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| Treasury to publish Brexit deal analysis after rebellion | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| After a backbench rebellion, the Treasury will publish analysis comparing the impact of Theresa May’s Brexit deal with staying in the European Union before MPs vote on it next month, ministers have confirmed. | |
| The government was forced to promise the forecasts after a cross-party amendment to the finance bill, tabled by Labour’s Chuka Umunna and Conservative Anna Soubry, gained enough support to overturn May’s majority. | The government was forced to promise the forecasts after a cross-party amendment to the finance bill, tabled by Labour’s Chuka Umunna and Conservative Anna Soubry, gained enough support to overturn May’s majority. |
| Treasury minister Robert Jenrick confirmed the government would provide economic modelling of three Brexit scenarios compared with the status quo. | |
| He told MPs: “The analysis will consider a modelled no-deal scenario – or World Trade Organization terms – a modelled analysis of a free trade agreement scenario, and a modelled analysis of the government’s proposed deal.” | |
| MPs from both parties are pressing the government to publish as much analysis as possible about the impact of its Brexit deal as they prepare for the momentous “meaningful vote”, which is likely to happen in early December. | MPs from both parties are pressing the government to publish as much analysis as possible about the impact of its Brexit deal as they prepare for the momentous “meaningful vote”, which is likely to happen in early December. |
| Labour won a vote last week forcing the government to publish the legal advice underpinning its deal. Monday’s amendment was backed by former minister Jo Johnson, who resigned earlier this month with a stinging warning that the prime minister was offering parliament a choice between “vassalage and chaos”. | Labour won a vote last week forcing the government to publish the legal advice underpinning its deal. Monday’s amendment was backed by former minister Jo Johnson, who resigned earlier this month with a stinging warning that the prime minister was offering parliament a choice between “vassalage and chaos”. |
| Supporters of a “people’s vote” are keen to prevent May framing the choice facing MPs as her deal or no deal when she brings it back to parliament next month, but the amendment was also backed by the Labour frontbench. | Supporters of a “people’s vote” are keen to prevent May framing the choice facing MPs as her deal or no deal when she brings it back to parliament next month, but the amendment was also backed by the Labour frontbench. |
| The government’s concession underlined the challenge now facing May in getting even everyday business through the House of Commons. | The government’s concession underlined the challenge now facing May in getting even everyday business through the House of Commons. |
| Treasury sources insisted on Monday that the government had always intended to publish such projections – pointing to a letter send by the chancellor, Philip Hammond, to the Treasury select committee chair Nicky Morgan earlier this year, which mentioned analysing the impact of no deal “relative to a status quo baseline”. They also pointed out that the economic analysis would be collated by the Department for Exiting the European Union. | Treasury sources insisted on Monday that the government had always intended to publish such projections – pointing to a letter send by the chancellor, Philip Hammond, to the Treasury select committee chair Nicky Morgan earlier this year, which mentioned analysing the impact of no deal “relative to a status quo baseline”. They also pointed out that the economic analysis would be collated by the Department for Exiting the European Union. |
| Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, a defeat on the finance bill, which implements the budget, is no longer formally considered a matter of no confidence that would cause the government to fall, but Downing Street has previously opted to cave in on contentious issues where it risks parliamentary defeat. It has already been forced to reverse plans in the finance bill to delay cutting the stakes on controversial fixed-odds betting gambling machines. The issue led to the resignation of the sports minister Tracey Crouch before the government executed an embarrassing U-turn last week in the face of opposition on its own benches. | |
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