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Angela Merkel exit plan sparks succession battle in party ranks Angela Merkel exit plan sparks succession battle in party ranks
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Angela Merkel’s decision not to seek re-election as head of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has triggered a fierce succession battle over the party’s future direction that could help put an end to the German chancellor’s political career long before her planned departure date of 2021. Angela Merkel’s decision not to seek re-election as head of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has triggered a fierce succession battle over the party’s future direction that could bring the German chancellor’s political career to an end long before her planned departure date of 2021.
Merkel, who has led the party for 18 years and Europe’s largest economy for 13, announced on Monday she would not stand in a CDU election at its annual conference in December or seek a new mandate as chancellor in the next federal election in three years’ time. Merkel, who has led the party for 18 years and Europe’s largest economy for 13, announced on Monday she would not stand for re-election at the CDU’s annual conference in December or seek a new mandate as chancellor in the next federal election in three years’ time.
She hoped to quell bitter government infighting that has caused support for the party and its coalition partner, the centre-left Social Democratic party (SPD), to plunge to historic lows in recent state elections, and – by stage-managing an orderly exit – give the CDU a fighting chance of renewal.She hoped to quell bitter government infighting that has caused support for the party and its coalition partner, the centre-left Social Democratic party (SPD), to plunge to historic lows in recent state elections, and – by stage-managing an orderly exit – give the CDU a fighting chance of renewal.
But many observers believe she may well be forced out as chancellor as early as next year, with her party’s choice of new leader just one of a number of possible upsets that could further unsettle a country seen as a rock of political stability throughout most of her stewardship.But many observers believe she may well be forced out as chancellor as early as next year, with her party’s choice of new leader just one of a number of possible upsets that could further unsettle a country seen as a rock of political stability throughout most of her stewardship.
For the time being, Merkel’s more liberal supporters in the CDU appear to be backing her strategy, believing that abandoning the party leadership could make her more effective as chancellor by liberating her from the party’s internal squabbles. “She’s determined to stay,” said Josef Janning of the European Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin. “But once her successor is chosen, the pressure will be on to allow them to campaign from the chancellery ... She will resist. But no German chancellor has ever been able to choreograph the end of their term.”
For the time being, Merkel’s more liberal supporters in the CDU appear to be backing her strategy, believing that abandoning the party leadership could make her more effective as chancellor by placing her above the party’s internal squabbles.
The right wing, however, is sceptical. Conservative hardliners have been outspoken in their criticism of Merkel since her 2015 decision to allow more than 1 million asylum seekers into Germany during Europe’s migration crisis, sharpening their attacks after the CDU’s poor results in 2017 federal elections when the party returned its lowest score since 1949.The right wing, however, is sceptical. Conservative hardliners have been outspoken in their criticism of Merkel since her 2015 decision to allow more than 1 million asylum seekers into Germany during Europe’s migration crisis, sharpening their attacks after the CDU’s poor results in 2017 federal elections when the party returned its lowest score since 1949.
Their opposition has only stiffened since disastrous state election showings by the CDU and its sister party, the Christian Social Union, in Bavaria and Hesse earlier this month. Several, including the rightwing CDU MP Joachim Pfeiffer, are openly calling for a change at the top of government before the next federal poll. “This cannot be business as usual,” Pfeiffer said.Their opposition has only stiffened since disastrous state election showings by the CDU and its sister party, the Christian Social Union, in Bavaria and Hesse earlier this month. Several, including the rightwing CDU MP Joachim Pfeiffer, are openly calling for a change at the top of government before the next federal poll. “This cannot be business as usual,” Pfeiffer said.
How long Merkel manages to remain as chancellor could well depend on which candidate the conservatives’ Hamburg conference adopts as the party’s new leader. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, widely known as AKK, the current CDU secretary general, is often described as Merkel’s chosen heir and would not pose her any undue problems. How long Merkel manages to remain as chancellor could well depend on her successor. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, widely known as AKK, the current CDU secretary general, is often described as Merkel’s chosen heir and would not pose her any undue problems.
Two others who have thrown their hats in the ring, however – the health minister, Jens Spahn, a fierce critic of the chancellor’s refugee policy, and Friedrich Merz, an arch-conservative former head of the CDU parliamentary group and old (and bitter) rival of Merkel’s, who confirmed his candidacy on Tuesday – could make her position so uncomfortable as to quickly become untenable.Two others who have thrown their hats in the ring, however – the health minister, Jens Spahn, a fierce critic of the chancellor’s refugee policy, and Friedrich Merz, an arch-conservative former head of the CDU parliamentary group and old (and bitter) rival of Merkel’s, who confirmed his candidacy on Tuesday – could make her position so uncomfortable as to quickly become untenable.
A fourth potential candidate, Armin Laschet, the state premier of Germany’s most populous region, North Rhine-Westphalia, said it was “more important at this time to reflect, to see what this all means for the party and how it can be kept united”. “If it’s Spahn, it’s really very complicated,” said Alexander Clarkson, lecturer in German and European studies at Kings College London. “He would want to ditch the SPD, go for early elections. She’ll struggle to stay if it’s Spahn.”
The CDU general secretary is a staunch centrist, Merkel loyalist and the favourite to succeed her. The 56-year-old former premier of Saarland, who also goes by her initials AKK, is also thought to be Merkel’s preference  to continue her work of modernising the party. Kramp-Karrenbauer is considered a pragmatist and was a quiet supporter of Merkel’s migration policy, but has expressed reservations about marriage and adoption rights for same sex couples.  Her intention to stand as CDU leader was reportedly met with applause from party colleagues.The CDU general secretary is a staunch centrist, Merkel loyalist and the favourite to succeed her. The 56-year-old former premier of Saarland, who also goes by her initials AKK, is also thought to be Merkel’s preference  to continue her work of modernising the party. Kramp-Karrenbauer is considered a pragmatist and was a quiet supporter of Merkel’s migration policy, but has expressed reservations about marriage and adoption rights for same sex couples.  Her intention to stand as CDU leader was reportedly met with applause from party colleagues.
At 38, the German health minister is the youngest contender to succeed Merkel. Openly gay, he is firmly to the right of Merkel and has described himself as a “burqaphobe.” He has also warned against “putting the boot into Britain” over Brexit. Perhaps the harshest critic of Merkel’s migration policy within the CDU, Spahn has made a name for himself with his combative style but, it seems, it might not have made him many friends. In contrast to Kramp-Karrenbauer, his intention to stand was reportedly met with deathly silence from party colleagues.At 38, the German health minister is the youngest contender to succeed Merkel. Openly gay, he is firmly to the right of Merkel and has described himself as a “burqaphobe.” He has also warned against “putting the boot into Britain” over Brexit. Perhaps the harshest critic of Merkel’s migration policy within the CDU, Spahn has made a name for himself with his combative style but, it seems, it might not have made him many friends. In contrast to Kramp-Karrenbauer, his intention to stand was reportedly met with deathly silence from party colleagues.
Merkel's old party rival was the first to announce he would stand to replace her. Back in Back in 2002, the dual party leaders (Merz was head of the CDU/CSU parliamentary bloc) had clashed over the latter's  suggested slimming down of the tax system and his calls for a “German dominant culture.” Merkel pushed him out of office and out of politics altogether until recent rumours of a comeback for the  62-year-old.Merkel's old party rival was the first to announce he would stand to replace her. Back in Back in 2002, the dual party leaders (Merz was head of the CDU/CSU parliamentary bloc) had clashed over the latter's  suggested slimming down of the tax system and his calls for a “German dominant culture.” Merkel pushed him out of office and out of politics altogether until recent rumours of a comeback for the  62-year-old.
The 57-year-old state premier of North Rhine-Westphalia and devout Catholic sits to the right of Merkel on migration, religion and family issues. In the past he has waded into debates about the role of Islam in Germany and has been a staunch opponent of same sex marriage as well as Germany’s military foreign interventions. He is thought to be close to the liberal FDP on energy policy.The 57-year-old state premier of North Rhine-Westphalia and devout Catholic sits to the right of Merkel on migration, religion and family issues. In the past he has waded into debates about the role of Islam in Germany and has been a staunch opponent of same sex marriage as well as Germany’s military foreign interventions. He is thought to be close to the liberal FDP on energy policy.
Amid a continent-wide splintering of Europe’s traditional political landscape, Germany’s conservatives face an existential dilemma.Amid a continent-wide splintering of Europe’s traditional political landscape, Germany’s conservatives face an existential dilemma.
With voters abandoning them for both the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)  and the pro-EU, refugee-welcoming Greens, tacking hard to the right and aping the AfD’s nationalist and xenophobic rhetoric – as the CSU attempted in Bavaria – has failed miserably. But in the current climate, defending the liberal centre, as Merkel tried for so long, is plainly not working either. With disgruntled voters abandoning them for both the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and the pro-EU, refugee-welcoming Greens, aping the AfD’s nationalist rhetoric – as the CSU attempted in Bavaria – has failed miserably. But defending the liberal centre, as Merkel tried for so long, is plainly not working either.
The threat to Merkel’s carefully laid plan does not come only from her own party. Plummeting support for the CDU/CSU’s junior coalition partner, the SPD, has left the centre-left deeply divided internally over whether it should continue in government at all. The threat to Merkel’s carefully laid plan comes not just from her own party, but from its coalition partner too. After electoral drubbings in Bavaria and Hesse in which the SPD’s vote shrank by up to half, many party members feel the only way to halt its seemingly terminal decline may be be to walk away from government.
After electoral drubbings in Bavaria and Hesse in which its share of the state vote shrank by up to half, many party members now feel that if the SPD is unable to achieve its policy goals in coalition, the only way to halt its seemingly terminal downward spiral will be to walk away and force new elections. The conservative German economy minister, Peter Altmaier, predicted on Monday the coalition would continue despite its losses.
The conservative German economy minister, Peter Altmaier, predicted on Monday the coalition would continue despite its severe electoral losses. But opinion polls suggest it will not last for ever: one survey last week found just 24% of German voters saying they would vote for the CDU/CSU in the next federal elections, with 15% saying they would back the SPD. That would put the centre-left party behind both the the AfD, on 16%, and the Greens – apparently beginning to supplant the SPD as the largest left-of-centre political force – on 20%. But one poll last week found just 24% of German voters ready to vote for the CDU/CSU in the next federal elections, with 15% backing the SPD. That would put the centre-left party behind both the the AfD, on 16%, and the Greens – apparently supplanting the SPD as the largest left-of-centre political force – on 20%.
A score as low as that in next May’s European elections, and in three more state votes due next autumn – all expected to see further substantial gains by the AfD – could put irresistible pressure on the SPD’s leader, Andrea Nahles, to either step down or pull the party out of government. A score as low as that in next May’s European elections, and in three more crunch state votes due next autumn – all expected to see further gains by the AfD – could put irresistible pressure on the SPD’s leader, Andrea Nahles, to pull the party out of government.
Nahles said on Tuesday that by September 2019, when the party is due to hold a mid-term review of its role in the coalition, the SPD “will be able to see whether this government is still the right place for us”. But the election of a conservative hardliner to succeed Merkel at the head of the CDU in December would make it even harder for the junior coalition partner to stay onboard. “If the SPD falls below 20% in Brandenburg particularly, they could well panic,” said Clarkson. “They know early elections would do them no good; their instinct is to cling on. But a really bad result next autumn could change that.”
Some analysts believe the SPD has fallen so far out of electoral favour that the last thing it will do is risk new elections, and that Merkel will manage a smooth withdrawal. A lot, however, could happen to upset her plan before 2021. Nahles said on Tuesday that by September 2019, when the party is due to hold a mid-term review of its role in the coalition, the SPD “will be able to see whether this government is still the right place for us”.
Some analysts believe the party has fallen so far out of electoral favour that will never risk early elections, and that Merkel will manage a smooth withdrawal. A great deal, however, could happen to upset that plan before 2021.
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