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| The long and winding road to Brexit: how did we get here? | The long and winding road to Brexit: how did we get here? |
| (17 days later) | |
| The road to Brexit has been long, has already seen one prime minister fall by the wayside – and may yet account for the career of another. Theresa May, however, believes she has found a formula she can use to get an exit deal past her cabinet, her party, and the party she relies on – the Democratic Unionist party – to prop up her government. And not only them, but parliament and the European Union as well. | The road to Brexit has been long, has already seen one prime minister fall by the wayside – and may yet account for the career of another. Theresa May, however, believes she has found a formula she can use to get an exit deal past her cabinet, her party, and the party she relies on – the Democratic Unionist party – to prop up her government. And not only them, but parliament and the European Union as well. |
| Brexit: May tells her cabinet, this is the deal – now back me | |
| But – whether the prime minster succeeds or fails – how have we got to this point? | But – whether the prime minster succeeds or fails – how have we got to this point? |
| The UK votes for Brexit and gets a new prime minister – June-July 2016 | The UK votes for Brexit and gets a new prime minister – June-July 2016 |
| After a fractious referendum campaign, the country votes by 51.9% to 48.1% to leave the European Union. David Cameron, who called the referendum partly for party political reasons and campaigned to remain, resigns. | After a fractious referendum campaign, the country votes by 51.9% to 48.1% to leave the European Union. David Cameron, who called the referendum partly for party political reasons and campaigned to remain, resigns. |
| That leaves the way open for May, who also backed remain, to become prime minister and take on the job of pushing through Brexit in one form or another. | That leaves the way open for May, who also backed remain, to become prime minister and take on the job of pushing through Brexit in one form or another. |
| ‘Brexit means Brexit’ – but what does that mean? – July 2016-January 2017 | ‘Brexit means Brexit’ – but what does that mean? – July 2016-January 2017 |
| Just what sort of plan May favours becomes the object of intense debate as she campaigns for the leadership of her party. Initially, she offers little clarity, leading with the now famous phrase: “Brexit means Brexit”. | Just what sort of plan May favours becomes the object of intense debate as she campaigns for the leadership of her party. Initially, she offers little clarity, leading with the now famous phrase: “Brexit means Brexit”. |
| Moment of reckoning arrives as PM tries to sell Brexit deal to cabinet | |
| While that was somewhat opaque, May later adopts the language of the hard Brexit supporters, declaring no deal to be “better than a bad deal”. By then, she had already placed issues such as stricter immigration controls and leaving the jurisdiction of the European court of justice, incompatible with a soft Brexit, high on her list of priorities. | While that was somewhat opaque, May later adopts the language of the hard Brexit supporters, declaring no deal to be “better than a bad deal”. By then, she had already placed issues such as stricter immigration controls and leaving the jurisdiction of the European court of justice, incompatible with a soft Brexit, high on her list of priorities. |
| ‘Enemies of the people’ – November 2016 | ‘Enemies of the people’ – November 2016 |
| Whatever form May felt Brexit should take, she is told she does not have the right to simply ram it through. Three high court judges decide in favour of Gina Miller and others, who had argued that parliament must be consulted before the formal notification of the country’s decision to leave was sent. | Whatever form May felt Brexit should take, she is told she does not have the right to simply ram it through. Three high court judges decide in favour of Gina Miller and others, who had argued that parliament must be consulted before the formal notification of the country’s decision to leave was sent. |
| Rightwing papers attack the judges as “enemies of the people”, saying they are trying to stop Brexit and attack Miller personally. The supreme court later agrees with the high court judges’ decision. | Rightwing papers attack the judges as “enemies of the people”, saying they are trying to stop Brexit and attack Miller personally. The supreme court later agrees with the high court judges’ decision. |
| May sets out her vision – January 2017 | May sets out her vision – January 2017 |
| In a speech at Lancaster House, the prime minister seeks to make clear what sort of Brexit she wants. She says the UK must leave the single market – not least because she wants to end freedom of movement and leave the jurisdiction of the European court of justice, which are prerequisites of membership. | In a speech at Lancaster House, the prime minister seeks to make clear what sort of Brexit she wants. She says the UK must leave the single market – not least because she wants to end freedom of movement and leave the jurisdiction of the European court of justice, which are prerequisites of membership. |
| She is less clear about whether or not the UK should maintain its customs union with the rest of the EU, appearing to indicate she will be happy to do so on a case-by-case basis. Among other proposals, she also backs an “implementation period” to avoid a “cliff-edge” transition when the UK leaves. | She is less clear about whether or not the UK should maintain its customs union with the rest of the EU, appearing to indicate she will be happy to do so on a case-by-case basis. Among other proposals, she also backs an “implementation period” to avoid a “cliff-edge” transition when the UK leaves. |
| Brexit formally begins – March 2017 | Brexit formally begins – March 2017 |
| A letter signed by the prime minister is hand-delivered to the European council president, Donald Tusk, on 29 March, notifying him that the UK will trigger article 50 of the Lisbon treaty and leave the EU after May secures parliamentary support. | A letter signed by the prime minister is hand-delivered to the European council president, Donald Tusk, on 29 March, notifying him that the UK will trigger article 50 of the Lisbon treaty and leave the EU after May secures parliamentary support. |
| May loses her majority and deals with the DUP – June 2017 | May loses her majority and deals with the DUP – June 2017 |
| Less than a month after triggering article 50 – and with the first round of UK-EU talks looming, the prime minister seeks to strengthen her hand by calling a general election, having previously insisted she would not do so. | Less than a month after triggering article 50 – and with the first round of UK-EU talks looming, the prime minister seeks to strengthen her hand by calling a general election, having previously insisted she would not do so. |
| May runs a presidential-style campaign, with her own “strong and stable” leadership placed front and centre. She asks the country to back her and her “team” but loses her majority and has to rely on a confidence and supply deal with the hard Brexit-backing Democratic Unionist party, secured with £1bn in funding and relaxed spending rules, to help her remain in Downing Street. | May runs a presidential-style campaign, with her own “strong and stable” leadership placed front and centre. She asks the country to back her and her “team” but loses her majority and has to rely on a confidence and supply deal with the hard Brexit-backing Democratic Unionist party, secured with £1bn in funding and relaxed spending rules, to help her remain in Downing Street. |
| Two-year transition and the UK will pay, May says – September 2017 | Two-year transition and the UK will pay, May says – September 2017 |
| In a major speech delivered in Florence, May says the transition period previously floated would probably last about two years and acknowledges the UK will have to honour its financial commitments to the EU. | In a major speech delivered in Florence, May says the transition period previously floated would probably last about two years and acknowledges the UK will have to honour its financial commitments to the EU. |
| Only about two months previously, the then foreign secretary Boris Johnson had said EU leaders could “go whistle” if they thought the UK would pay an “extortionate” divorce bill. | Only about two months previously, the then foreign secretary Boris Johnson had said EU leaders could “go whistle” if they thought the UK would pay an “extortionate” divorce bill. |
| Withdrawal agreement reached – December 2017 | Withdrawal agreement reached – December 2017 |
| EU leaders say enough progress has been made on the main issues around the UK’s withdrawal to allow the talks to move on to what the future relationship between the two will look like. | EU leaders say enough progress has been made on the main issues around the UK’s withdrawal to allow the talks to move on to what the future relationship between the two will look like. |
| EU leaders agree to move on to the second phase of #Brexit talks. Congratulations PM @theresa_may | EU leaders agree to move on to the second phase of #Brexit talks. Congratulations PM @theresa_may |
| Issues still remain over what will happen to the border between the UK and the Republic of Ireland, though the agreement includes a “backstop” deal that will see the UK tied to the single market’s rules if no agreement can be reached in order to avoid a hard border. Its harshest critics include the DUP, upon whom May relies. | Issues still remain over what will happen to the border between the UK and the Republic of Ireland, though the agreement includes a “backstop” deal that will see the UK tied to the single market’s rules if no agreement can be reached in order to avoid a hard border. Its harshest critics include the DUP, upon whom May relies. |
| ‘We all need to face up to some hard facts’ – March 2018 | ‘We all need to face up to some hard facts’ – March 2018 |
| May goes further than she has before in acknowledging the “hard facts” of Brexit, admitting that leaving the single market, which she still proposes, will necessarily mean restricted access to foreign markets. She reiterates that her priorities for a new relationship include restricting immigration, but also opens up areas of potential compromise during her speech at Mansion House. | May goes further than she has before in acknowledging the “hard facts” of Brexit, admitting that leaving the single market, which she still proposes, will necessarily mean restricted access to foreign markets. She reiterates that her priorities for a new relationship include restricting immigration, but also opens up areas of potential compromise during her speech at Mansion House. |
| Countdown to Brexit: key dates for EU and UK talks | |
| It is met with a lukewarm response in Brussels, where the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, highlights that, while May has finally provided some clarity over what the UK wants following allegations it was pursuing a “have your cake and eat it” strategy, she had also been forced to recognise the inherent trade-offs. | It is met with a lukewarm response in Brussels, where the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, highlights that, while May has finally provided some clarity over what the UK wants following allegations it was pursuing a “have your cake and eat it” strategy, she had also been forced to recognise the inherent trade-offs. |
| I welcome PM @theresa_may speech. Clarity about #UK leaving Single Market and Customs Union & recognition of trade-offs will inform #EUCO guidelines re: future FTA. | I welcome PM @theresa_may speech. Clarity about #UK leaving Single Market and Customs Union & recognition of trade-offs will inform #EUCO guidelines re: future FTA. |
| Chequers and check-outs – July 2018 | Chequers and check-outs – July 2018 |
| May calls the cabinet to an away day at her country residence, Chequers, where she pushes them all to back her Brexit plan. The Chequers plan includes a proposal for a “common rule book” between the UK and the EU and is backed by the cabinet, albeit reluctantly in some cases. Tory hard Brexit supporters, however, believe it hands too much power to Brussels. | May calls the cabinet to an away day at her country residence, Chequers, where she pushes them all to back her Brexit plan. The Chequers plan includes a proposal for a “common rule book” between the UK and the EU and is backed by the cabinet, albeit reluctantly in some cases. Tory hard Brexit supporters, however, believe it hands too much power to Brussels. |
| Within two days, her Brexit secretary, David Davis, recanted and resigned – as did Johnson, among others. | Within two days, her Brexit secretary, David Davis, recanted and resigned – as did Johnson, among others. |
| May’s Salzburg humiliation – September 2018 | May’s Salzburg humiliation – September 2018 |
| The prime minister goes to Salzburg hoping to win over some of the EU’s leaders. But she leaves humiliated, having been told – very publicly – that her plan was not acceptable and that she would have to come up with a solution to the lingering Irish border question within a timeframe she had already indicated was too short. | The prime minister goes to Salzburg hoping to win over some of the EU’s leaders. But she leaves humiliated, having been told – very publicly – that her plan was not acceptable and that she would have to come up with a solution to the lingering Irish border question within a timeframe she had already indicated was too short. |
| Draft deal reached. The end of the road? – November 2018 | Draft deal reached. The end of the road? – November 2018 |
| With time running out to reach a deal, and with yet another minister – Jo Johnson – having quit feeling unable to support May’s approach, the negotiating teams from Brussels and London draw up a draft agreement. Nearly two and a half years after the vote to leave the EU, the prime minister may think it is the end of an arduous journey. | With time running out to reach a deal, and with yet another minister – Jo Johnson – having quit feeling unable to support May’s approach, the negotiating teams from Brussels and London draw up a draft agreement. Nearly two and a half years after the vote to leave the EU, the prime minister may think it is the end of an arduous journey. |
| But, as May invites ministers to review the plan one-by-one and prominent figures across all parties – and on both sides of the Brexit question line up to attack the provisions it is thought to contain, it appears she still has a way to go. | But, as May invites ministers to review the plan one-by-one and prominent figures across all parties – and on both sides of the Brexit question line up to attack the provisions it is thought to contain, it appears she still has a way to go. |
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