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Brexit: May to hold press conference as Rees-Mogg calls for vote of no confidence – Politics live Brexit: May to hold press conference as Rees-Mogg calls for vote of no confidence – Politics live
(35 minutes later)
Sky Data have also released some polling.
The bad news for Theresa May is that, of the three options that she says are open to the country (at least, the three options she mentioned in her statement last night - in the Commons today she was claiming no Brexit was not an option), her deal is the last popular. Staying in the EU would be the most popular, suggesting it would win comfortably if the government were to hold a three-option referendum of the type favoured by Justine Greening.
But the good news is that, despite thinking her plan is rubbish, Britons still trust May to lead the country through Brexit more than any of the obvious alternatives, the poll suggests.
(An important point to remember about public opinion is that people are quite capable of believing things that are contradictory.)
New @skydata poll:Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?No Brexit 54%No deal 32%Her deal 14%
Second @Skydata poll q: Would you support or oppose a referendum choosing between the draft Brexit deal proposed by Theresa May, Brexit without a deal, or remaining in the EU?Strongly support 44%Tend to support 11%Tend to oppose 7%Strongly oppose 28%Don’t know 10%
Third @skydata q: Who would you most trust to lead the country through Brexit? Theresa May 31%Jeremy Corbyn 25%Jacob Rees-Mogg 18%Boris Johnson 17%Dominic Raab 10%
Full results of today's @skydata Brexit poll. 1488 people polled today. https://t.co/f05T1DkKPi
YouGov has released some polling on Theresa May’s Brexit deal. The details are here, but these tweets show the key results. By a margin of two to one, Britons oppose the deal, the poll suggests - although 39% of respondents said they did not know.
(During her Commons statement Theresa May seemed to question the validity of any polling at this point, given that the 500-page text of the deal was only released last night.)
The British public does not back Theresa May's Brexit dealSupport - 19%Oppose - 42%Don't know - 39% 42% of Leave voters oppose the deal, as do 47% of Remain votershttps://t.co/DLVwqFaB0x pic.twitter.com/Lch2F0ICgy
44% of Britons think a better Brexit deal is possible. Only 19% think that what Theresa May has achieved is the best that could have been negotiatedhttps://t.co/DLVwqFaB0x pic.twitter.com/bWwWjPKVjD
At a press conference in Brussels Donald Tusk, president of the European council, restated his desire for Brexit to be abandoned. He told journalists:
The EU is prepared for a final deal with the United Kingdom in November.
We are also prepared for a no-deal scenario but of course we are best prepared for a no-Brexit scenario.
Here is a graphic comparing cabinet resignations under David Cameron with resignations under Theresa May.Here is a graphic comparing cabinet resignations under David Cameron with resignations under Theresa May.
Of the seven Tories have have resigned today (see 4.05pm), only one, Shailesh Vara, voted remain in 2016. Friends of Vara said that while he may have voted to remain in the referendum, he is now a leave supporter. He has changed his mind because of the way that the EU has behaved since the EU referendum.Of the seven Tories have have resigned today (see 4.05pm), only one, Shailesh Vara, voted remain in 2016. Friends of Vara said that while he may have voted to remain in the referendum, he is now a leave supporter. He has changed his mind because of the way that the EU has behaved since the EU referendum.
They say he resigned on principle and did so because of a loss of sovereignty and the inability to leave the customs union without EU permission.They say he resigned on principle and did so because of a loss of sovereignty and the inability to leave the customs union without EU permission.
“He had no choice. He loved the job in Northern Ireland but needed to be able to believe in this plan. He just couldn’t,” the source said.“He had no choice. He loved the job in Northern Ireland but needed to be able to believe in this plan. He just couldn’t,” the source said.
Under first David Cameron, and then Theresa May, the so-called “payroll vote” - MPs who are not in the government, but who have official jobs that mean that are obliged to be loyal - has expanded. There are more parliamentary private secretaries (PPSs) than there used to be. In January Theresa May appointed nine Conservative vice chairs, in addition to the four already in place. And the government has also a ludicrously large number of “trade envoys” - all of whom, presumably, get free travel to interesting places.Under first David Cameron, and then Theresa May, the so-called “payroll vote” - MPs who are not in the government, but who have official jobs that mean that are obliged to be loyal - has expanded. There are more parliamentary private secretaries (PPSs) than there used to be. In January Theresa May appointed nine Conservative vice chairs, in addition to the four already in place. And the government has also a ludicrously large number of “trade envoys” - all of whom, presumably, get free travel to interesting places.
But the downside of appointing more people to spurious jobs is that the more people there are who can resign. This afternoon the Conservative MP Rehman Chishti has done just that. Chishti, a leave voter in 2016, was a Conservative vice chair and a trade envoy, but he has quit both roles, partly because he sees the Brexit plan as a betrayal of the Conservative manifesto pledge to leave the customs union. He also thinks the government should be doing more to help Asia Bibi.But the downside of appointing more people to spurious jobs is that the more people there are who can resign. This afternoon the Conservative MP Rehman Chishti has done just that. Chishti, a leave voter in 2016, was a Conservative vice chair and a trade envoy, but he has quit both roles, partly because he sees the Brexit plan as a betrayal of the Conservative manifesto pledge to leave the customs union. He also thinks the government should be doing more to help Asia Bibi.
That means seven Tory MPs have now resigned from government or party roles today. See 12.55pm.That means seven Tory MPs have now resigned from government or party roles today. See 12.55pm.
My letter of resignation sent to PM @theresa_may stepping down as Vice Chairman @Conservatives & PM Trade Envoy to Pakistan. 1. Cannot support Draft EU Withdrawal Agreement. 2. Very disappointed by lack of leadership shown by UK Gov to do morally right thing in Asia Bibi Case. pic.twitter.com/hcaxba1hJrMy letter of resignation sent to PM @theresa_may stepping down as Vice Chairman @Conservatives & PM Trade Envoy to Pakistan. 1. Cannot support Draft EU Withdrawal Agreement. 2. Very disappointed by lack of leadership shown by UK Gov to do morally right thing in Asia Bibi Case. pic.twitter.com/hcaxba1hJr
Theresa May will hold a press conference at 5pm, Guido Fawkes’ Tom Harwood reports.Theresa May will hold a press conference at 5pm, Guido Fawkes’ Tom Harwood reports.
PM to give press conference at 1700.PM to give press conference at 1700.
May had been planning to give a press conference yesterday to discuss the deal, and so this is not unexpected. It does not (necessarily) mean that May is planning some shock announcement.May had been planning to give a press conference yesterday to discuss the deal, and so this is not unexpected. It does not (necessarily) mean that May is planning some shock announcement.
The Scottish government has declared that Theresa May’s Brexit deal is “essentially dead”. In a statement Michael Russell, the Scottish constitutional relations secretary, said:The Scottish government has declared that Theresa May’s Brexit deal is “essentially dead”. In a statement Michael Russell, the Scottish constitutional relations secretary, said:
Brexit isn’t a better future - it is a backward step into an imagined past. We must acknowledge that this deal is unacceptable to Scotland and her citizens. It therefore cannot be supported by this government.Brexit isn’t a better future - it is a backward step into an imagined past. We must acknowledge that this deal is unacceptable to Scotland and her citizens. It therefore cannot be supported by this government.
This deal is the inevitable result of a series of self-imposed draconian red lines. It is now essentially dead.This deal is the inevitable result of a series of self-imposed draconian red lines. It is now essentially dead.
Russell also said that, if the Brexit plan gets agreed by the EU at a summit on Sunday 25 November, MSPs will vote on it before the vote in the House of Commons.Russell also said that, if the Brexit plan gets agreed by the EU at a summit on Sunday 25 November, MSPs will vote on it before the vote in the House of Commons.
A vote in the Scottish parliament would not have any impact on the deal, but it would enable the SNP to demonstrate the extent of Scotland’s opposition to the plan.A vote in the Scottish parliament would not have any impact on the deal, but it would enable the SNP to demonstrate the extent of Scotland’s opposition to the plan.
The Telegraph’s Steven Swinford says Michael Gove, the environment secretary, is telling Theresa May that he will only take the Brexit secretary job if he can renegotiate the deal.The Telegraph’s Steven Swinford says Michael Gove, the environment secretary, is telling Theresa May that he will only take the Brexit secretary job if he can renegotiate the deal.
EXCLUSIVE:Michael Gove will ONLY become Theresa May's Brexit Secretary if he can renegotiate her deal and the November 25 EU summit is scrapped.And he is STILL weighing up whether to quit Cabinet...https://t.co/2ccBDfR22DEXCLUSIVE:Michael Gove will ONLY become Theresa May's Brexit Secretary if he can renegotiate her deal and the November 25 EU summit is scrapped.And he is STILL weighing up whether to quit Cabinet...https://t.co/2ccBDfR22D
It could be time to brush up on “Norway for Now”. (See 10.29am.)It could be time to brush up on “Norway for Now”. (See 10.29am.)
On the subject of “Norway for Now” (a plan for the UK to stay in the EEA after Brexit, like Norway, with a view to moving to a Canada-style relationship later), it is worth pointing out that Nick Boles, the Gove ally who has been pushing the idea, recently suggested in a Sunday Times article (paywall) that “now” could actually mean “for ever”. He wrote:On the subject of “Norway for Now” (a plan for the UK to stay in the EEA after Brexit, like Norway, with a view to moving to a Canada-style relationship later), it is worth pointing out that Nick Boles, the Gove ally who has been pushing the idea, recently suggested in a Sunday Times article (paywall) that “now” could actually mean “for ever”. He wrote:
So we would need to reassure the other Efta states that we are open to the full range of possibilities for our future relationship, and that one of those might include the evolution of the EEA agreement for the benefit of the other Efta states as well as the UK.So we would need to reassure the other Efta states that we are open to the full range of possibilities for our future relationship, and that one of those might include the evolution of the EEA agreement for the benefit of the other Efta states as well as the UK.
Europe is changing. Tensions are rising between newer members on the periphery and the founder members who signed the Treaty of Rome. President Emmanuel Macron of France wants to create a Europe of concentric circles. Within a few years, Germany will have new leadership and at least two of the candidates to replace the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, have expressed support for reform. With Europe, and the EU, in flux, it makes sense for the UK, having left the EU, to keep its options open. The crucial advantage of membership of the EEA and Efta is that it would put us in a strong position in Europe’s outer ring.Europe is changing. Tensions are rising between newer members on the periphery and the founder members who signed the Treaty of Rome. President Emmanuel Macron of France wants to create a Europe of concentric circles. Within a few years, Germany will have new leadership and at least two of the candidates to replace the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, have expressed support for reform. With Europe, and the EU, in flux, it makes sense for the UK, having left the EU, to keep its options open. The crucial advantage of membership of the EEA and Efta is that it would put us in a strong position in Europe’s outer ring.
Sheryll Murray, a Conservative Brexiter, says she has written to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee, calling for a confidence vote.Sheryll Murray, a Conservative Brexiter, says she has written to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee, calling for a confidence vote.
I have lost confidence in the Brexit policy of the Prime Minister and have therefore written to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee asking for a vote to take place over her Leadership. pic.twitter.com/dvrJiIAMACI have lost confidence in the Brexit policy of the Prime Minister and have therefore written to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee asking for a vote to take place over her Leadership. pic.twitter.com/dvrJiIAMAC
The conventional wisdom at Westminster is that Brexiter Tory MPs have nowhere near the numbers they need (158) to defeat Theresa May in a confidence vote. But ITV’s Robert Peston thinks the anti-May vote would be higher than expected.The conventional wisdom at Westminster is that Brexiter Tory MPs have nowhere near the numbers they need (158) to defeat Theresa May in a confidence vote. But ITV’s Robert Peston thinks the anti-May vote would be higher than expected.
For what it's worth, I can't find a Tory MP who thinks the 48 no-confidence letters aren't already with the 1922's Brady. And surprising people are telling me they will vote against her, if (when?) it comes to itFor what it's worth, I can't find a Tory MP who thinks the 48 no-confidence letters aren't already with the 1922's Brady. And surprising people are telling me they will vote against her, if (when?) it comes to it
So what does the ongoing crisis about Theresa May’s Brexit deal mean for the prospects of a second independence referendum in Scotland? Nicola Sturgeon had been due to update her party on her plans for a second referendum this autumn – but autumn is turning into winter and the most recent form of words, used at SNP conference last month, was that she must wait until after “the fog of Brexit” had cleared.So what does the ongoing crisis about Theresa May’s Brexit deal mean for the prospects of a second independence referendum in Scotland? Nicola Sturgeon had been due to update her party on her plans for a second referendum this autumn – but autumn is turning into winter and the most recent form of words, used at SNP conference last month, was that she must wait until after “the fog of Brexit” had cleared.
At FMQs this lunchtime, Sturgeon insisted that Brexit makes the case for independence grow stronger every day, and she certainly appeared to suggest she’d offer an update to Holyrood after the meaningful vote in the CommonsAt FMQs this lunchtime, Sturgeon insisted that Brexit makes the case for independence grow stronger every day, and she certainly appeared to suggest she’d offer an update to Holyrood after the meaningful vote in the Commons
At the post-FMQs briefing, her spokesperson reiterated that the first minister would only be able to offer an update when there was more clarity around the Brexit deal, the indications being that this would happen within weeks rather than months, “at some point when the smoke clears”. Whether this was foggy smoke, or smokey fog ... well, that wasn’t clear at all.At the post-FMQs briefing, her spokesperson reiterated that the first minister would only be able to offer an update when there was more clarity around the Brexit deal, the indications being that this would happen within weeks rather than months, “at some point when the smoke clears”. Whether this was foggy smoke, or smokey fog ... well, that wasn’t clear at all.
Beyond Holyrood, and despite concerns raised for the future of the union by Dominic Raab, Esther McVey, David Mundell et al, SNP strategists must surely be assessing whether the unfairness of the Northern Ireland deal can be used to bring more voters across to independence. Remember that polling consistently shows that appetite amongst the Scottish public for another referendum remains low.Beyond Holyrood, and despite concerns raised for the future of the union by Dominic Raab, Esther McVey, David Mundell et al, SNP strategists must surely be assessing whether the unfairness of the Northern Ireland deal can be used to bring more voters across to independence. Remember that polling consistently shows that appetite amongst the Scottish public for another referendum remains low.
Here is the anti-Brexit supporter Steve Bray, who regularly stands outside the House of Parliament. He was the person heckling during Jacob Rees-Mogg’s al fresco press conference.Here is the anti-Brexit supporter Steve Bray, who regularly stands outside the House of Parliament. He was the person heckling during Jacob Rees-Mogg’s al fresco press conference.
Here is Sky’s Tom Boadle on what Westminster broadcasters make of Bray.Here is Sky’s Tom Boadle on what Westminster broadcasters make of Bray.
Steve Bray is so often the bane of Westminster tv producers. Always on hand to ruin a live shot or ptc. On the plus side he has provided a steady stream of "EU flags in front of Parliament" picture for packages.Steve Bray is so often the bane of Westminster tv producers. Always on hand to ruin a live shot or ptc. On the plus side he has provided a steady stream of "EU flags in front of Parliament" picture for packages.
UPDATE: Here is an example of the point Boadle is making.UPDATE: Here is an example of the point Boadle is making.
The Lib Dem MP Stephen Lloyd has said he will vote for Theresa May’s Brexit deal, the BBC’’s Ben Weisz reports.The Lib Dem MP Stephen Lloyd has said he will vote for Theresa May’s Brexit deal, the BBC’’s Ben Weisz reports.
Eastbourne Lib Dem @StephenLloydEBN tells BBC Sussex he’ll honour his #ge2017 pledge and vote FOR whatever Brexit deal is put before ParliamentEastbourne Lib Dem @StephenLloydEBN tells BBC Sussex he’ll honour his #ge2017 pledge and vote FOR whatever Brexit deal is put before Parliament
Here is the state of play as things stand now.Here is the state of play as things stand now.
Theresa May has lost two of her Brexiter cabinet ministers after Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, and Esther McVey, the work and pensions secretary, resigned because they cannot support the government’s Brexit deal. In similar letters, they said that keeping the UK in a customs union with the EU would be a breach of trust, because it would break the promises made in the 2017 Conservative election manifesto. It is possible there could be more resignations, because some of the Brexiter cabinet ministers who spoke out at yesterday’s five-hour cabinet have yet to confirm whether or not they will stay. Two junior ministers and two parliamentary private secretaries have also resigned. (See 12.55am.)Theresa May has lost two of her Brexiter cabinet ministers after Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, and Esther McVey, the work and pensions secretary, resigned because they cannot support the government’s Brexit deal. In similar letters, they said that keeping the UK in a customs union with the EU would be a breach of trust, because it would break the promises made in the 2017 Conservative election manifesto. It is possible there could be more resignations, because some of the Brexiter cabinet ministers who spoke out at yesterday’s five-hour cabinet have yet to confirm whether or not they will stay. Two junior ministers and two parliamentary private secretaries have also resigned. (See 12.55am.)
May has spent three hours in the Commons listening to MPs from all sides rubbish her deal and predict that it will be voted down. A small number of Conservative MPs did support her, but there were more who were critical, and the opposition was overwhelmingly hostile too. Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, said the deal did not meet his party’s six tests. (See 10.46am.) Some MPs paid tribute to May’s good intentions, and May appeared relatively resilient at the despatch box, but she refused to say what would happen if the Commons does reject her plan. She defended the need to accept a backstop plan, and she said she shared MP’s “concerns” about the proposal. But she refused point-blank to contemplate the case for a second referendum, or extending article 50, saying repeatedly that the UK would leave the EU on 29 March. The Commons exchanges, combined with the resignations, have made it increasingly hard to see how May’s plan can survive. (See 9.42am.)May has spent three hours in the Commons listening to MPs from all sides rubbish her deal and predict that it will be voted down. A small number of Conservative MPs did support her, but there were more who were critical, and the opposition was overwhelmingly hostile too. Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, said the deal did not meet his party’s six tests. (See 10.46am.) Some MPs paid tribute to May’s good intentions, and May appeared relatively resilient at the despatch box, but she refused to say what would happen if the Commons does reject her plan. She defended the need to accept a backstop plan, and she said she shared MP’s “concerns” about the proposal. But she refused point-blank to contemplate the case for a second referendum, or extending article 50, saying repeatedly that the UK would leave the EU on 29 March. The Commons exchanges, combined with the resignations, have made it increasingly hard to see how May’s plan can survive. (See 9.42am.)
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the outspoken chair of the backbench European Research Group of Brexiters, has called for a vote of no confidence in May. He has submitted a letter to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee, calling for a vote. Other Brexiters have also called for her to go, and there is intense speculation at Westminster that Brady will soon get the 48 letters required to trigger a vote. If that were to happen, a no confidence vote would take place soon, possibly next week. But Brexiters are far less confident of defeating May, and May could win - all she needs is a majority in a yes/no confidence vote - but with reduced authority.Jacob Rees-Mogg, the outspoken chair of the backbench European Research Group of Brexiters, has called for a vote of no confidence in May. He has submitted a letter to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee, calling for a vote. Other Brexiters have also called for her to go, and there is intense speculation at Westminster that Brady will soon get the 48 letters required to trigger a vote. If that were to happen, a no confidence vote would take place soon, possibly next week. But Brexiters are far less confident of defeating May, and May could win - all she needs is a majority in a yes/no confidence vote - but with reduced authority.
EU officials have warned those calling for May to go back to Brussels that the negotiators have “exhausted the margin of manoeuvre” in the talks and the draft deal is “the best we can do”.EU officials have warned those calling for May to go back to Brussels that the negotiators have “exhausted the margin of manoeuvre” in the talks and the draft deal is “the best we can do”.
This is from the BBC’s Norman Smith.This is from the BBC’s Norman Smith.
Tory minister tells me if Brexiteers vote down Deal -he and others will openly campaign for a second referendum and to stay in EU.Tory minister tells me if Brexiteers vote down Deal -he and others will openly campaign for a second referendum and to stay in EU.
The Conservative MP Henry Smith has submitted his letter to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, requesting a vote of no confidence in Theresa May. And he has tweeted a picture of his letter, which is a lot shorter than Jacob Rees-Mogg’s. (See 1.32pm.)The Conservative MP Henry Smith has submitted his letter to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, requesting a vote of no confidence in Theresa May. And he has tweeted a picture of his letter, which is a lot shorter than Jacob Rees-Mogg’s. (See 1.32pm.)
My letter of no confidence in the Prime Minister. pic.twitter.com/Bind9T7ogOMy letter of no confidence in the Prime Minister. pic.twitter.com/Bind9T7ogO