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| A new wave of dissidents in the east can turn back Europe’s populist tide | A new wave of dissidents in the east can turn back Europe’s populist tide |
| (about 2 months later) | |
| Europe’s outlook can appear bleak these days: the Brexit downward spiral continues, both Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel are weakened, and Italy’s far-right-dominated, not-so-funny commedia dell’arte only seems to be getting worse. But turn your gaze a bit further east, and there is good news to be found. In central Europe, grassroots democratic movements seem to be gaining ground. In some ways they are much more valiant and persistent than those found in western European countries. They could reshape the EU in ways few people care to anticipate. | Europe’s outlook can appear bleak these days: the Brexit downward spiral continues, both Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel are weakened, and Italy’s far-right-dominated, not-so-funny commedia dell’arte only seems to be getting worse. But turn your gaze a bit further east, and there is good news to be found. In central Europe, grassroots democratic movements seem to be gaining ground. In some ways they are much more valiant and persistent than those found in western European countries. They could reshape the EU in ways few people care to anticipate. |
| The young people are particularly motivated: they have vivid family memories of an authoritarian system | The young people are particularly motivated: they have vivid family memories of an authoritarian system |
| I’ve just travelled to Slovakia, where I saw thousands demonstrate on Bratislava’s central square against corruption and for a “decent” country. Crowds stood in the cold listening to an array of activists, mostly students and artists, making the case for people power against the graft and cynicism of those who govern. The Slovak protests are organised every Friday evening not far from an improvised memorial, made of pictures, flowers and candles, honouring Ján Kuciak, a 27-year-old investigative reporter who was brutally murdered in February alongside his fiancee. Things haven’t been the same since that double murder, with an outpouring of anger and larger street demonstrations than those of the 1989 revolution in what was then Czechoslovakia. | I’ve just travelled to Slovakia, where I saw thousands demonstrate on Bratislava’s central square against corruption and for a “decent” country. Crowds stood in the cold listening to an array of activists, mostly students and artists, making the case for people power against the graft and cynicism of those who govern. The Slovak protests are organised every Friday evening not far from an improvised memorial, made of pictures, flowers and candles, honouring Ján Kuciak, a 27-year-old investigative reporter who was brutally murdered in February alongside his fiancee. Things haven’t been the same since that double murder, with an outpouring of anger and larger street demonstrations than those of the 1989 revolution in what was then Czechoslovakia. |
| Each country has its own story, of course, but events in Slovakia are part of a wider trend across the region: a new generation of central Europeans are mobilising to salvage democratic values they feel are under threat. The young people involved are extremely focused and motivated – because they have vivid family memories of what it is like to live in an authoritarian system. In Bratislava last weekend, activists and intellectuals from Hungary, Romania, the Czech Republic and Poland met to discuss their struggles and their ideals at a conference titled “Let’s demand the impossible” – a nod to the slogans of the Paris 1968 student uprising. | Each country has its own story, of course, but events in Slovakia are part of a wider trend across the region: a new generation of central Europeans are mobilising to salvage democratic values they feel are under threat. The young people involved are extremely focused and motivated – because they have vivid family memories of what it is like to live in an authoritarian system. In Bratislava last weekend, activists and intellectuals from Hungary, Romania, the Czech Republic and Poland met to discuss their struggles and their ideals at a conference titled “Let’s demand the impossible” – a nod to the slogans of the Paris 1968 student uprising. |
| Could populism actually be good for democracy? | Could populism actually be good for democracy? |
| Meanwhile in Prague, protests were under way against the scandal-ridden, oligarchic Czech prime minister Andrej Babiš, who stands accused of fraud. Calls for him to step down are intensifying, with a possible vote of no confidence in parliament later this week. Babis is defiant and says he will “never resign”, but it is striking that people took to the streets on 17 November, the anniversary of the 1989 Velvet revolution. | Meanwhile in Prague, protests were under way against the scandal-ridden, oligarchic Czech prime minister Andrej Babiš, who stands accused of fraud. Calls for him to step down are intensifying, with a possible vote of no confidence in parliament later this week. Babis is defiant and says he will “never resign”, but it is striking that people took to the streets on 17 November, the anniversary of the 1989 Velvet revolution. |
| Recent developments in Poland are also interesting: the opposition to the nationalist “Kaczyński regime” made some important gains a few weeks ago in local elections, taking almost all of the larger cities – a vote that underscored how divided the country is. The ruling Law and Justice party may struggle to win in next year’s European parliament election, and in national elections beyond that. If so, this would be a momentous shift, not least because Poland is a large EU country. “Poland will be back,” one Polish writer and leftwing intellectual confidently told me while in Bratislava. He meant a democratic, pro-EU Poland. | Recent developments in Poland are also interesting: the opposition to the nationalist “Kaczyński regime” made some important gains a few weeks ago in local elections, taking almost all of the larger cities – a vote that underscored how divided the country is. The ruling Law and Justice party may struggle to win in next year’s European parliament election, and in national elections beyond that. If so, this would be a momentous shift, not least because Poland is a large EU country. “Poland will be back,” one Polish writer and leftwing intellectual confidently told me while in Bratislava. He meant a democratic, pro-EU Poland. |
| In Romania, civil society is also buzzing with energy after massive street protests were held in August against government plans to dismantle anti-corruption measures. While in Bratislava, a Romanian activist from the town of Sibiu, in Transylvania, described how crowds continued to hold daily “silent” protests in front of the ruling party’s local offices. “We stand there, on the public square, reading poetry and texts by Henry David Thoreau on civil disobedience”, he smiled. | In Romania, civil society is also buzzing with energy after massive street protests were held in August against government plans to dismantle anti-corruption measures. While in Bratislava, a Romanian activist from the town of Sibiu, in Transylvania, described how crowds continued to hold daily “silent” protests in front of the ruling party’s local offices. “We stand there, on the public square, reading poetry and texts by Henry David Thoreau on civil disobedience”, he smiled. |
| Even Hungary’s strongman Viktor Orbán may not be as secure as he thinks – at least in his EU-wide ambitions. It’s true he was comfortably re-elected earlier this year, but the man who casts himself as the ideologue of “illiberal democracy”, and a champion of “Christian”, anti-immigration sentiment, has now come under strong criticism from within the continental political bloc he belongs to, the European People’s party. Central European sources tell me Orbán will get kicked out of that group after the May 2019 EU elections. Whether this happens or not, he was very publicly lambasted for his illiberalism earlier this month at the European People’s party congress held in Helsinki. And his image has been further tarnished by the so-called Gruevski scandal – a case of political asylum given in Hungary to Macedonia’s convicted former prime minister. The joke in Budapest now, one Hungarian pro-democracy activist tells me, is that “Orbán no longer seems to have a problem with criminal migrants”. | Even Hungary’s strongman Viktor Orbán may not be as secure as he thinks – at least in his EU-wide ambitions. It’s true he was comfortably re-elected earlier this year, but the man who casts himself as the ideologue of “illiberal democracy”, and a champion of “Christian”, anti-immigration sentiment, has now come under strong criticism from within the continental political bloc he belongs to, the European People’s party. Central European sources tell me Orbán will get kicked out of that group after the May 2019 EU elections. Whether this happens or not, he was very publicly lambasted for his illiberalism earlier this month at the European People’s party congress held in Helsinki. And his image has been further tarnished by the so-called Gruevski scandal – a case of political asylum given in Hungary to Macedonia’s convicted former prime minister. The joke in Budapest now, one Hungarian pro-democracy activist tells me, is that “Orbán no longer seems to have a problem with criminal migrants”. |
| For all the talk about central Europe having fallen prey to mind-numbing populism in recent years, some nuances and signs of change are worth paying closer attention to. Across the region, civil society activists are pushing back hard against the cynics in power. We should beware of caving in to a simplistic narrative about the east of Europe being a homogeneous hotbed of authoritarianism with little effort put into holding it in check. There is resistance. | For all the talk about central Europe having fallen prey to mind-numbing populism in recent years, some nuances and signs of change are worth paying closer attention to. Across the region, civil society activists are pushing back hard against the cynics in power. We should beware of caving in to a simplistic narrative about the east of Europe being a homogeneous hotbed of authoritarianism with little effort put into holding it in check. There is resistance. |
| Populism is not the whole story – European politics is rewiring itself | Cas Mudde | Populism is not the whole story – European politics is rewiring itself | Cas Mudde |
| In fact, in some ways, Europe’s west looks more worrying than its east. The opposition to Matteo Salvini in Italy looks flat on its face. In France, Marine Le Pen’s party is now riding higher in polls than Macron’s La Republique En Marche. When French protesters blocked roads last week, it looked like the social movement might fuel yet more populist tendencies, rather than run counter to them. Britain, meanwhile, is locked into its separate world with Brexit. And Germany is experiencing its own brand of navel-gazing, as a result of the contest for Merkel’s succession. | In fact, in some ways, Europe’s west looks more worrying than its east. The opposition to Matteo Salvini in Italy looks flat on its face. In France, Marine Le Pen’s party is now riding higher in polls than Macron’s La Republique En Marche. When French protesters blocked roads last week, it looked like the social movement might fuel yet more populist tendencies, rather than run counter to them. Britain, meanwhile, is locked into its separate world with Brexit. And Germany is experiencing its own brand of navel-gazing, as a result of the contest for Merkel’s succession. |
| If the political tide in central Europe does shift in the coming year, an entirely different picture could emerge on the continent. The children of those who successfully fought for democracy in 1989 will have demonstrated that “truth” and “decency” (key slogans they use) can yet again be victorious. The oft-mentioned east-west gap would then need to be revisited altogether. | If the political tide in central Europe does shift in the coming year, an entirely different picture could emerge on the continent. The children of those who successfully fought for democracy in 1989 will have demonstrated that “truth” and “decency” (key slogans they use) can yet again be victorious. The oft-mentioned east-west gap would then need to be revisited altogether. |
| Western European liberals and progressives might want to draw a lesson or two from the mobilisation in the east. Central Europeans know they are in a fight for values – and what failure might cost them. As a consequence, they adapt their methods. For instance, they reach out to – rather than shun – socially conservative parts of the population. Slovak grassroots protesters have made a point of harnessing the support of traditionalist Catholic networks – because fighting for the democratic rule of law means being inclusive of people you might not agree with. Also, they have smartly set up public transparency for their crowdfunded bank account, as a way of disproving conspiracy theories saying that they are “Soros funded”. | Western European liberals and progressives might want to draw a lesson or two from the mobilisation in the east. Central Europeans know they are in a fight for values – and what failure might cost them. As a consequence, they adapt their methods. For instance, they reach out to – rather than shun – socially conservative parts of the population. Slovak grassroots protesters have made a point of harnessing the support of traditionalist Catholic networks – because fighting for the democratic rule of law means being inclusive of people you might not agree with. Also, they have smartly set up public transparency for their crowdfunded bank account, as a way of disproving conspiracy theories saying that they are “Soros funded”. |
| I’m not saying populism is over in central Europe. I’m saying the spirit of dissidence is alive and well, and “westerners” should take more notice. Europe’s salvation might possibly come from the east. | I’m not saying populism is over in central Europe. I’m saying the spirit of dissidence is alive and well, and “westerners” should take more notice. Europe’s salvation might possibly come from the east. |
| • Natalie Nougayrède is a Guardian columnist | • Natalie Nougayrède is a Guardian columnist |
| • This article was amended on 22 November 2018. An earlier version spelled Kaczyński as Kaszynski. | • This article was amended on 22 November 2018. An earlier version spelled Kaczyński as Kaszynski. |
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