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What Is the Needle? What Is the Needle?
(about 3 hours later)
The needle is one way of following election results. House is here; Senate is here.The needle is one way of following election results. House is here; Senate is here.
[Get live election analysis and all our real-time results.]
We expect to turn it on after votes have been counted in some early-reporting races, probably in Kentucky, Indiana and Virginia. We may have enough votes to begin around 7:30 or 8 p.m. Eastern time.We expect to turn it on after votes have been counted in some early-reporting races, probably in Kentucky, Indiana and Virginia. We may have enough votes to begin around 7:30 or 8 p.m. Eastern time.
One needle will show our confidence that Democrats or Republicans will control the House of Representatives. Another will show the range of seats that each party could plausibly hold, while a third will show our estimate of the final national popular vote. We’ll also have needles showing our confidence that Democrats or Republicans will control the Senate and the likeliest numbers of seats for each party in that chamber. Details on the races behind the overall numbers will also be available.One needle will show our confidence that Democrats or Republicans will control the House of Representatives. Another will show the range of seats that each party could plausibly hold, while a third will show our estimate of the final national popular vote. We’ll also have needles showing our confidence that Democrats or Republicans will control the Senate and the likeliest numbers of seats for each party in that chamber. Details on the races behind the overall numbers will also be available.
Our forecasts use past results, initial returns and, to a small degree, results for candidates in similar places where votes have been reported. We’ve written in more detail here about how earlier election night needles worked, and how they can be “wrong.”Our forecasts use past results, initial returns and, to a small degree, results for candidates in similar places where votes have been reported. We’ve written in more detail here about how earlier election night needles worked, and how they can be “wrong.”
No. Ninety percent means nine out of 10.No. Ninety percent means nine out of 10.
No. The needle does not project winners.No. The needle does not project winners.
In some parts of the country, early voters and Election Day voters are very different. When a county reports all of its early votes in one large batch, the results may not mean what you think they do. Additionally, rural areas and urban ones often report at different times. And “100 percent of precincts reporting” is no guarantee that anything like 100 percent of votes have been counted. In many places — including those with lots of mail voting, but also others — a significant number of votes will be counted after that point. Data is messy.In some parts of the country, early voters and Election Day voters are very different. When a county reports all of its early votes in one large batch, the results may not mean what you think they do. Additionally, rural areas and urban ones often report at different times. And “100 percent of precincts reporting” is no guarantee that anything like 100 percent of votes have been counted. In many places — including those with lots of mail voting, but also others — a significant number of votes will be counted after that point. Data is messy.
No. The needle merely reflects our understanding of something that has already happened. The probability needles are measures of uncertainty. We will be highly uncertain in close races until some votes have been counted, well after polls close in those races.No. The needle merely reflects our understanding of something that has already happened. The probability needles are measures of uncertainty. We will be highly uncertain in close races until some votes have been counted, well after polls close in those races.
Sure. (Or you could never look.) But if you’re going to follow live election results, we think you might as well do so with the benefit of context.Sure. (Or you could never look.) But if you’re going to follow live election results, we think you might as well do so with the benefit of context.