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Four Questions for America’s Ugliest Campaign Four Questions for America’s Ugliest Campaign
(about 4 hours later)
NASHVILLE — When Phil Bredesen announced his candidacy for the Senate last fall, it put a previously abandoned Southern state in play for Democrats. It also led to one of the ugliest, most expensive races in the 2018 midterms.NASHVILLE — When Phil Bredesen announced his candidacy for the Senate last fall, it put a previously abandoned Southern state in play for Democrats. It also led to one of the ugliest, most expensive races in the 2018 midterms.
The race pits Mr. Bredesen, a popular former governor, against United States Representative Marsha Blackburn, a favorite of the Tea Party and President Trump. With just days to go and Ms. Blackburn only a few points ahead, one of the most divisive race in Tennessee history will be determined by the answers to four questions. The race pits Mr. Bredesen, a popular former governor, against United States Representative Marsha Blackburn, a favorite of the Tea Party and President Trump. With just days to go and Ms. Blackburn only a few points ahead, one of the most divisive races in Tennessee history will be determined by the answers to four questions.
Over the course of her 16-year career in the House, Ms. Blackburn has not exactly been a legislative force. She seems to prefer the bright lights of cable television appearances to the minutiae of passing laws. One area where she did spend some political capital, though, was on opioid legislation.Over the course of her 16-year career in the House, Ms. Blackburn has not exactly been a legislative force. She seems to prefer the bright lights of cable television appearances to the minutiae of passing laws. One area where she did spend some political capital, though, was on opioid legislation.
In 2016, Ms. Blackburn co-sponsored a bill that effectively limited the ability of the Drug Enforcement Administration to go after opioid manufacturers on large drug shipments. This came in spite of direct warnings from the D.E.A. that the legislation would hamper the agency’s efforts on a crisis that, notably, is killing Tennessee residents at a rate twice the national average.In 2016, Ms. Blackburn co-sponsored a bill that effectively limited the ability of the Drug Enforcement Administration to go after opioid manufacturers on large drug shipments. This came in spite of direct warnings from the D.E.A. that the legislation would hamper the agency’s efforts on a crisis that, notably, is killing Tennessee residents at a rate twice the national average.
Why did Ms. Blackburn take such a position? A supporter might argue that, like most Tea Party faithful, she is skeptical of government regulation. A cynic might respond that it’s because she has received more than $800,000 in campaign donations from the pharmaceutical lobby since 2002, more than from almost any other industry.Why did Ms. Blackburn take such a position? A supporter might argue that, like most Tea Party faithful, she is skeptical of government regulation. A cynic might respond that it’s because she has received more than $800,000 in campaign donations from the pharmaceutical lobby since 2002, more than from almost any other industry.
When it came time for final passage on a bill to fix the problem, Ms. Blackburn skipped the vote to campaign. But her record has provided Mr. Bredesen with months’ worth of material for attacks, and his punches seem to be landing, especially in opioid-ravaged areas of East Tennessee. If she loses by a slim margin, it will be fair to argue that opioids made the difference.When it came time for final passage on a bill to fix the problem, Ms. Blackburn skipped the vote to campaign. But her record has provided Mr. Bredesen with months’ worth of material for attacks, and his punches seem to be landing, especially in opioid-ravaged areas of East Tennessee. If she loses by a slim margin, it will be fair to argue that opioids made the difference.
Ms. Blackburn has seized upon the Central American migrant caravan as an issue, following President Trump’s lead by using it as a way to alarm base voters. Her latest ad breathlessly repeats claims, some already refuted, that the group is made up of “gang members, criminals and people from the Middle East.” It ends bluntly, “Stop the Caravan.”Ms. Blackburn has seized upon the Central American migrant caravan as an issue, following President Trump’s lead by using it as a way to alarm base voters. Her latest ad breathlessly repeats claims, some already refuted, that the group is made up of “gang members, criminals and people from the Middle East.” It ends bluntly, “Stop the Caravan.”
It is a way to nationalize a race that Mr. Bredesen would much prefer be about local issues, and above all about experience.It is a way to nationalize a race that Mr. Bredesen would much prefer be about local issues, and above all about experience.
In many ways, the Senate contest mirrors the state’s Republican primary for governor that was fought this summer. Diane Black, another House Republican, chose to emphasize national issues as well, promoting her support of the president’s tax cuts and efforts to build a wall on the Mexican border. She finished a distant third behind Bill Lee, the party’s nominee, in part because Republican voters were turned off by her constant ads about immigration.In many ways, the Senate contest mirrors the state’s Republican primary for governor that was fought this summer. Diane Black, another House Republican, chose to emphasize national issues as well, promoting her support of the president’s tax cuts and efforts to build a wall on the Mexican border. She finished a distant third behind Bill Lee, the party’s nominee, in part because Republican voters were turned off by her constant ads about immigration.
Could the same dynamic push wavering voters toward Mr. Bredesen? As Times reporting shows, there is a danger of alienating suburban voters with a constant stream of nationalist rhetoric about invading hordes and birthright citizenship.Could the same dynamic push wavering voters toward Mr. Bredesen? As Times reporting shows, there is a danger of alienating suburban voters with a constant stream of nationalist rhetoric about invading hordes and birthright citizenship.
The man these two candidates are running to replace, the Republican Senator Bob Corker, might agree. He told a crowd this week that the people in the caravan are “being tortured,” adding: “I have a feeling that if you were living in one of these Central American countries and you had little girls and little boys you’re raising you might be trying to figure out a way to come to the great U.S. of A.” Mr. Corker is just one man, but he’s also the sort of establishment Republican who rose to the Senate because his views so closely track those of most Tennesseans.The man these two candidates are running to replace, the Republican Senator Bob Corker, might agree. He told a crowd this week that the people in the caravan are “being tortured,” adding: “I have a feeling that if you were living in one of these Central American countries and you had little girls and little boys you’re raising you might be trying to figure out a way to come to the great U.S. of A.” Mr. Corker is just one man, but he’s also the sort of establishment Republican who rose to the Senate because his views so closely track those of most Tennesseans.
Still, this isn’t a race for governor, no matter how much Mr. Bredesen would like to make it about balanced budgets and rural internet access, two of his favorite issues. The winner may end up voting on a Supreme Court nominee, and Ms. Blackburn used the Brett Kavanaugh hearings — and a month of negative ads — to surge into an October lead in the polls. For weeks, she attacked Mr. Bredesen for not taking a position on the nomination, stoking fears among potential Republicans crossover voters that he would ensure a liberal court.Still, this isn’t a race for governor, no matter how much Mr. Bredesen would like to make it about balanced budgets and rural internet access, two of his favorite issues. The winner may end up voting on a Supreme Court nominee, and Ms. Blackburn used the Brett Kavanaugh hearings — and a month of negative ads — to surge into an October lead in the polls. For weeks, she attacked Mr. Bredesen for not taking a position on the nomination, stoking fears among potential Republicans crossover voters that he would ensure a liberal court.
When Mr. Bredesen finally issued a statement that he would have voted for Justice Kavanaugh — à la West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, another conservative Democrat in a very red state — he faced an immediate backlash in his own party. As early voting began, some progressive voters have chosen to write in “Believe Women” instead of Bredesen or Blackburn. In a close race, those votes may matter.When Mr. Bredesen finally issued a statement that he would have voted for Justice Kavanaugh — à la West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, another conservative Democrat in a very red state — he faced an immediate backlash in his own party. As early voting began, some progressive voters have chosen to write in “Believe Women” instead of Bredesen or Blackburn. In a close race, those votes may matter.
This race has been an assault on the senses. As of this past Thursday, the campaigns have raised $27 million on their own, while outside groups have spent another $51 million, mostly in the form of television ads. For a place that hasn’t had a close statewide election in the post-Citizens United era, the effect can be numbing.This race has been an assault on the senses. As of this past Thursday, the campaigns have raised $27 million on their own, while outside groups have spent another $51 million, mostly in the form of television ads. For a place that hasn’t had a close statewide election in the post-Citizens United era, the effect can be numbing.
When viewers turn on the nightly news or other programming on a local station, they will sometimes get three or four ads stacked on top of each other. This might be standard practice in a state like Ohio, but in Tennessee it’s a new experience. It has even prompted charges of collusion between the Blackburn campaign and super PACs controlled by Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, and the Koch brothers. Tennessee Citizen Action, a liberal advocacy group, filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission in August, noting that Ms. Blackburn’s chief strategist, Ward Baker, has significant ties to the PACs. It assured supporters this summer that independent expenditure groups would be getting into the race.When viewers turn on the nightly news or other programming on a local station, they will sometimes get three or four ads stacked on top of each other. This might be standard practice in a state like Ohio, but in Tennessee it’s a new experience. It has even prompted charges of collusion between the Blackburn campaign and super PACs controlled by Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, and the Koch brothers. Tennessee Citizen Action, a liberal advocacy group, filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission in August, noting that Ms. Blackburn’s chief strategist, Ward Baker, has significant ties to the PACs. It assured supporters this summer that independent expenditure groups would be getting into the race.
How voter exhaustion breaks for either candidate is anyone’s guess, but the role of outside Republican money has been a Democratic talking point, an attempt to counter Ms. Blackburn’s strategy of nationalizing the race. If it works, and voters decide that Ms. Blackburn’s outside money is somehow worse than Mr. Bredesen’s, he might see a boost at the polls.How voter exhaustion breaks for either candidate is anyone’s guess, but the role of outside Republican money has been a Democratic talking point, an attempt to counter Ms. Blackburn’s strategy of nationalizing the race. If it works, and voters decide that Ms. Blackburn’s outside money is somehow worse than Mr. Bredesen’s, he might see a boost at the polls.
One of the big reasons Ms. Blackburn has had trouble pulling away from Mr. Bredesen is his long-established reputation as a moderate and consensus builder; he was a popular mayor of Nashville, and then a popular governor, and many Republicans have voted for him in the past. The message he’s pushed in ads has been simple and personal. He uses the phrase “I’m applying for the job,” because he wants voters to look at qualifications more than ideology.One of the big reasons Ms. Blackburn has had trouble pulling away from Mr. Bredesen is his long-established reputation as a moderate and consensus builder; he was a popular mayor of Nashville, and then a popular governor, and many Republicans have voted for him in the past. The message he’s pushed in ads has been simple and personal. He uses the phrase “I’m applying for the job,” because he wants voters to look at qualifications more than ideology.
In the South, however, conservative Democrats have found themselves without a home (or, increasingly, a job) as both main political parties have moved away from the center. Tennessee is no exception, and as the state has become increasingly urban, Mr. Bredesen’s own party has become more progressive — while the suburbs have become more conservative. Nationally, Democrats have found a winning message in health care and fighting to preserve protections for pre-existing conditions. But Mr. Bredesen, a critic of Obamacare, has been reluctant to embrace its more popular provisions.In the South, however, conservative Democrats have found themselves without a home (or, increasingly, a job) as both main political parties have moved away from the center. Tennessee is no exception, and as the state has become increasingly urban, Mr. Bredesen’s own party has become more progressive — while the suburbs have become more conservative. Nationally, Democrats have found a winning message in health care and fighting to preserve protections for pre-existing conditions. But Mr. Bredesen, a critic of Obamacare, has been reluctant to embrace its more popular provisions.
Now with most polls showing him trailing, Mr. Bredesen will have to thread a needle, hoping for a big turnout from a Democratic base angry with the president — a base he has deliberately not engaged — while still appearing moderate enough to peel off independent and Republican votes from Ms. Blackburn. It’s a tough ask, but one Bredesen staffers say is possible. Their internal polls have shown the race to be within a percentage point for a month.Now with most polls showing him trailing, Mr. Bredesen will have to thread a needle, hoping for a big turnout from a Democratic base angry with the president — a base he has deliberately not engaged — while still appearing moderate enough to peel off independent and Republican votes from Ms. Blackburn. It’s a tough ask, but one Bredesen staffers say is possible. Their internal polls have shown the race to be within a percentage point for a month.
On Thursday, the last day for early voting, many polling sites reported heavy turnout. In southeastern Davidson County, one of the most diverse parts of the Metro Nashville area, voters were still in line two hours after the polls at the Southeast Public Library were supposed to close.On Thursday, the last day for early voting, many polling sites reported heavy turnout. In southeastern Davidson County, one of the most diverse parts of the Metro Nashville area, voters were still in line two hours after the polls at the Southeast Public Library were supposed to close.
It appears that many Tennesseans are ready to answer these questions.It appears that many Tennesseans are ready to answer these questions.
Steve Cavendish, a freelance journalist in Nashville, is the former editor of The Washington City Paper and The Nashville Scene.Steve Cavendish, a freelance journalist in Nashville, is the former editor of The Washington City Paper and The Nashville Scene.
Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.