that have passed since “the people” spoke. It would not be exactly the same “people” speaking if there is another referendum. Brexit voters tend to be disproportionately elderly and the elderly are disproportionately more likely to die than the rest of the population. That’s just biology. It is estimated that about 750,000 Brexit voters have shuffled off this mortal coil since the summer of 2016. About 1.6 million young people have reached voting age over the same period. Not all will vote, of course, but those who will, being young, are overwhelmingly anti-Brexit. This demographic shift, which becomes more pronounced as time goes on, is a very good reason for Brexiters to worry that 2016 was their best-ever chance of wrenching Britain out of the EU. |
| This fear would explain why those who claim to speak for “the people” are so very terrified of going back to the country for a second opinion now that Britain is in fuller possession of the facts about Brexit. The antipathy of Brexiters does not, though, mean that all Remainer MPs are enthusiastic about another referendum. A lot are highly wary of the prospect and a significant number are flatly opposed. Some are fearful that another referendum would turn Britain into a country even more disfigured by ugly division. Others – and this is, of course, particularly true of MPs with a large Leave vote in their constituencies – are in a panic that there will be a backlash which could cost them their jobs at the next election. These are not arguments of principle against another referendum, but they are feelings that will have to be overcome to secure one. | This fear would explain why those who claim to speak for “the people” are so very terrified of going back to the country for a second opinion now that Britain is in fuller possession of the facts about Brexit. The antipathy of Brexiters does not, though, mean that all Remainer MPs are enthusiastic about another referendum. A lot are highly wary of the prospect and a significant number are flatly opposed. Some are fearful that another referendum would turn Britain into a country even more disfigured by ugly division. Others – and this is, of course, particularly true of MPs with a large Leave vote in their constituencies – are in a panic that there will be a backlash which could cost them their jobs at the next election. These are not arguments of principle against another referendum, but they are feelings that will have to be overcome to secure one. |
| The main priority of the quiet majority of Tories is to avoid a train wreck that throws the keys to No 10 to Jeremy Corbyn | The main priority of the quiet majority of Tories is to avoid a train wreck that throws the keys to No 10 to Jeremy Corbyn |
| To that end, the main focus of the People’s Vote campaign in coming weeks will not really be the people. The primary target audience will be parliamentarians. MPs are going to be on the receiving end of a lot of social media messaging demanding another referendum. To reach the less digitally connected of our parliamentarians, they will also be deluged with postcards. Constituency polling will be used where it may show that referendum-resistant MPs do not represent the views of their local voters. This will be aimed at some Tory MPs and a lot of Labour ones. The reluctance of the Labour leadership to endorse another referendum is in large part driven by fear of Labour Leavers. They certainly exist, and in large numbers, but it is worth remembering that a majority of Labour voters backed Remain, by a margin of roughly two to one. After 28 months of humiliating failure, during which some of the costs of Brexit have become more exposed, that balance has shifted to something more like three to one. The veteran pollster Peter Kellner argues that a clear Labour declaration in favour of another referendum could be worth a lot of extra support for the party and a big bag of additional seats at the next election. Some will quarrel with his analysis, but this is the sort of territory that the campaign needs to be arguing on. I say this because, for many Labour MPs, it will be a calculation about where their self-interest lies that will determine what they do. | To that end, the main focus of the People’s Vote campaign in coming weeks will not really be the people. The primary target audience will be parliamentarians. MPs are going to be on the receiving end of a lot of social media messaging demanding another referendum. To reach the less digitally connected of our parliamentarians, they will also be deluged with postcards. Constituency polling will be used where it may show that referendum-resistant MPs do not represent the views of their local voters. This will be aimed at some Tory MPs and a lot of Labour ones. The reluctance of the Labour leadership to endorse another referendum is in large part driven by fear of Labour Leavers. They certainly exist, and in large numbers, but it is worth remembering that a majority of Labour voters backed Remain, by a margin of roughly two to one. After 28 months of humiliating failure, during which some of the costs of Brexit have become more exposed, that balance has shifted to something more like three to one. The veteran pollster Peter Kellner argues that a clear Labour declaration in favour of another referendum could be worth a lot of extra support for the party and a big bag of additional seats at the next election. Some will quarrel with his analysis, but this is the sort of territory that the campaign needs to be arguing on. I say this because, for many Labour MPs, it will be a calculation about where their self-interest lies that will determine what they do. |
| This will also be true of a lot of Tory MPs. The bulk of Conservative MPs are not zealots of any description about Brexit. The main priority of the quiet majority of Tories is to avoid a train wreck that irreparably devastates their party’s reputation and throws the keys to No 10 into the lap of Jeremy Corbyn. If things get bad enough, that might just persuade these Tory MPs that their only escape hatch is marked “another referendum”. | This will also be true of a lot of Tory MPs. The bulk of Conservative MPs are not zealots of any description about Brexit. The main priority of the quiet majority of Tories is to avoid a train wreck that irreparably devastates their party’s reputation and throws the keys to No 10 into the lap of Jeremy Corbyn. If things get bad enough, that might just persuade these Tory MPs that their only escape hatch is marked “another referendum”. |
| The Observer view on the urgent need for a fresh vote on Europe | Observer editorial | The Observer view on the urgent need for a fresh vote on Europe | Observer editorial |
| Be clear, though. The situation will have to get very bad indeed for this to happen. To secure another referendum, a lot of things have to happen in the right order. To be more accurate, a lot of wrong things have to happen in the right order. One of those things is total parliamentary stalemate. The likeliest path to another referendum is parliament throwing out Mrs May’s deal and also rejecting a no-deal. In other words, the situation will have to become even more deadlocked than it is now before we get to the point where a majority of parliamentarians might feel forced to return the question to the people. | Be clear, though. The situation will have to get very bad indeed for this to happen. To secure another referendum, a lot of things have to happen in the right order. To be more accurate, a lot of wrong things have to happen in the right order. One of those things is total parliamentary stalemate. The likeliest path to another referendum is parliament throwing out Mrs May’s deal and also rejecting a no-deal. In other words, the situation will have to become even more deadlocked than it is now before we get to the point where a majority of parliamentarians might feel forced to return the question to the people. |
| We may not reach that moment until it is perilously late in the day. Some of the prime minister’s cabinet colleagues suspect that she will delay the crunch votes in the Commons until the very last moment, in the hope of bouncing MPs into swallowing whatever deal, however awful, she presents them with. Other ministers think that she hasn’t got a plan anything like that cunning, but they might well end up there by hideous accident. We may have to get terribly close to the edge of the precipice before parliament will feel so desperate that it is compelled to sanction another referendum. This will be a nightmare for anyone trying to run a public service or manage a business – or even simply plan a holiday in Europe. It will mean considerable agony and danger for Britain. | We may not reach that moment until it is perilously late in the day. Some of the prime minister’s cabinet colleagues suspect that she will delay the crunch votes in the Commons until the very last moment, in the hope of bouncing MPs into swallowing whatever deal, however awful, she presents them with. Other ministers think that she hasn’t got a plan anything like that cunning, but they might well end up there by hideous accident. We may have to get terribly close to the edge of the precipice before parliament will feel so desperate that it is compelled to sanction another referendum. This will be a nightmare for anyone trying to run a public service or manage a business – or even simply plan a holiday in Europe. It will mean considerable agony and danger for Britain. |
| Only when they are staring into the very depths of the abyss are a critical mass of MPs likely to conclude that they have no other choice but to go back to the people for the final say. It will get darker before it can become lighter. | Only when they are staring into the very depths of the abyss are a critical mass of MPs likely to conclude that they have no other choice but to go back to the people for the final say. It will get darker before it can become lighter. |
| • Andrew Rawnsley is an Observer columnist | • Andrew Rawnsley is an Observer columnist |
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