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Liberal senator unloads on party hardliners – politics live Tim Wilson says Victorian election result shows Liberal voter base have ‘had enough’ – politics live
(35 minutes later)
Oh, Ray Hadley just reminded me of some other news which came out over the weekend.
As predicted a few months ago on these very pages, it is bye bye Jim Molan.
Andrew Bragg and Hollie Hughes have the winnable spots on the NSW Senate ticket.
Molan has been relegated to an un-winnable spot.
He responded by pulling out of his appearance on the Bad Show tonight.
Tony Abbott finds it “absolutely nauseating”.
He thinks factional politics means you don’t chose candidates on their “quality”.
Because, as Abbott and co keep telling us, they are all absolutely there on merit.
Ray Hadley is offering solutions to the government on how to win the next election, which could be best described as useful as a marzipan oven mitt.
All you need is a coal-fired power station, apparently.
You may have heard they did surgery on a grape #niche
Well, it looks like they may also be doing surgery on Peter Dutton’s arm. So he won’t be in parliament.
pic.twitter.com/EHRhJOsShY
Samantha Maiden at the New Daily reports that Queensland MP Llew O’Brien is looking at crossing the floor to ensure the national integrity commission gets up.
O’Brien says he thinks its a “no-brainer” and would help restore public trust in politics.
Which reminded me of a matter which occurred before O’Brien entered parliament.
The new independent Member for Wentworth @drkerrynphelps arrives at Parliament House in Canberra #auspol @SBSNews pic.twitter.com/qKHM0QlURU
Actually, let’s just list everything the Coalition has lost in the last little bit.
Western Australia
Queensland
Longman
Braddon
Wentworth
Didn’t even run in Perth or Fremantle during the super Saturday byelections because of the fear of what the result would reveal.
Also worth mentioning that Labor had its biggest victory in the Western Australia election (which was held in March last year) since the 1900s.
But I suppose that had nothing to do with the Liberal party either.
(Thank you to my Western Australian expert for these figures)
The Liberal primary at the 2013 election was 47.1%.
At the 2017 poll it fell to 31.2%
The Nat primary vote at the 2013 election was 6.1%
At the 2017 poll it fell to 5.4%
The ALP primary vote at the 2013 election was 33.1%
At the 2017 poll it rose to 42.2%
Labor’s lower house representation went from 21 members to 41 members
The Liberal Party’s representation fell from 31 members to 13
The Nationals went from 7 to 5
It was the biggest gain in seats by Labor since the 1904 election when they picked up 16 seats…
Victorian premier Daniel Andrews has been speaking to Jon Faine on ABC Melbourne this morning.Victorian premier Daniel Andrews has been speaking to Jon Faine on ABC Melbourne this morning.
He says that Labor won because they “get things done” and refused to take the “low road” of racial dog-whistling.He says that Labor won because they “get things done” and refused to take the “low road” of racial dog-whistling.
That’s a stronger criticism of the Coalition’s framing of issues like crime and population than Andrews was prepared to give during the campaign.That’s a stronger criticism of the Coalition’s framing of issues like crime and population than Andrews was prepared to give during the campaign.
Faine asked if the “sense of urgency” that characterised the Andrews government’s first four years will continue; Andrews says yes.Faine asked if the “sense of urgency” that characterised the Andrews government’s first four years will continue; Andrews says yes.
Getting things done, he says, is not just a slogan. “I was taught a long time ago, be yourself, do what comes naturally, and getting things done is not just a brand Jon, because people don’t support brands unless they’re real.”Getting things done, he says, is not just a slogan. “I was taught a long time ago, be yourself, do what comes naturally, and getting things done is not just a brand Jon, because people don’t support brands unless they’re real.”
Andrews is due at a press conference at Greensborough in the northern suburbs of Melbourne at 10.30am to announce that the first stage of the $15.8bn North East link will be put to tender today.Andrews is due at a press conference at Greensborough in the northern suburbs of Melbourne at 10.30am to announce that the first stage of the $15.8bn North East link will be put to tender today.
He says he “can’t accurately describe to you how satisfying [it] is” to sign off on projects that employ people.He says he “can’t accurately describe to you how satisfying [it] is” to sign off on projects that employ people.
“We are at our best when we lead, Jon, we are not at our best when we are out there race-bating or delivering ill-informed, low-grade, low-road politics.” “We are at our best when we lead, Jon, we are not at our best when we are out there race-bating or delivering ill-informed, low-grade, low-road policies.”
Victorian federal MP Tim Wilson has some very strong ideas of why the Liberals were destroyed in his home state and what is to blame, and he told Sky about it a few moments ago:Victorian federal MP Tim Wilson has some very strong ideas of why the Liberals were destroyed in his home state and what is to blame, and he told Sky about it a few moments ago:
... I think you saw a heartland and voter base, who turned around, and said to us ‘we’ve had enough’.... I think you saw a heartland and voter base, who turned around, and said to us ‘we’ve had enough’.
You can go on saying this has got no federal implications, but sorry, not true.You can go on saying this has got no federal implications, but sorry, not true.
I sat there on polling booths, and every second person either gave you deadly silence, which is a very cold, deadly silence, or there were people mentioning energy, climate or the deposing of the prime minister.I sat there on polling booths, and every second person either gave you deadly silence, which is a very cold, deadly silence, or there were people mentioning energy, climate or the deposing of the prime minister.
Now, I think we can get past that. I know the people who vote for me, I know them very well, and I can tell you they are not rusted on conservatives ... they are a forward-looking, modern liberal community, and they sent us a message, very clearly.Now, I think we can get past that. I know the people who vote for me, I know them very well, and I can tell you they are not rusted on conservatives ... they are a forward-looking, modern liberal community, and they sent us a message, very clearly.
.@TimWilsonMP: We have a choice; we can heed the message and try to keep trying to stuff reality through people’s ideological objectives, or we can actually listen. But if we don't have a vision for the future … we cannot be successful.MORE: https://t.co/nCa56qqjCY #amagenda pic.twitter.com/O7TXS16Aaz.@TimWilsonMP: We have a choice; we can heed the message and try to keep trying to stuff reality through people’s ideological objectives, or we can actually listen. But if we don't have a vision for the future … we cannot be successful.MORE: https://t.co/nCa56qqjCY #amagenda pic.twitter.com/O7TXS16Aaz
Herald Sun reporter Anthony Galloway published this story last night, on the Senate committee looking into the AFP raid of a Home Affairs employee, over the Peter Dutton au pair leaks.Herald Sun reporter Anthony Galloway published this story last night, on the Senate committee looking into the AFP raid of a Home Affairs employee, over the Peter Dutton au pair leaks.
It has been a slow burner, because of everything else going on in the last 24 hours, but it is important, because it makes the point that the Senate committee, which could hand down its findings on the matter as early as today, could lead to the AFP being found in contempt of parliament. It’s all about the remit of the warrant, as Galloway reports:It has been a slow burner, because of everything else going on in the last 24 hours, but it is important, because it makes the point that the Senate committee, which could hand down its findings on the matter as early as today, could lead to the AFP being found in contempt of parliament. It’s all about the remit of the warrant, as Galloway reports:
The secret police warrant also included the name of the Senate inquiry which was leaked internal correspondence revealing high-level lobbying by AFL boss Gillon McLachlan [of] Mr Dutton.The secret police warrant also included the name of the Senate inquiry which was leaked internal correspondence revealing high-level lobbying by AFL boss Gillon McLachlan [of] Mr Dutton.
According to well-placed sources, the revelations suggest the AFP knew it was going after materials which could have been handed to senators in their role as members of the parliamentary committee.According to well-placed sources, the revelations suggest the AFP knew it was going after materials which could have been handed to senators in their role as members of the parliamentary committee.
The AFP has previously said it was investigating leaks directly to the media, not the parliamentary committee.The AFP has previously said it was investigating leaks directly to the media, not the parliamentary committee.
Under the laws of parliamentary privilege, warrants should not be executed which improperly interfere with the functioning of parliament.Under the laws of parliamentary privilege, warrants should not be executed which improperly interfere with the functioning of parliament.
But Josh Frydenberg is VERY sure that the federal party arm had nothing to do with the Victorian result.But Josh Frydenberg is VERY sure that the federal party arm had nothing to do with the Victorian result.
.@Kieran_Gilbert: The PM didn’t appear in Victoria, but he was in nearly every ad Labor ran. You have to concede that was a big chunk of the vote against the Liberals.@JoshFrydenberg: It was a state election fought on state issues. MORE: https://t.co/hhZmGOr1Ae #FirstEdition pic.twitter.com/T07YJAjQuC.@Kieran_Gilbert: The PM didn’t appear in Victoria, but he was in nearly every ad Labor ran. You have to concede that was a big chunk of the vote against the Liberals.@JoshFrydenberg: It was a state election fought on state issues. MORE: https://t.co/hhZmGOr1Ae #FirstEdition pic.twitter.com/T07YJAjQuC
Which is EXACTLY what was said this time last year, when Annastacia Palaszczuk took Queensland Labor to a second term government, with an increased majority.Which is EXACTLY what was said this time last year, when Annastacia Palaszczuk took Queensland Labor to a second term government, with an increased majority.
That was exactly one year ago. And that government did not make massive spending promises, because Queensland is almost as broke as me.That was exactly one year ago. And that government did not make massive spending promises, because Queensland is almost as broke as me.
Earlier this morning Josh Frydenberg also told Sky News that it was the spending in Victoria which outdid the Liberal opposition.Earlier this morning Josh Frydenberg also told Sky News that it was the spending in Victoria which outdid the Liberal opposition.
He mentions that there were “issues” which arose in health, public transport and the like and Daniel Andrews “threw money at it”.He mentions that there were “issues” which arose in health, public transport and the like and Daniel Andrews “threw money at it”.
Which seems an interesting critique on a couple of points: a) it doesn’t seem that outrageous that if problems are identified in public services, that people would expect their governments to spend money to fix them and b) the federal government has taken to doing exactly the same thing.Which seems an interesting critique on a couple of points: a) it doesn’t seem that outrageous that if problems are identified in public services, that people would expect their governments to spend money to fix them and b) the federal government has taken to doing exactly the same thing.
I mean, you could argue that the federal government has “thrown” money at the Catholic school issues, north Queensland water projects after Bob Katter made some noise about using the minority numbers against them, the GST floor for the states, etc, etc.I mean, you could argue that the federal government has “thrown” money at the Catholic school issues, north Queensland water projects after Bob Katter made some noise about using the minority numbers against them, the GST floor for the states, etc, etc.
And for the first time, it is doing it, by breaking the budget rule – it’s not cutting the budget to fund these changes, it is planning on using increased revenues.And for the first time, it is doing it, by breaking the budget rule – it’s not cutting the budget to fund these changes, it is planning on using increased revenues.
So, I don’t actually understand the point the federal government is attempting to make here. Spending is bad, if it’s done by anyone else but it?So, I don’t actually understand the point the federal government is attempting to make here. Spending is bad, if it’s done by anyone else but it?
Here is Michael Kroger explaining how we just don’t understand that we’ve never had it so good before.Here is Michael Kroger explaining how we just don’t understand that we’ve never had it so good before.
Michael Kroger: The public thirst for unparalleled public expenditure is at levels we’ve never seen before. The Liberal Party cannot compete with that. It’s not in the Liberal Party’s DNA to run up huge debts. MORE: https://t.co/nCa56qqjCY #FirstEdition pic.twitter.com/FKtTeScL2pMichael Kroger: The public thirst for unparalleled public expenditure is at levels we’ve never seen before. The Liberal Party cannot compete with that. It’s not in the Liberal Party’s DNA to run up huge debts. MORE: https://t.co/nCa56qqjCY #FirstEdition pic.twitter.com/FKtTeScL2p
One of the other strong federal Liberal contributions on the Victorian result is that of senator Jane Hume, who has written in the Australian Financial Review [$] that:One of the other strong federal Liberal contributions on the Victorian result is that of senator Jane Hume, who has written in the Australian Financial Review [$] that:
“If we allow good policy to be infiltrated by even the perception of an ideological crusade, Labor will win the messaging war.”“If we allow good policy to be infiltrated by even the perception of an ideological crusade, Labor will win the messaging war.”
Hume cites three areas of policy for this critique:Hume cites three areas of policy for this critique:
In education policy, Hume says “our good policies were drowned by our ideological opposition to an anti-bullying program” and “we underestimated our electorates – parents want their kids to grow up kind as well as clever”.In education policy, Hume says “our good policies were drowned by our ideological opposition to an anti-bullying program” and “we underestimated our electorates – parents want their kids to grow up kind as well as clever”.
On energy policy, Hume says “our good policies were drowned by a (falsely) perceived ideological opposition to renewable energy”. “Again, we underestimated our electorates – Victorians place a high value on their environment.”On energy policy, Hume says “our good policies were drowned by a (falsely) perceived ideological opposition to renewable energy”. “Again, we underestimated our electorates – Victorians place a high value on their environment.”
On crime, Hume says the Coalition policies were “strong and thorough and would have made a significant difference” but “the problem wasn’t uniform across electorates, and in some places our messaging appeared divisive”.On crime, Hume says the Coalition policies were “strong and thorough and would have made a significant difference” but “the problem wasn’t uniform across electorates, and in some places our messaging appeared divisive”.
Another lesson, according to Hume, is the party needs more women to be more representative:Another lesson, according to Hume, is the party needs more women to be more representative:
“It’s hard to understand an electorate if you don’t reflect it. Female representation in the Liberal party is no longer an issue of aesthetics but an electoral imperative. The rise of centre-right female independents in previously Liberal held safe seats cannot be ignored. The leaders that champion and facilitate the introduction of significantly more women to our parliamentary team – in safe seats that allow them time to rise through the ranks – will leave a legacy as important as the traditional Liberal heroes.”“It’s hard to understand an electorate if you don’t reflect it. Female representation in the Liberal party is no longer an issue of aesthetics but an electoral imperative. The rise of centre-right female independents in previously Liberal held safe seats cannot be ignored. The leaders that champion and facilitate the introduction of significantly more women to our parliamentary team – in safe seats that allow them time to rise through the ranks – will leave a legacy as important as the traditional Liberal heroes.”
Ok this is very weird he has congratulated this victory and not mentioned the other thing https://t.co/rSsZ6wZApQ
Oh wow – Michael Kroger just appeared to be arguing that part of the reason Victorians were happy to vote for a spending government, is because they have never known bad economic times. That they haven’t seen a recession, or things like foreclosures.
I’ve managed to pick my jaw off the floor, but it was tough going for a while there. Thank goodness the wind didn’t change.
While it is true that Australia has not technically fallen into depression, the global financial crisis did bite. Wage growth has not happened. A whole generation has been largely locked out of the housing market. Underemployment is a growing problem. Part of the reason we have a banking royal commission is because of the foreclosure of properties and farms following the ongoing drought. I could go on, but I don’t need to, because you all know your own financial position better than I do. But to say that we haven’t experienced tough financial times, so we just don’t get why tight government budget control is important is absolutely flabbergasting. And might, just might, explain why the Liberals campaign in Victoria failed to win hearts and minds.
Michael Kroger, the president of the Victorian Liberal party, says he won’t be resigning from his position, because he is not to blame.
I mean, he only headed up the campaign, but sure.
Speaking to Sky, Kroger says the Victorian Liberals were beaten on policy, because Labor was offering so much free stuff.
That “free stuff” is things like breakfast for secondary school students (primary students already get it) and free sanitary products, and spending on infrastructure and services.
His argument seems to be people love governments spending on their infrastructure and services, and the Victorian Liberals could not compete with that.
And to those colleagues who have been blaming the federal party for the result, Kroger says “grow up”.
He has also mentioned, at least three times, that the party is a “little more sophisticated down here”, which is why they understand he is not to blame.
You may have seen a bit of commentary around from conservative types over the weekend, that Peter Dutton could have changed the Victorian election result.
The only way Dutton as leader would have impacted the Victorian election was to make it worse. Dutton certainly has his fans, but it would be a mistake to think that because he appeals to some voters in Queensland, that Dutton would appeal to small-L liberal voters across the country.
Because the mistake we keep seeing is politicians thinking Queensland voters all think the same way, all vote the same way, and each region wants exactly the same thing from its parliamentarians.
Queensland is unique in that 50% of the population is decentralised. So take the state together, and you’ll get a pretty good idea of what a lot of the country is thinking. But it is impossible to pigeonhole. Voters in the south-east are a hell of a lot different in their thinking than voters in the north.
And you are not just a “real” person if you live in north Queensland, despite what Liberal MPs keep telling me.
The sooner politicians realise that every voter is a “real” person, and that every single region in Australia exists in some sort of “bubble”, the sooner they might actually start to connect with them.
Just a reminder – Scott Morrison still hasn’t commented on the Victorian election result.
Not even a statement.
Scott Ryan has given his two cents on the Victorian state election and he says one of the lessons is the Liberal party must pay attention to “our electoral base – our real base”.
The senator from Victoria told Radio National the result saw “swings in previously safe Liberal seats, seats that are cradle of the Liberal party” such as Kew, Sandringham, Brighton, Box Hill and Hawthorn that sit in the federal seats of Goldstein, Higgins, Menzies and Kooyong.
Ryan said while Liberals are often personally conservative they are liberal in their political outlook and don’t seek to impose their views on others. He said social issues and climate change should not become litmus tests for what it means to be a “real Liberal” and people should not be told they are “not conservative enough”.
Ryan said the “noise out of Canberra is not what people are focused on in their everyday lives”.
He said religious freedom was a “distraction” before the Wentworth byelection and although religious freedom and discrimination law might be important issues they weren’t raised with him at polling places.
Ryan has a pretty big serve at conservative commentators (Sky After Dark) who dismissed the voters of the Wentworth byelection as “somehow not party of real Australia” because the electorate is too progressive.
He said:
Labelling people, dismissing them, that’s not the Liberal way. I want to cast the net wide in the Menzies and Howard tradition, to give people a reason to be Liberals not come up with litmus tests ... that is not the path to electoral success. And I am sick of being lectured to by people who are not members of the party, by people who have never stood on polling booths about what it means to be a real Liberal.
That united and stable approach Bill Shorten just mentioned is approaching record proportions for an opposition leader.
On Sunday, Shorten cracked the top 10 of longest-serving federal opposition leaders.
A Bill Shorten record. Today he overtakes Bill Hayden's term of 5 years, 1 month and 12 days as Opposition Leader. He's now the 10th longest-serving OL and will overtake Scullin's two separate terms on January 3. https://t.co/bU6uLqItkC
Bill Shorten popped up on Sky News this morning – in the studio (Sky has a new studio in Canberra, which, as Laura Jayes just mentioned, is known as the mother ship – it is HUUUUGGGGE), and the Labor leader seems, as you would expect, to be in pretty good spirits.
I note he is in the studio because while Shorten does hold a press conference most days, and is no stranger to the radio scene, it is fairly rare to see the Labor leader interviewed one-on-one live to air.
He, of course, has a few things to say about the Victorian election.
“[To those Liberals] who believe there is no message for the Liberal brand in Australia, well, that is up to them,” he says.
“How they do the postmortem and the recriminations, I am not going to get involved in. But what I saw on Saturday, what I have seen all round Australia, better schools and better hospitals, trumps cuts and chaos and division.
“What I heard on Saturday as I was handing out in the suburbs of Melbourne, was people saying they were sick of the division in the Liberal party, they just want some continuity , some stability– they also want some long-term vision.
“The message I have taken from Victoria is a positive one. Stick to the policies, stick to looking after the people, stay united and stable like we have for over five years, and people will reward you.”
Scott Ryan is on Radio National, and from the sound of things, the Senate president is done following the line that the Liberal party has its house in order and everything is fine. Paul Karp will be bringing you more from what is shaping up to be an extraordinary interview, very soon.
Ryan says the noise from Canberra is saying "you have got to have a particular view on climate change, you have got to have a particular view on religious freedom if you're not a real Liberal."
"I think these people... they don't want litmus tests for Ryan said those voters don't want "a litmus test on what it means to be a real Liberal."
Welcome to the first of the final parliamentary sitting days for 2018 – and what a two weeks it is shaping up to be.
Scott Morrison walks into the parliament for the first time as a prime minister of a minority government.
Since we last gathered here on these pages, the Coalition lost Wentworth, which seemed to surprise even those party types who were expecting a poor result, and the Liberals not only lost the Victorian election, Labor came back with an increased majority.
Cue a whole heap of “the federal shenanigans had nothing to do with it” explanations, despite quite a few voters telling the government that dumping a prime minister for no apparent reason, does, actually, have everything to do with it. I mean, what do Wentworth and the entire state of Victoria have in common, other than a complete trouncing of the federal ruling party?
And then there is the latest Newspoll, which, despite a slight bump in personal popularity for Morrison, shows the government remains very unpopular. Facing losing 20-plus seats at the next federal election, unpopular. A primary result of 34% unpopular.
So, it is not great. On any measure.
But that has never stopped the spin before, and it won’t, as we head in to the last eight days of sitting.
Labor and the crossbench will be seizing their chance to make hay – they will be talking together about getting a national integrity commission up from the opposition benches. It is rare, but not impossible. In this case, it needs an absolute majority, which is 75 plus one, so someone from the government will have to wander over to the other side, to bring on the debate for any private members’ bill. There are a few names floating around as potential floor crosses, because at this stage, what does anyone have to lose?
We’ll follow that, and all the days events, as Kerryn Phelps is sworn in and delivers her maiden speech. So I hope you’ll keep checking back. Mike Bowers has been snaffled elsewhere this week, but you still have the Guardian brains trust at your disposal, as well as my caffeine-fuelled fingers.
I am on coffee number two. By this time next week, I am sure that number will have doubled. I hope you’re ready.
Let’s get into it.