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| Labour plays waiting game over second Brexit referendum | Labour plays waiting game over second Brexit referendum |
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| Labour’s leadership is determined to hold out against backing a second referendum on Brexit unless all other options have been exhausted, despite growing calls for the party to tack towards remain, according to senior party sources. | Labour’s leadership is determined to hold out against backing a second referendum on Brexit unless all other options have been exhausted, despite growing calls for the party to tack towards remain, according to senior party sources. |
| Jeremy Corbyn’s close allies are acutely conscious they may have to make momentous decisions at high speed if Theresa May’s deal is rejected by MPs in the meaningful vote expected to be held on 12 December: a scenario that looks increasingly likely. | |
| The prime minister would have to return to parliament within 21 days and set out how she intends to proceed. | The prime minister would have to return to parliament within 21 days and set out how she intends to proceed. |
| Labour sources say they would be likely to wait and see what she proposed before tabling a vote of no-confidence, in the hope of triggering a general election. “We’ll only get one shot at this,” one party strategist said. | Labour sources say they would be likely to wait and see what she proposed before tabling a vote of no-confidence, in the hope of triggering a general election. “We’ll only get one shot at this,” one party strategist said. |
| If the bid to trigger an election fails, “all options are on the table”, according to the motion hammered out over hours at the party’s conference in Liverpool in September. | If the bid to trigger an election fails, “all options are on the table”, according to the motion hammered out over hours at the party’s conference in Liverpool in September. |
| But Labour strategists believe they cannot get to the 45% or so of the vote they would need to win the next election if they are seen to represent only what they jokingly refer to as “Remoania”. | But Labour strategists believe they cannot get to the 45% or so of the vote they would need to win the next election if they are seen to represent only what they jokingly refer to as “Remoania”. |
| If MPs reject the deal, there are seven possible paths the country could go down next. | If MPs reject the deal, there are seven possible paths the country could go down next. |
| May brings it back to MPsPerhaps with minor tweaks after a dash to Brussels. MPs knuckle under and vote it through. | May brings it back to MPsPerhaps with minor tweaks after a dash to Brussels. MPs knuckle under and vote it through. |
| May resigns immediatelyIt is hard to imagine her surviving for long. After a rapid leadership contest, a different leader could appeal to a majority in parliament, perhaps by offering a softer deal. | May resigns immediatelyIt is hard to imagine her surviving for long. After a rapid leadership contest, a different leader could appeal to a majority in parliament, perhaps by offering a softer deal. |
| Tory backbenchers depose herJacob Rees-Mogg gets his way and there is a no-confidence vote. A new leader then tries to assemble a majority behind a tweaked deal. | Tory backbenchers depose herJacob Rees-Mogg gets his way and there is a no-confidence vote. A new leader then tries to assemble a majority behind a tweaked deal. |
| May calls a general electionMay could choose to take the ultimate gamble and hope that voters would back her deal, over the heads of squabbling MPs. | May calls a general electionMay could choose to take the ultimate gamble and hope that voters would back her deal, over the heads of squabbling MPs. |
| Labour tries to force an electionThe opposition tables a vote of no confidence. If May lost, the opposition (or a new Conservative leader) would have two weeks to form an alternative government that could win a second confidence vote. If they were unable to do so, a general election would be triggered. | Labour tries to force an electionThe opposition tables a vote of no confidence. If May lost, the opposition (or a new Conservative leader) would have two weeks to form an alternative government that could win a second confidence vote. If they were unable to do so, a general election would be triggered. |
| A second referendum gathers supportThis is most likely if Labour makes a last-ditch decision to back it. | A second referendum gathers supportThis is most likely if Labour makes a last-ditch decision to back it. |
| No dealThe EU (Withdrawal) Act specifies 29 March 2019 as Brexit day. Amber Rudd has said she believes parliament would stop a no deal, but it is not clear how it would do so. | No dealThe EU (Withdrawal) Act specifies 29 March 2019 as Brexit day. Amber Rudd has said she believes parliament would stop a no deal, but it is not clear how it would do so. |
| And some hold out the hope that Labour could pick up many of the leave-backing voters who feel sold out by the prime minister’s deal. | And some hold out the hope that Labour could pick up many of the leave-backing voters who feel sold out by the prime minister’s deal. |
| “They’re available to us provided we don’t sound like remainers,” one shadow cabinet minister said, adding that the party must also guard against the risk that these voters switch to Ukip. | “They’re available to us provided we don’t sound like remainers,” one shadow cabinet minister said, adding that the party must also guard against the risk that these voters switch to Ukip. |
| In the run-up to the 2017 general election, Labour’s then-pollsters, BMG, suggested the party needed to sound pro-Brexit, or risk alienating voters in a swath of heartland constituencies, two senior Labour figures who saw the report have told the Guardian – one of whom added: “We don’t think the picture’s changed that much since.” | In the run-up to the 2017 general election, Labour’s then-pollsters, BMG, suggested the party needed to sound pro-Brexit, or risk alienating voters in a swath of heartland constituencies, two senior Labour figures who saw the report have told the Guardian – one of whom added: “We don’t think the picture’s changed that much since.” |
| In Corbyn’s inner circle, the shadow home secretary, Diane Abbott, has told friends she is on a “vigil” against any move that could alienate Labour supporters in staunchly remain seats such as her constituency of Hackney North and Stoke Newington. However, the Hemsworth MP Jon Trickett is more exercised about the anxieties of northern leave voters. | In Corbyn’s inner circle, the shadow home secretary, Diane Abbott, has told friends she is on a “vigil” against any move that could alienate Labour supporters in staunchly remain seats such as her constituency of Hackney North and Stoke Newington. However, the Hemsworth MP Jon Trickett is more exercised about the anxieties of northern leave voters. |
| Labour’s determination to reject May’s Brexit deal when she brings it back to Westminster has been bolstered by private polling showing only 21% of voters believe it will be better than EU membership. | Labour’s determination to reject May’s Brexit deal when she brings it back to Westminster has been bolstered by private polling showing only 21% of voters believe it will be better than EU membership. |
| Internal research is telling the party that 42% of voters think the deal negotiated by the prime minister will be worse than staying in the EU; against only 21% who believe it will be better. Voters have also told Labour’s pollsters – by a two to one margin – that they support MPs’ right to vote it down if they think it is damaging for the country. | Internal research is telling the party that 42% of voters think the deal negotiated by the prime minister will be worse than staying in the EU; against only 21% who believe it will be better. Voters have also told Labour’s pollsters – by a two to one margin – that they support MPs’ right to vote it down if they think it is damaging for the country. |
| “This is a bad deal for the country,” said Corbyn on Sunday. “It is the result of a miserable failure of negotiation that leaves us with the worst of all worlds. It gives us less say over our future, and puts jobs and living standards at risk. | “This is a bad deal for the country,” said Corbyn on Sunday. “It is the result of a miserable failure of negotiation that leaves us with the worst of all worlds. It gives us less say over our future, and puts jobs and living standards at risk. |
| “That is why Labour will oppose this deal in parliament. We will work with others to block a no-deal outcome, and ensure that Labour’s alternative plan for a sensible deal to bring the country together is on the table.” | “That is why Labour will oppose this deal in parliament. We will work with others to block a no-deal outcome, and ensure that Labour’s alternative plan for a sensible deal to bring the country together is on the table.” |
| However, the majority of the public also say they want Brexit to be over and done with – a sentiment the prime minister has been keen to play on as she ramps up Downing Street’s bid to sell the deal to a wary public. | However, the majority of the public also say they want Brexit to be over and done with – a sentiment the prime minister has been keen to play on as she ramps up Downing Street’s bid to sell the deal to a wary public. |
| Nevertheless, a growing number of frontbenchers believe Labour may need to “swerve” towards a “people’s vote”, as one put it, if public opinion swings behind the idea; and the leadership will come under intense pressure from the party grassroots to do so. | Nevertheless, a growing number of frontbenchers believe Labour may need to “swerve” towards a “people’s vote”, as one put it, if public opinion swings behind the idea; and the leadership will come under intense pressure from the party grassroots to do so. |
| Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, said recently it was “more likely given the weakness of Theresa May’s position”. | Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, said recently it was “more likely given the weakness of Theresa May’s position”. |
| Abbott is among those shadow cabinet members who have publicly expressed concern about the risks of a second referendum. She told the BBC’s Nick Robinson last week: “People should be careful what they wish for, because my view is that if we had a second referendum tomorrow leave would win again and not only would leave win again but leave voters would say what didn’t you understand about leave winning the first time?” | Abbott is among those shadow cabinet members who have publicly expressed concern about the risks of a second referendum. She told the BBC’s Nick Robinson last week: “People should be careful what they wish for, because my view is that if we had a second referendum tomorrow leave would win again and not only would leave win again but leave voters would say what didn’t you understand about leave winning the first time?” |
| Keir Starmer, who said publicly last week he would vote remain if a second referendum were held, is keen to ensure the parliamentary Labour party is united behind any shift in policy. | Keir Starmer, who said publicly last week he would vote remain if a second referendum were held, is keen to ensure the parliamentary Labour party is united behind any shift in policy. |
| A general election would risk exposing the bitter tensions within the party about Brexit. The leadership is clear it would want to go into an election promising to press ahead with leaving the EU, but strike a less economically damaging deal. | A general election would risk exposing the bitter tensions within the party about Brexit. The leadership is clear it would want to go into an election promising to press ahead with leaving the EU, but strike a less economically damaging deal. |
| But a vocal cohort of Labour MPs could find it impossible to stand on a manifesto that did not state stopping Brexit as an aim. One MP campaigning vigorously for remain said: “I think it would rip the party apart, simple as that.” | But a vocal cohort of Labour MPs could find it impossible to stand on a manifesto that did not state stopping Brexit as an aim. One MP campaigning vigorously for remain said: “I think it would rip the party apart, simple as that.” |
| A small number could even seek to split from Labour and stand as “stop Brexit” independents. Some of Corbyn’s closest lieutenants are relaxed about that happening, believing official Labour candidates would beat them. | A small number could even seek to split from Labour and stand as “stop Brexit” independents. Some of Corbyn’s closest lieutenants are relaxed about that happening, believing official Labour candidates would beat them. |
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