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May accused of having 'head in sand' over Brexit making UK poorer - Politics live May accused of having 'head in sand' over Brexit making UK poorer - Politics live
(35 minutes later)
The European court of justice will deliver its judgment in the case about whether the UK can revoke article 50 next Tuesday.
#Brexit: Case C-621/18 Wightman on revocation of Article 50 - Advocate General Campos Sánchez-Bordona will deliver his opinion on 4th December
Jeremy Corbyn’s spokesman was keen to pour cold water on the idea that John McDonnell’s comment at a Guardian Live event last night, that a second referendum was an option Labour could “seize upon”, could mark a shift in Labour’s stance.
Asked about it after PMQs, he gave a prolix recitation of Labour’s position, as agreed at the party’s conference in Liverpool, that should the government lose the vote, and a general election not be called, “all options would be on the table”.
However, he insisted that, “we do not regard no deal as any kind of option” and declined to set out any others, aside from trying to rally parliament behind Labour’s alternative approach.
We’ve set our alternative plan for a deal that would work for the whole country. The key point is that the option of Labour’s alternative plan has to be on the table, and we believe there is majority support for it in parliament, and it would also command majority support in the country, across both Leave and Remain voters.
Asked whether Labour would immediately table a vote of no confidence in the government, if the vote on 11 December falls, he said:
If the government is unable to get its deal through parliament on something that’s absolutely crucial to its entire programme and to the future of the country, it will have lost the confidence of parliament in any case.
Corbyn’s spokesman repeated Labour’s opposition to a Norway-style deal - an option that appears to be gaining ground in Westminster. “We’ve said in relation to the Norway option that we just don’t think it works for Britain and we’ve said that all along,” he said.
Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, is now using a point of order to ask about the government’s decision to defy the binding Commons vote saying it must publish the full text of its legal advice on Brexit. He says John Bercow, the speaker, said at the time of the debate that the motion was binding.
He says a written statement today says Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, will make a statement to MPs on Monday. But he says he is deeply concerned about what Philip Hammond said this morning about the government refusing to publish the legal advice in full. (See 9.40am.)
Bercow says if Starmer is sure that ministers are not complying with the humble addresss, he could write to Bercow saying the House is subject to a contempt, and it will be for Bercow to deal with it. “I will not linger,”, he says.
(Bercow was just setting out the procedure, but he did so in such a way as to suggest the Starmer might not be wasting his time. And Starmer knew what the procedure is anyway, because he tried all this a year ago. See 10.57am. The point of order was really just about signalling what Labour will do next.)
Starmer signals Labour will seek debate accusing ministers of contempt of parliament over Brexit legal advice.
Nigel Dodds, the DUP leader at Westminster, says he agrees with Starmer. Bercow says Dodds could write to him too.
In a speech this morning David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, rejected the government’s claim that Brexit would make the UK poorer. He said:In a speech this morning David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, rejected the government’s claim that Brexit would make the UK poorer. He said:
Treasury forecasts in the past have almost never been right and have more often been dramatically wrong.Treasury forecasts in the past have almost never been right and have more often been dramatically wrong.
As the Press Association reports, Davis said predictions the UK economy would contract by 2.1% in the 18 months after the Leave vote were unfounded, with it actually growing by 2.8%. He also said that other negative forecasts around unemployment and family incomes were also unfounded.As the Press Association reports, Davis said predictions the UK economy would contract by 2.1% in the 18 months after the Leave vote were unfounded, with it actually growing by 2.8%. He also said that other negative forecasts around unemployment and family incomes were also unfounded.
None of this spine-chilling nonsense came to pass.None of this spine-chilling nonsense came to pass.
Davis suggested a Brexit scenario in which the UK reverts to a free trade deal with the EU based on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules could benefit the economy. “It would involve all the choking tentacles of the EU falling away,” he said. As the Press Association reports, Davis said UK exports to non-EU countries had grown four times faster than exports to the EU.Davis suggested a Brexit scenario in which the UK reverts to a free trade deal with the EU based on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules could benefit the economy. “It would involve all the choking tentacles of the EU falling away,” he said. As the Press Association reports, Davis said UK exports to non-EU countries had grown four times faster than exports to the EU.
The future of the UK economy does not lie with the EU but with the wider world.The future of the UK economy does not lie with the EU but with the wider world.
Here is more from John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, on the government’s Brexit impact analysis.Here is more from John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, on the government’s Brexit impact analysis.
We’re in the ludicrous position of seeing an analysis produced today on the economic implications of Brexit which is in fact an assessment of the Chequers proposals abandoned months ago.We’re in the ludicrous position of seeing an analysis produced today on the economic implications of Brexit which is in fact an assessment of the Chequers proposals abandoned months ago.
The government has been unable to assess the vague, half-baked deal the PM is promising, but what we do know is the latest proposals are worse than even the Chequers deal.The government has been unable to assess the vague, half-baked deal the PM is promising, but what we do know is the latest proposals are worse than even the Chequers deal.
What the analysis produced by the Treasury today does show us is that the Tories plans will leave the country poorer.What the analysis produced by the Treasury today does show us is that the Tories plans will leave the country poorer.
Theresa May’s spokesman was asked after PMQs whether the government accepted that all the Brexit scenarios modelled in the Whitehall analysis - including the prime minister’s deal - will make Britain poorer. He replied:Theresa May’s spokesman was asked after PMQs whether the government accepted that all the Brexit scenarios modelled in the Whitehall analysis - including the prime minister’s deal - will make Britain poorer. He replied:
I think what the prime minister said in there was that in all scenarios set out today the economy will continue to grow As the PM said, she believes she secured is the best available that’s consistent with the referendum - and today’s analysis backs that up.”I think what the prime minister said in there was that in all scenarios set out today the economy will continue to grow As the PM said, she believes she secured is the best available that’s consistent with the referendum - and today’s analysis backs that up.”
He added that the analysis doesn’t take into account “other decisions the government may make”, such as a souped-up industrial strategy.He added that the analysis doesn’t take into account “other decisions the government may make”, such as a souped-up industrial strategy.
Pressed further, the spokesman threw a revealing question back at journalists, asking:Pressed further, the spokesman threw a revealing question back at journalists, asking:
Do you believe that when elected politicians ask the view of the public in a referendum, those same politicians should just be able to ignore that instruction? A country in which politicians ignore the will of the people, in what was the biggest democratic exercise in our history risks becoming divided, and divided countries do not prosper.Do you believe that when elected politicians ask the view of the public in a referendum, those same politicians should just be able to ignore that instruction? A country in which politicians ignore the will of the people, in what was the biggest democratic exercise in our history risks becoming divided, and divided countries do not prosper.
In other words, as ministers can’t quite bring themselves to say, yes Brexit may make the economy poorer than it would otherwise have been; but voters made a decision that other factors - sovereignty, control of migration - were more important.In other words, as ministers can’t quite bring themselves to say, yes Brexit may make the economy poorer than it would otherwise have been; but voters made a decision that other factors - sovereignty, control of migration - were more important.
Here is Torsten Bell, the director of the Resolution Foundation, a thinktank focusing on inquality, on the government’s economic analysis.Here is Torsten Bell, the director of the Resolution Foundation, a thinktank focusing on inquality, on the government’s economic analysis.
We've got little idea where between and FTA and Chequers we'll end up even if negotiations proceed from current deal. But big picture the analysis accepts that something in that space means a big hit to GDP (3.9%) and (more importantly for living standards) to GDP/capita (2.7%) pic.twitter.com/0iqkljurJFWe've got little idea where between and FTA and Chequers we'll end up even if negotiations proceed from current deal. But big picture the analysis accepts that something in that space means a big hit to GDP (3.9%) and (more importantly for living standards) to GDP/capita (2.7%) pic.twitter.com/0iqkljurJF
Back in the Commons, where the UQ is still going on, the Labour MP Chuka Umunna raises the same point that that Anna Soubry did. (See 1.14pm.) He says he and Soubry tabled an amendment to the finance bill demanding a Brexit analysis, and they only withdrew it because the Treasury promised it would publish an analysis of the government’s plan. But today’s analysis does not provide that, he says. He suggests he and Soubry were “misled”.Back in the Commons, where the UQ is still going on, the Labour MP Chuka Umunna raises the same point that that Anna Soubry did. (See 1.14pm.) He says he and Soubry tabled an amendment to the finance bill demanding a Brexit analysis, and they only withdrew it because the Treasury promised it would publish an analysis of the government’s plan. But today’s analysis does not provide that, he says. He suggests he and Soubry were “misled”.
Stride says the government cannot model precisely what its plan will be because the political spectrum sets a framework covering a spectrum of outcomes.Stride says the government cannot model precisely what its plan will be because the political spectrum sets a framework covering a spectrum of outcomes.
David Henig, the trade specialist and former civil servant who heads the UK Trade Policy Project, has also posted useful thread on Twitter about the government’s economic analysis. He thinks it is “fraudulent”. His thread starts here.David Henig, the trade specialist and former civil servant who heads the UK Trade Policy Project, has also posted useful thread on Twitter about the government’s economic analysis. He thinks it is “fraudulent”. His thread starts here.
So the Government has modelled an imaginary scenario based on the Chequers proposals that the EU has rejected. The figures, which then show it isn't that different to remain, are therefore of little use... https://t.co/byMvjfMGA5 pic.twitter.com/lVtusOaP5zSo the Government has modelled an imaginary scenario based on the Chequers proposals that the EU has rejected. The figures, which then show it isn't that different to remain, are therefore of little use... https://t.co/byMvjfMGA5 pic.twitter.com/lVtusOaP5z
Kirsty Blackman, the SNP’s economic spokeswoman, has posted a useful thread on Twitter with excerpts from government’s Brexit economic analysis, with comment. It starts here.Kirsty Blackman, the SNP’s economic spokeswoman, has posted a useful thread on Twitter with excerpts from government’s Brexit economic analysis, with comment. It starts here.
Some excerpts from the UK Government’s Brexit analysis. (Short version: despite trying to manipulate the figures to make May’s deal look better, it still stinks)Some excerpts from the UK Government’s Brexit analysis. (Short version: despite trying to manipulate the figures to make May’s deal look better, it still stinks)
Here is the CBI reaction to the government’s Brexit impact assessment. It’s from the CBI’s chief economist, Rain Newton-Smith.Here is the CBI reaction to the government’s Brexit impact assessment. It’s from the CBI’s chief economist, Rain Newton-Smith.
These forecasts paint a bleak picture over the long-term of a no deal Brexit or a Canada-style deal. It surely puts to bed some of the more far-fetched ideas that a hard landing Brexit will not seriously hurt the economy.These forecasts paint a bleak picture over the long-term of a no deal Brexit or a Canada-style deal. It surely puts to bed some of the more far-fetched ideas that a hard landing Brexit will not seriously hurt the economy.
This is about real people’s lives and jobs in the years ahead and it’s clear to business that while the government’s deal is not perfect, it certainly fits the bill in reducing short-term uncertainty and opens up a route to a decent trade deal in the future.This is about real people’s lives and jobs in the years ahead and it’s clear to business that while the government’s deal is not perfect, it certainly fits the bill in reducing short-term uncertainty and opens up a route to a decent trade deal in the future.
The SNP has accused Theresa May of having her “head in the sand” because at PMQs she refused to agree with Philip Hammond, the chancellor, about Brexit making the UK poorer. (See 12.09pm and 12.22pm.)The SNP has accused Theresa May of having her “head in the sand” because at PMQs she refused to agree with Philip Hammond, the chancellor, about Brexit making the UK poorer. (See 12.09pm and 12.22pm.)
In response Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Wesminster, said:In response Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Wesminster, said:
The chancellor explained that every possible Brexit scenario will make the UK poorer, yes astoundingly, Theresa May denied these comments in prime minister’s questions.The chancellor explained that every possible Brexit scenario will make the UK poorer, yes astoundingly, Theresa May denied these comments in prime minister’s questions.
The chancellor’s comments chime with analysis published yesterday by the Scottish government, which shows that most likely outcome of the UK’s withdrawal agreement and political declaration on the future relationship with the EU will hit Scotland’s GDP growth by £9 billion, leaving every Scot £1,600 worse off.The chancellor’s comments chime with analysis published yesterday by the Scottish government, which shows that most likely outcome of the UK’s withdrawal agreement and political declaration on the future relationship with the EU will hit Scotland’s GDP growth by £9 billion, leaving every Scot £1,600 worse off.
No government should choose to weaken its economy and make its citizens poorer. Theresa May’s head is in the sand.No government should choose to weaken its economy and make its citizens poorer. Theresa May’s head is in the sand.
Anna Soubry, the Conservative pro-European, says the government promised MPs it would produce a modelled analysis of its proposed deal. But that promise has not been met, she says. She says on the basis of that promise she withdrew an amendment to a bill on this issue.
Stride says he does not accept that promises have been broken. The analysis is covers a spectrum of outcomes, because the political declaration is not specific, he says.
Nicky Morgan, the chair of the Commons Treasury committee, starts by complaining that John Bercow has called three Tory backbench men ahead of her, even though the Treasury analysis was demanded by her committee. She says the Bank of England will publish its analysis later. And Philip Hammond will give evidence to her committee next week, she says. She urges MPs to consider all the evidence before coming to a view.
Bercow says he almost always calls every MP who wants to speak in a UQ, unlike other speakers. He says MPs should not worry about when they are called. The three Tories he called ahead of her were the father of the House, and two former cabinet ministers, he says.
David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, asks Stride if he knows of any economic forecast that has got the figures right. Stride accepts such a forecast does not exist.
Hilary Benn, the Labour chair of the Brexit committee, asks what was the point of modelling an plan (Chequers) involving the UK staying effectively in the single market for goods when the EU has rejected this.
Stride says the political declaration makes it clear that the details of the future trade deal are yet to be negotiated.
John Redwood, a Conservative Brexiter, asks Stride if the government will publish figures showing the UK growth rate in the 25 years before it joined the EEC, and since it joined the single market in 1992. That will show how bad the EU has been for the UK.
Stride says he suspects Redwood has seen the figures already.
Ken Clarke, the Tory former chancellor, asks Stride to accept that it is not possible to leave a free trade area and introduce barriers to trade without making the UK poorer. He says it is obvious the UK should stay in the single market and the customs union.
John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, says the least that MPs could expect was an oral statement from the Philip Hammond.
He says we are now in the “ludicrous” position of having an economic analysis of plans based on the Chequers proposals, which the government has abandoned.
He asks Stride to confirm that the deal on offer is worse for the UK than Chequers.
He asks what assumptions the Treasury has made about extending the transition.
Mel Stride, a junior Treasury minister, is responding to the UQ.
The economic analysis has been published, he says. He says it is not a forecast.
It looks at five scenarios, he says. He says this analysis shows that the deal on the table is the best deal
Rachel Reeves, the Labour MP and chair of the business committee, raises a point of order. Why is Philip Hammond not hear to answer the UQ, she asks. She says he should be here on a such an urgent issue. He has had lots of time for broadcast interviews, she says.
Labour’s Liz Kendall says she has never heard a government say its policy will make people poorer. Is that what May came into politics for?
May says she does not accept this. The economic analysis shows the economy will continue to grow, she says.