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| Near the Border, Beto Talks Immigration | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host. | Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host. |
| [Get On Politics delivered to your inbox.] | |
| In the White House, President Trump warned of an immigration “crisis” — that a caravan of criminal migrants bringing drugs to the country had “violently overrun” Mexico, and that the U.S. was on the verge of an “invasion.” | In the White House, President Trump warned of an immigration “crisis” — that a caravan of criminal migrants bringing drugs to the country had “violently overrun” Mexico, and that the U.S. was on the verge of an “invasion.” |
| At the same moment, less than two miles from the southern border, the Democratic Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke had another message: “There’s never been a better time for us to be alive, to be from Texas and to be from the U.S.-Mexico border,” he told voters in Brownsville, Tex. | At the same moment, less than two miles from the southern border, the Democratic Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke had another message: “There’s never been a better time for us to be alive, to be from Texas and to be from the U.S.-Mexico border,” he told voters in Brownsville, Tex. |
| Mr. O’Rourke is determined to tell another story, no matter what the president decides to say. The two men spoke simultaneously this afternoon, both delivering remarks intended to juice their midterm turnout. | Mr. O’Rourke is determined to tell another story, no matter what the president decides to say. The two men spoke simultaneously this afternoon, both delivering remarks intended to juice their midterm turnout. |
| Every few hours or so, it seems, Mr. Trump says something to try and turn the final days of this campaign into a referendum on immigration. | Every few hours or so, it seems, Mr. Trump says something to try and turn the final days of this campaign into a referendum on immigration. |
| Over the past few days alone, there was the call to get rid of birthright citizenship; the promise to move as many as 15,000 troops to the border; and the campaign ad he tweeted — widely denounced on the left, and described as “racist” and “sickening” by some anti-Trump conservatives — featuring a Mexican immigrant who was convicted of killing two police officers. | Over the past few days alone, there was the call to get rid of birthright citizenship; the promise to move as many as 15,000 troops to the border; and the campaign ad he tweeted — widely denounced on the left, and described as “racist” and “sickening” by some anti-Trump conservatives — featuring a Mexican immigrant who was convicted of killing two police officers. |
| Why Mr. Trump is pushing the issue is obvious: Polls show it animates his base. | Why Mr. Trump is pushing the issue is obvious: Polls show it animates his base. |
| What’s less clear is how Democrats respond. It’s an issue that illustrates, yet again, how the party is trying to find their way in the Trump era. | What’s less clear is how Democrats respond. It’s an issue that illustrates, yet again, how the party is trying to find their way in the Trump era. |
| Not having a national message isn’t a major problem in a midterm election, where candidates benefit from having the room to take positions tailored to their states. But it’s a dilemma that will quickly become central to the party’s fortunes in 2020. | Not having a national message isn’t a major problem in a midterm election, where candidates benefit from having the room to take positions tailored to their states. But it’s a dilemma that will quickly become central to the party’s fortunes in 2020. |
| Several candidates running in competitive Midwestern races have become nearly Trump Lite on immigration. Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri urged Mr. Trump to “use every tool he has at his disposal” to halt the caravan of migrants, adding, “I 100 percent back him up on that.” | Several candidates running in competitive Midwestern races have become nearly Trump Lite on immigration. Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri urged Mr. Trump to “use every tool he has at his disposal” to halt the caravan of migrants, adding, “I 100 percent back him up on that.” |
| Phil Bredesen, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Tennessee, released an ad on Tuesday promoting his decision to deploy the Tennessee National Guard to the southern border. | |
| Mr. O’Rourke offers a different model. In Brownsville, where I spent my afternoon covering his rally, he never mentioned the president’s name, saying he hadn’t seen Mr. Trump’s new ad. Instead, he cast the current moment in sweeping, historical terms, comparing it to the civil rights movement. | Mr. O’Rourke offers a different model. In Brownsville, where I spent my afternoon covering his rally, he never mentioned the president’s name, saying he hadn’t seen Mr. Trump’s new ad. Instead, he cast the current moment in sweeping, historical terms, comparing it to the civil rights movement. |
| “We, the people of Texas, came together for this country at the moment when it counted the most,” he told the cheering crowd gathered in a historic civic center. | “We, the people of Texas, came together for this country at the moment when it counted the most,” he told the cheering crowd gathered in a historic civic center. |
| Mr. O’Rourke, who’s opted out of much of the traditional campaign machinery, wagers that he can build a new coalition of suburbanites unhappy with Mr. Trump, young voters and Latinos, many of whom have never voted in their lives. | Mr. O’Rourke, who’s opted out of much of the traditional campaign machinery, wagers that he can build a new coalition of suburbanites unhappy with Mr. Trump, young voters and Latinos, many of whom have never voted in their lives. |
| “This desire to stir paranoia and fear on the part of the American public is a political ploy,” Mr. O’Rourke said. “The people of Texas need to remember that. We don’t need troops on the border.” | “This desire to stir paranoia and fear on the part of the American public is a political ploy,” Mr. O’Rourke said. “The people of Texas need to remember that. We don’t need troops on the border.” |
| Shortly after he spoke, The Associated Press reported that the first hundred troops had arrived at the border. | Shortly after he spoke, The Associated Press reported that the first hundred troops had arrived at the border. |
| Those kinds of comments are a key part of Mr. O’Rourke’s brand. Obsessed with authenticity, he is saying things — like defending the N.F.L. protests or pushing for gun control — that might seem out of step in deep-red Texas. | Those kinds of comments are a key part of Mr. O’Rourke’s brand. Obsessed with authenticity, he is saying things — like defending the N.F.L. protests or pushing for gun control — that might seem out of step in deep-red Texas. |
| A survey released this week by University of Texas/Texas Tribune found that a majority of Texas voters would immediately deport undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S., and that 45 percent believe the country admits more legal immigrants that it should. | A survey released this week by University of Texas/Texas Tribune found that a majority of Texas voters would immediately deport undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S., and that 45 percent believe the country admits more legal immigrants that it should. |
| And yes, before you start sending me polling cross tabs, Mr. O’Rourke faces an uphill climb to victory. | And yes, before you start sending me polling cross tabs, Mr. O’Rourke faces an uphill climb to victory. |
| But it’s also undeniable that the guy has built something unexpected in the Lone Star State. He gets thousands out to rallies in small towns. He’s rolling in money. There are T-shirts. Hats worn by celebrities. And even Halloween costumes. (So many Halloween costumes.) | But it’s also undeniable that the guy has built something unexpected in the Lone Star State. He gets thousands out to rallies in small towns. He’s rolling in money. There are T-shirts. Hats worn by celebrities. And even Halloween costumes. (So many Halloween costumes.) |
| He has a supporter list and bank account that are the envy of many Democrats now, and likely to become even more coveted as the party shifts its focus to the 2020 presidential race. | He has a supporter list and bank account that are the envy of many Democrats now, and likely to become even more coveted as the party shifts its focus to the 2020 presidential race. |
| Mr. O’Rourke’s brand of unabashed liberalism — a model embraced by Andrew Gillum, the nominee for governor in Florida, and, to a lesser extent, by Stacey Abrams, the nominee for governor in Georgia — tests whether, in the Trump era, the answer for Democrats can be found to the left. | Mr. O’Rourke’s brand of unabashed liberalism — a model embraced by Andrew Gillum, the nominee for governor in Florida, and, to a lesser extent, by Stacey Abrams, the nominee for governor in Georgia — tests whether, in the Trump era, the answer for Democrats can be found to the left. |
| It’s certainly a way to raise tons of money. But will it be enough to counteract a president who is willing to stoke his supporters’ biggest fears to drive them to the polls? We’ll know in five days. | It’s certainly a way to raise tons of money. But will it be enough to counteract a president who is willing to stoke his supporters’ biggest fears to drive them to the polls? We’ll know in five days. |
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| ____________________ | ____________________ |
| Midterms are always about the sitting president. And then there’s 2018: Though he’s not on the ballot, President Trump seems to be on everyone’s mind. Our colleagues from the Opinion Pages sent us this today: | Midterms are always about the sitting president. And then there’s 2018: Though he’s not on the ballot, President Trump seems to be on everyone’s mind. Our colleagues from the Opinion Pages sent us this today: |
| Following the recent horrific streak of terrorism, the president was caught between the roles of national conciliator and Republican partisan. Our opinion writers — left and right — agreed that, with eyes on Election Day, he too eagerly embraced the latter and not the former. | Following the recent horrific streak of terrorism, the president was caught between the roles of national conciliator and Republican partisan. Our opinion writers — left and right — agreed that, with eyes on Election Day, he too eagerly embraced the latter and not the former. |
| “How does a conservative movement that is supposed to believe that every healthy society needs powerful moral guardrails give itself over to a president whose every other utterance cheerfully knocks those guardrails down?” our columnist Bret Stephens wrote. | |
| If he failed as a conciliatory, did he deliver as a partisan? Ross Douthat is doubtful: “With a week to go the safest bet is that in returning to the same strategy he followed in 2016, Trump will earn — and deserve — a more disappointing political result,” he wrote. | If he failed as a conciliatory, did he deliver as a partisan? Ross Douthat is doubtful: “With a week to go the safest bet is that in returning to the same strategy he followed in 2016, Trump will earn — and deserve — a more disappointing political result,” he wrote. |
| Most people believe Republicans will hold the Senate. For the House, sitting presidents typically lose House seats, and this year appears to be no exception. | Most people believe Republicans will hold the Senate. For the House, sitting presidents typically lose House seats, and this year appears to be no exception. |
| At least in one area of the country, though, it’s actually not about the president’s rhetoric. The problem, Timothy P. Carney, the commentary editor of The Washington Examiner, wrote, is that Mr. Trump made Rust Belt voters “into Trump voters, but he never made them Republicans.” He sees potentially “brutal” results for the G.O.P. in the Midwest. | At least in one area of the country, though, it’s actually not about the president’s rhetoric. The problem, Timothy P. Carney, the commentary editor of The Washington Examiner, wrote, is that Mr. Trump made Rust Belt voters “into Trump voters, but he never made them Republicans.” He sees potentially “brutal” results for the G.O.P. in the Midwest. |
| We will all need a break from election season, Gail Collins wrote. The president’s “rhetorical high point probably came when he went to the synagogue where 11 people were murdered and didn’t say anything.” | We will all need a break from election season, Gail Collins wrote. The president’s “rhetorical high point probably came when he went to the synagogue where 11 people were murdered and didn’t say anything.” |
| By this time next week, the 2018 elections will be over. This weekend in Sunday Review, we are planning to run pieces looking ahead to 2020. President Trump is never far from the conversation. | By this time next week, the 2018 elections will be over. This weekend in Sunday Review, we are planning to run pieces looking ahead to 2020. President Trump is never far from the conversation. |
| Read more political writing from the Opinion section here. | Read more political writing from the Opinion section here. |
| ____________________ | ____________________ |
| As the election nears, The Times’s live polling project is talking to voters in some of the closest races. Today, Nate Cohn and the Upshot team highlighted a few polls happening right now: | As the election nears, The Times’s live polling project is talking to voters in some of the closest races. Today, Nate Cohn and the Upshot team highlighted a few polls happening right now: |
| Tom Malinowski’s eight-point lead against the moderate Republican incumbent Leonard Lance in New Jersey’s Seventh is probably the best Democratic showing in our polls this week. The district is a good bellwether for races in well-educated suburbs, and there are signs of a lot of G.O.P. defection. | Tom Malinowski’s eight-point lead against the moderate Republican incumbent Leonard Lance in New Jersey’s Seventh is probably the best Democratic showing in our polls this week. The district is a good bellwether for races in well-educated suburbs, and there are signs of a lot of G.O.P. defection. |
| We may know early on Election Day whether Democrats can excel beyond the suburbs and make inroads in Trump country. The polls close at 6 p.m. in Kentucky, and many eyes (and a needle) will be on Amy McGrath, a political newcomer and former fighter pilot with a widely shared campaign ad. We’re polling Kentucky’s Sixth again starting tonight. She trailed by one point in our poll in early September. | We may know early on Election Day whether Democrats can excel beyond the suburbs and make inroads in Trump country. The polls close at 6 p.m. in Kentucky, and many eyes (and a needle) will be on Amy McGrath, a political newcomer and former fighter pilot with a widely shared campaign ad. We’re polling Kentucky’s Sixth again starting tonight. She trailed by one point in our poll in early September. |
| You can see all our polling here. | You can see all our polling here. |
| ____________________ | ____________________ |
| • Our colleague Elizabeth Dias put out a call for young evangelicals to tell us about the relationship between their faith and their politics. Nearly 1,500 responded. Here are six, from across the political spectrum, in their own words. | • Our colleague Elizabeth Dias put out a call for young evangelicals to tell us about the relationship between their faith and their politics. Nearly 1,500 responded. Here are six, from across the political spectrum, in their own words. |
| • After amassing 67,000 acres of Nevada desert, a mysterious buyer has revealed his vision: a community based on the blockchain. Read the story. | • After amassing 67,000 acres of Nevada desert, a mysterious buyer has revealed his vision: a community based on the blockchain. Read the story. |
| • The trees of the Amazon rain forest take in a quarter of all the carbon absorbed by the planet each year. Brazil’s new president plans to allow rapid deforestation, New York magazine writes — potentially creating a climate change catastrophe. | • The trees of the Amazon rain forest take in a quarter of all the carbon absorbed by the planet each year. Brazil’s new president plans to allow rapid deforestation, New York magazine writes — potentially creating a climate change catastrophe. |
| ____________________ | ____________________ |
| And the winner of our First Annual On Politics Halloween Costume Contest is … | And the winner of our First Annual On Politics Halloween Costume Contest is … |
| Carter in California! He dressed as a “typical politician,” his mom, Sue, told us — complete with a fake belly and a big tie that she made for his costume. | Carter in California! He dressed as a “typical politician,” his mom, Sue, told us — complete with a fake belly and a big tie that she made for his costume. |
| “The final outfit included printouts of stupid/painful quotes from various politicians over the last 30 or so years, which he pinned all over his shirt,” Sue said. “Anyone want a 'potatoe’?” | “The final outfit included printouts of stupid/painful quotes from various politicians over the last 30 or so years, which he pinned all over his shirt,” Sue said. “Anyone want a 'potatoe’?” |
| Thanks to everyone who sent in photos! As a bonus, here are a few of our favorites that we spotted on social media: | Thanks to everyone who sent in photos! As a bonus, here are a few of our favorites that we spotted on social media: |
| _____________________ | _____________________ |
| Were you forwarded this newsletter? Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox. | Were you forwarded this newsletter? Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox. |
| Thanks for reading. Politics is more than what goes on inside the White House. On Politics brings you the people, issues and ideas reshaping our world. | Thanks for reading. Politics is more than what goes on inside the White House. On Politics brings you the people, issues and ideas reshaping our world. |
| Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. | Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. |
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