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On Politics With Lisa Lerer: Texas and the Big Picture In Texas, a Close-Up View of the Midterms
(35 minutes later)
Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host.Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host.
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Highland Park, Tex., is kind of like a red-state version of Berkeley.Highland Park, Tex., is kind of like a red-state version of Berkeley.
Some of President Trump’s biggest financial backers live here. It’s where George W. Bush goes to church and where Dick Cheney once lived. These are literally “country club Republicans” — attendees of the expansive 122-year-old Dallas Country Club that stands in the center of the neighborhood.Some of President Trump’s biggest financial backers live here. It’s where George W. Bush goes to church and where Dick Cheney once lived. These are literally “country club Republicans” — attendees of the expansive 122-year-old Dallas Country Club that stands in the center of the neighborhood.
But drive past the leafy mansions on Mockingbird Lane four days before Election Day and you see something interesting: Lawn signs for Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic candidate for Senate, sprinkled between ones for his Republican opponent, Ted Cruz.But drive past the leafy mansions on Mockingbird Lane four days before Election Day and you see something interesting: Lawn signs for Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic candidate for Senate, sprinkled between ones for his Republican opponent, Ted Cruz.
In the final days, much of the midterm election seems to have clarified around a central question: What is American identity?In the final days, much of the midterm election seems to have clarified around a central question: What is American identity?
In some ways, Mr. Trump’s divisive style meant this election would always be a referendum not simply on his presidency but on issues of race, gender and American values.In some ways, Mr. Trump’s divisive style meant this election would always be a referendum not simply on his presidency but on issues of race, gender and American values.
In the final weeks, a burst of identity-fueled violence — like the Pittsburgh synagogue massacre — and Mr. Trump’s decision to focus on a dark, anti-immigrant message have moved those emotionally charged questions to the center of the race, overshadowing other topics like health care and the economy.In the final weeks, a burst of identity-fueled violence — like the Pittsburgh synagogue massacre — and Mr. Trump’s decision to focus on a dark, anti-immigrant message have moved those emotionally charged questions to the center of the race, overshadowing other topics like health care and the economy.
That’s part of the reason that Republicans stand a decent chance of winning Senate seats in places Mr. Trump won, like Missouri, North Dakota, Arizona and Indiana, where the White House’s message fuels the G.O.P. base.That’s part of the reason that Republicans stand a decent chance of winning Senate seats in places Mr. Trump won, like Missouri, North Dakota, Arizona and Indiana, where the White House’s message fuels the G.O.P. base.
But discomfort with the president’s rhetoric among college-educated white voters, particularly women, is also part of the reason that Democrats have a shot of winning long-held Republican House seats in suburbs like Highland Park, which has been represented by the Republican Pete Sessions since 2002.But discomfort with the president’s rhetoric among college-educated white voters, particularly women, is also part of the reason that Democrats have a shot of winning long-held Republican House seats in suburbs like Highland Park, which has been represented by the Republican Pete Sessions since 2002.
Many voters, on both sides, say these midterms feel bigger than just another election. It feels, they say, like a fight to preserve their way of life.Many voters, on both sides, say these midterms feel bigger than just another election. It feels, they say, like a fight to preserve their way of life.
At a campaign rally Friday morning for Mr. Cruz, Ann Harbuck, 65, praised Mr. Trump’s use of the term “nationalist” to describe himself at a campaign rally last week. Critics say the term is coded language for racism and anti-Semitism, pointing to its association with far-right politics and fascism.At a campaign rally Friday morning for Mr. Cruz, Ann Harbuck, 65, praised Mr. Trump’s use of the term “nationalist” to describe himself at a campaign rally last week. Critics say the term is coded language for racism and anti-Semitism, pointing to its association with far-right politics and fascism.
“A nationalist is somebody who cares about our nation,” said Ms. Harbuck, a retired teacher.“A nationalist is somebody who cares about our nation,” said Ms. Harbuck, a retired teacher.
Ms. Harbuck and others at the event told me that they worried about illegal immigration, particularly a caravan of migrants many believed was just about to cross the U.S. border.Ms. Harbuck and others at the event told me that they worried about illegal immigration, particularly a caravan of migrants many believed was just about to cross the U.S. border.
“They say, ‘Oh, don’t worry about it, they’re two months away, a thousand miles,’ but those people are catching rides,” said Warren Fachner, 63, a disabled retiree. “I can’t believe the politicians that say the president is doing this as a stunt for ginning up the base.”“They say, ‘Oh, don’t worry about it, they’re two months away, a thousand miles,’ but those people are catching rides,” said Warren Fachner, 63, a disabled retiree. “I can’t believe the politicians that say the president is doing this as a stunt for ginning up the base.”
But, remember Mockingbird Lane? There were indications of that divide even here, among Mr. Cruz’s most loyal backers.But, remember Mockingbird Lane? There were indications of that divide even here, among Mr. Cruz’s most loyal backers.
Mr. Fachner, who attended the rally with his sister, said his wife was turned off by what she saw as Mr. Trump’s disrespectful treatment of the other candidates during the 2016 election. During the primaries, she voted on the Democratic ballot, telling him that she just didn’t like Mr. Trump.Mr. Fachner, who attended the rally with his sister, said his wife was turned off by what she saw as Mr. Trump’s disrespectful treatment of the other candidates during the 2016 election. During the primaries, she voted on the Democratic ballot, telling him that she just didn’t like Mr. Trump.
“It’s iffy whether she’s voting for Beto or not,” said his sister, Victoria Fachner, 62. “She doesn’t like when we talk politics.”“It’s iffy whether she’s voting for Beto or not,” said his sister, Victoria Fachner, 62. “She doesn’t like when we talk politics.”
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While I’m in Texas, I asked my most trusted source on campaign trail dining — our national political correspondent Jonathan Martin — where I should get a bite to eat. Here’s what he told me:While I’m in Texas, I asked my most trusted source on campaign trail dining — our national political correspondent Jonathan Martin — where I should get a bite to eat. Here’s what he told me:
I know what you’re thinking about: Texas’s BBQ.I know what you’re thinking about: Texas’s BBQ.
O.K., maybe it’s Texas’s Beto, but close enough for a segue about the Lone Star State product that most everybody can agree on, no matter their political tilt.O.K., maybe it’s Texas’s Beto, but close enough for a segue about the Lone Star State product that most everybody can agree on, no matter their political tilt.
So where to find the best brisket and sausage in Texas?So where to find the best brisket and sausage in Texas?
A very brief cheat sheet:A very brief cheat sheet:
• Austin: Black’s (if you want to wait longer: La Barbecue or Franklin’s)• Austin: Black’s (if you want to wait longer: La Barbecue or Franklin’s)
• Dallas: Pecan Lodge• Dallas: Pecan Lodge
• Houston: Gatlin’s or Burns• Houston: Gatlin’s or Burns
Got a beef with that? (Get it?) Come at me.Got a beef with that? (Get it?) Come at me.
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With less than a week until Election Day, 28 million ballots have been cast through early and absentee voting. That’s a lot: Four years ago, 27 million people voted early. We’ve already passed that, and we still have a whole weekend to go.With less than a week until Election Day, 28 million ballots have been cast through early and absentee voting. That’s a lot: Four years ago, 27 million people voted early. We’ve already passed that, and we still have a whole weekend to go.
An analysis by The Times’s graphics team breaks it all down here. Some interesting takeaways:An analysis by The Times’s graphics team breaks it all down here. Some interesting takeaways:
• 37 states, plus Washington, D.C., allow early voting. In half of those, early voting totals have already topped the early totals from 2014.• 37 states, plus Washington, D.C., allow early voting. In half of those, early voting totals have already topped the early totals from 2014.
• In Tennessee, early voting numbers are on the verge of surpassing the final vote count from 2014. Nevada is also getting close. (Both of those states have high-profile Senate races.)• In Tennessee, early voting numbers are on the verge of surpassing the final vote count from 2014. Nevada is also getting close. (Both of those states have high-profile Senate races.)
• Nearly 4 million votes were cast over just 10 days in Texas — about 85 percent of their final total from 2014.• Nearly 4 million votes were cast over just 10 days in Texas — about 85 percent of their final total from 2014.
• Even a few states without major competitive races, like Maryland and Louisiana, have surpassed their early voting numbers from the last midterms.• Even a few states without major competitive races, like Maryland and Louisiana, have surpassed their early voting numbers from the last midterms.
See the numbers for yourself.See the numbers for yourself.
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As the election nears, The Times’s live polling project is talking to voters in some of the closest races. Today, Nate Cohn and the Upshot team highlighted a few polls happening right now:As the election nears, The Times’s live polling project is talking to voters in some of the closest races. Today, Nate Cohn and the Upshot team highlighted a few polls happening right now:
If We Had More Time: We’ve run out of time to add new House polls. If we had another shot, which ones would we choose? South Carolina’s First, Washington’s Third and Michigan’s Sixth (everyone’s going on the air there with ads). On the Senate side? One more poll of Texas, just to see what’s going on since our last poll (Ted Cruz led Beto O’Rourke by eight points in that one in early October).If We Had More Time: We’ve run out of time to add new House polls. If we had another shot, which ones would we choose? South Carolina’s First, Washington’s Third and Michigan’s Sixth (everyone’s going on the air there with ads). On the Senate side? One more poll of Texas, just to see what’s going on since our last poll (Ted Cruz led Beto O’Rourke by eight points in that one in early October).
A Proxy Poll: We’re asking people in Georgia’s Sixth about their vote choice for governor. The district is a little to the left of the state as a whole, so if the Democrat Stacey Abrams isn’t leading, it won’t be a great sign for her. She’s leading by three points halfway through, but we’re expecting more Republican respondents in the second half of our poll.A Proxy Poll: We’re asking people in Georgia’s Sixth about their vote choice for governor. The district is a little to the left of the state as a whole, so if the Democrat Stacey Abrams isn’t leading, it won’t be a great sign for her. She’s leading by three points halfway through, but we’re expecting more Republican respondents in the second half of our poll.
Big Picture: There’s only a sliver of a difference between a very close election night and a gain of 40-plus Democratic House seats. So many super close races.Big Picture: There’s only a sliver of a difference between a very close election night and a gain of 40-plus Democratic House seats. So many super close races.
You can see all our polling here.You can see all our polling here.
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• This is the best time for the American labor market in at least 18 years. The Upshot looks at three questions that will determine how long it will last.• This is the best time for the American labor market in at least 18 years. The Upshot looks at three questions that will determine how long it will last.
• Young voters have a variety of causes this year: gun control, climate change, reproductive rights. Will they vote in big numbers? History says no.• Young voters have a variety of causes this year: gun control, climate change, reproductive rights. Will they vote in big numbers? History says no.
• A fascinating profile in The Washington Post of a Democrat in a West Virginia district where President Trump won 73 percent of the vote, and his campaign aide, who most recently worked as a cashier at a Family Dollar.• A fascinating profile in The Washington Post of a Democrat in a West Virginia district where President Trump won 73 percent of the vote, and his campaign aide, who most recently worked as a cashier at a Family Dollar.
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Eden Dranger, a comedy writer, tweeted this formula to find your personal campaign slogan: Your last name + “:” + the last text you sent.Eden Dranger, a comedy writer, tweeted this formula to find your personal campaign slogan: Your last name + “:” + the last text you sent.
Mine is “Lerer: That’s fine! the midterms are almost done.” Really!Mine is “Lerer: That’s fine! the midterms are almost done.” Really!
Tell us yours: onpolitics@nytimes.com.Tell us yours: onpolitics@nytimes.com.
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Thanks for reading. Politics is more than what goes on inside the White House. On Politics brings you the people, issues and ideas reshaping our world.Thanks for reading. Politics is more than what goes on inside the White House. On Politics brings you the people, issues and ideas reshaping our world.
Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.