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| Government could fall if Brexit deal fails, says Jeremy Hunt | Government could fall if Brexit deal fails, says Jeremy Hunt |
| (6 days later) | |
| The odds of Theresa May getting her Brexit deal through parliament are “looking challenging”, Jeremy Hunt has said, adding that it was possible the government could collapse if this failed to happen. | The odds of Theresa May getting her Brexit deal through parliament are “looking challenging”, Jeremy Hunt has said, adding that it was possible the government could collapse if this failed to happen. |
| Speaking as the prime minister was in Brussels, where EU leaders agreed the Brexit plan, the foreign secretary declined to predict whether the proposals would make the UK better off, saying only that it “mitigates most of the negative impacts” of leaving the EU. | Speaking as the prime minister was in Brussels, where EU leaders agreed the Brexit plan, the foreign secretary declined to predict whether the proposals would make the UK better off, saying only that it “mitigates most of the negative impacts” of leaving the EU. |
| Brexit phrasebook: a guide to the talks' key terms | |
| Hunt was the second cabinet minister to make such a statement on on Sunday, with the communities secretary, James Brokenshire, also refusing to assert that he believed the plan would be better for the UK than staying in the EU. | Hunt was the second cabinet minister to make such a statement on on Sunday, with the communities secretary, James Brokenshire, also refusing to assert that he believed the plan would be better for the UK than staying in the EU. |
| Speaking on BBC One’s The Andrew Marr Show, Hunt urged his fellow Conservative MPs to back the deal, saying it was the best that could be expected for now. | Speaking on BBC One’s The Andrew Marr Show, Hunt urged his fellow Conservative MPs to back the deal, saying it was the best that could be expected for now. |
| “I think the truth is there are compromises in this deal,” he said. “But my colleagues in the House of Commons will be looking at this and they will say, we have got between 70% and 80% of what we want, and the question is: can this be a staging post to getting 100% of what we want, particularly being an independent trading nation, a sovereign Britain ploughing our furrow in the world?” | “I think the truth is there are compromises in this deal,” he said. “But my colleagues in the House of Commons will be looking at this and they will say, we have got between 70% and 80% of what we want, and the question is: can this be a staging post to getting 100% of what we want, particularly being an independent trading nation, a sovereign Britain ploughing our furrow in the world?” |
| But Hunt accepted that getting the deal approved by the Commons looked problematic. He said: “That’s a very difficult question, and the arithmetic at the moment is looking challenging. But a lot can change over the next two weeks. I think what all of my colleagues will be doing is thinking what is in the national interest.” | But Hunt accepted that getting the deal approved by the Commons looked problematic. He said: “That’s a very difficult question, and the arithmetic at the moment is looking challenging. But a lot can change over the next two weeks. I think what all of my colleagues will be doing is thinking what is in the national interest.” |
| Asked if this meant it was possible May’s government could collapse, Hunt did not dismiss the idea. | Asked if this meant it was possible May’s government could collapse, Hunt did not dismiss the idea. |
| If MPs reject the deal, there are seven possible paths the country could go down next. | If MPs reject the deal, there are seven possible paths the country could go down next. |
| May brings it back to MPsPerhaps with minor tweaks after a dash to Brussels. MPs knuckle under and vote it through. | May brings it back to MPsPerhaps with minor tweaks after a dash to Brussels. MPs knuckle under and vote it through. |
| May resigns immediatelyIt is hard to imagine her surviving for long. After a rapid leadership contest, a different leader could appeal to a majority in parliament, perhaps by offering a softer deal. | May resigns immediatelyIt is hard to imagine her surviving for long. After a rapid leadership contest, a different leader could appeal to a majority in parliament, perhaps by offering a softer deal. |
| Tory backbenchers depose herJacob Rees-Mogg gets his way and there is a no-confidence vote. A new leader then tries to assemble a majority behind a tweaked deal. | Tory backbenchers depose herJacob Rees-Mogg gets his way and there is a no-confidence vote. A new leader then tries to assemble a majority behind a tweaked deal. |
| May calls a general electionMay could choose to take the ultimate gamble and hope that voters would back her deal, over the heads of squabbling MPs. | May calls a general electionMay could choose to take the ultimate gamble and hope that voters would back her deal, over the heads of squabbling MPs. |
| Labour tries to force an electionThe opposition tables a vote of no confidence. If May lost, the opposition (or a new Conservative leader) would have two weeks to form an alternative government that could win a second confidence vote. If they were unable to do so, a general election would be triggered. | Labour tries to force an electionThe opposition tables a vote of no confidence. If May lost, the opposition (or a new Conservative leader) would have two weeks to form an alternative government that could win a second confidence vote. If they were unable to do so, a general election would be triggered. |
| A second referendum gathers supportThis is most likely if Labour makes a last-ditch decision to back it. | A second referendum gathers supportThis is most likely if Labour makes a last-ditch decision to back it. |
| No dealThe EU (Withdrawal) Act specifies 29 March 2019 as Brexit day. Amber Rudd has said she believes parliament would stop a no deal, but it is not clear how it would do so. | No dealThe EU (Withdrawal) Act specifies 29 March 2019 as Brexit day. Amber Rudd has said she believes parliament would stop a no deal, but it is not clear how it would do so. |
| He said: “It’s not possible to rule out anything, and that’s why all of us have to say, what do your constituents actually want in this situation, and we have to work out what’s in the national interest, and it’s all about the balance of risks. This isn’t a perfect deal for everyone, but does have a lot of what everyone wants.” | He said: “It’s not possible to rule out anything, and that’s why all of us have to say, what do your constituents actually want in this situation, and we have to work out what’s in the national interest, and it’s all about the balance of risks. This isn’t a perfect deal for everyone, but does have a lot of what everyone wants.” |
| If parliament turned down the plan, Hunt said a no-deal departure was “not inevitable”, but would not be simple to prevent. “What we are actually saying is that if there was gridlock in parliament there would be a huge degree of uncertainty,” he said. | If parliament turned down the plan, Hunt said a no-deal departure was “not inevitable”, but would not be simple to prevent. “What we are actually saying is that if there was gridlock in parliament there would be a huge degree of uncertainty,” he said. |
| Asked if May’s plan would make the UK better off than if it stayed in the EU, Hunt responded: “There’s a huge debate about the economic impact of Brexit. This deal, as it stands, mitigates most of the negative impacts. I think we will not be significantly worse off or better off, but what it does mean is that we get our independence back, our sovereignty back.” | Asked if May’s plan would make the UK better off than if it stayed in the EU, Hunt responded: “There’s a huge debate about the economic impact of Brexit. This deal, as it stands, mitigates most of the negative impacts. I think we will not be significantly worse off or better off, but what it does mean is that we get our independence back, our sovereignty back.” |
| Brokenshire, interviewed on Sky News’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday, gave an even more opaque answer about whether May’s plan was better for the UK than being an EU member. | Brokenshire, interviewed on Sky News’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday, gave an even more opaque answer about whether May’s plan was better for the UK than being an EU member. |
| “It does give effect to the vote of the British people, and therefore yes, things have now changed,” he said. “We’ve had that referendum, we’ve looked towards a future outside of the European Union, and this is a good deal for our country.” | “It does give effect to the vote of the British people, and therefore yes, things have now changed,” he said. “We’ve had that referendum, we’ve looked towards a future outside of the European Union, and this is a good deal for our country.” |
| Pressed to clarify what he meant, Brokenshire said: “I think that given the people have now voted for us to leave the European Union, yes, I think the European Union has moved on, it is in our interests to secure this deal, to look to that bright future where we can negotiate trading arrangements with countries outside of the EU. | Pressed to clarify what he meant, Brokenshire said: “I think that given the people have now voted for us to leave the European Union, yes, I think the European Union has moved on, it is in our interests to secure this deal, to look to that bright future where we can negotiate trading arrangements with countries outside of the EU. |
| “And yes, getting on with this now, and actually charting that bright, positive future that I know that we can secure.” | “And yes, getting on with this now, and actually charting that bright, positive future that I know that we can secure.” |
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